AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 86% probability. The predicted margin of 25.4 was reasonable against the actual 15-point result. The game's 139 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 164. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
14%
Carlton
86%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 86%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Carlton ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Carlton carry a 73-point ELO rating advantage (1545 vs 1472). Recent form favours Carlton with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Carlton by 25.4 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.58
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.0%
Line / Spread
Carlton +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.0%
Total Points
Over 163.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | W W L L L | 104.9 |
Carlton | W W W L L | 74.6 |
Avg Conceded
89.0
St Kilda
77.0
Carlton
Avg Margin
23.8
St Kilda
7.2
Carlton
Disposals
353.8
St Kilda
378.4
Carlton
Inside 50s
54.0
St Kilda
44.0
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
86%
Carlton predicted to win by 25 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: -25.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.15
Team Effectiveness
+0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.