# St Kilda v Carlton — AFL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 62 – 77 Carlton

_Carlton see off St Kilda._

Half time: 40 – 54 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 14% / Carlton 86% · MCG · Fri, 09 May, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Max Hall (7' 1st), Anthony Caminiti (13'), Cooper Sharman (25' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mattaes Phillipou (48' ×2), Jack Higgins (51' Tipped ⚡), Jack Sinclair (71') · Carlton: Harry McKay (9' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Binns (17'), Charlie Curnow (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Lewis Young (39' ×2), Will White (45' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Lord (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 86% | Won |
| St Kilda | 14% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 25.4 predicted → 15 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 9, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 62–77 Carlton in AFL Round 9 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda will look at the tackle count and the marks tally and wonder how they still lost by 15. They out-tackled Carlton 74 to 69, they won the marking count 108 to 107, and inside 50s finished dead level at 46 apiece. On raw effort, this wasn't a beating. On the scoreboard, it was.

The trouble was what happened in between. Carlton won clearances 43 to 33 and contested possession 125 to 109, the sort of gap that lets a team pick when and how it wants to play. St Kilda had the ball in their hands plenty, 341 disposals to Carlton's 343 says as much, but they were fighting for it rather than winning it clean. Disposal efficiency told a similar story: St Kilda at 71.3 per cent, Carlton at 73.5. Small margins, but they add up over four quarters.

Getting it forward wasn't the issue. What happened once it arrived was. St Kilda managed only 8 marks inside 50 to Carlton's 13, and that's where the game was lost more than anywhere else. Same number of entries, but Carlton turned theirs into clean chances far more often. Hit-outs went Carlton's way too, 42 to 34, giving their midfield first use more often than not.

The scoreboard traces the same arc as the stats. Carlton led 27 to 24 at quarter time, a manageable gap. By half time it had stretched to 54 to 40, and the second quarter is where St Kilda's night really got away from them. Three-quarter time had Carlton up 62 to 48, and from there St Kilda could find only 14 more points while Carlton added 15. Final score: Carlton 77, St Kilda 62.

Carlton's win lines up with what the numbers said coming in. Their forward line was rated well ahead of St Kilda's, 1036 to 934, and their defence even more so, 1097 to 919. St Kilda arrived in the kind of scoring form that made them dangerous on paper, averaging 104.9 points a game across their last five to Carlton's 74.6, but that form had come with soft patches at the other end too, conceding 89 a game on average. Carlton, by contrast, had been grinding out narrow results, an average winning margin of just 7.2 points across their last five. This one was more comfortable than that trend suggested.

Alphr's model had Carlton favourites at 86 per cent, with a projected margin of 25.4 points and a combined score of 164. The actual margin of 15 points was well within range of a reasonable call, even if the model overstated it a touch. The bigger miss was the total: 139 points scored between the two sides, 25 fewer than tipped, in a game that was scrappier and lower-scoring than the pre-match numbers implied. Call it 2 from 3 on the night, and Carlton comfortably covered the 8.5-point line.

For St Kilda, the postmortem is straightforward enough: they matched or beat Carlton in tackles, marks and total disposals, but got outmuscled at the source (clearances, contested ball, hit-outs) and then let Carlton make the most damage of the entries forward of centre. Effort was there. Efficiency where it mattered wasn't, and that's the difference between 62 and 77 at the MCG.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 24 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 62 |
| Carlton | 27 | 27 | 8 | 15 | 77 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Disposals | **343** |
| 109 | Contested poss. | **125** |
| 33 | Clearances | **43** |
| 46 | Inside 50s | 46 |
| **108** | Marks | 107 |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| **74** | Tackles | 69 |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| 55 | Intercepts | **56** |
| 71.3% | Disposal eff. | **73.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 86% probability. The predicted margin of 25.4 was reasonable against the actual 15-point result. The game's 139 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 164. The model went 2/3 on this match. Carlton covered the 8.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.58 (edge +23.0%) — model probability 86.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 25 · Predicted total: 164

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 61 · 71 | 54 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 65/g | 90/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.6/g | 17.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.1/g | 7.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 66.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 33 | 26 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 174/g | 164/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.8/g | 25.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.8/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.3% | 68.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 3 | 16 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 14.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.7% | 73.6% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.51) +2% · Forwards 4.57/g (lg 4.49) +2% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.31) -4%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.44/g (lg 2.34) +4% · Key Forwards 3.31/g (lg 3.6) -8% · Forwards 4.04/g (lg 4.49) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 21 in 8g | 26/10g (3·2·2·4·3·3·2·3·3·1) | 10/6g | 40/31g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.62 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 14 in 7g | 17/10g (1·2·0·2·4·2·0·3·0·3) | 2/3g | 3/5g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 11 in 6g | 15/10g (0·2·2·0·2·1·3·0·1·4) | 2/3g | 3/4g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' 70' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 7 in 8g | 7/8g (2·0·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 63% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·3·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 6/19g | 30% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/14g | 43/62g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 56% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 6/13g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 4/18g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 6/23g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 2/3g | 1/4g | 53% | — | 🏉 48' 78' |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 15 in 7g | 19/10g (3·0·1·0·3·1·2·4·3·2) | 10/7g | 105/51g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 20' 36' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 9 in 4g | 11/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·4·2·1·2) | 1/3g | 10/18g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·3·1·0·2) | 8/13g | 39/82g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·3·0·1) | 6/4g | 10/19g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 57% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 4/11g | 14/42g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Will White | FWD | 5 in 5g | 5/5g (0·1·3·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.58 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 4 in 4g | 19/10g (5·3·2·1·1·3·1·0·3·0) | 10/7g | 93/45g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 90' 91' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 15/44g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/21g | 12% | — | 🏉 39' 54' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 11/31g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 14/36g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 7g | 7/10g (0·4·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 34/50g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/18g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 15/29g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 11/9g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·2·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 27/39g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/59g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/69g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Binns | MID | no games | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 67% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/26g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae | 27.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 23 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 25.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 30 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 19 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie | 19.5 | $1.77 | 63% | 16 ✓ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.79 | 86% | 12 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall | 17.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 19 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | 28.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 26 ✓ |
| Sam Walsh | 27.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 21 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 26.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 26 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 24.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 21.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 20 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 19.5 | $1.86 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning | 18.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 21 ✗ |
| Elijah Hollands | 17.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 17 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)