AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 86% probability. The predicted margin of 25.4 was reasonable against the actual 15-point result. The game's 139 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 164. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
14%
Carlton
86%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 86%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. St Kilda are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Carlton counter with Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form which tips the scales. St Kilda carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1510 vs 1485). Recent form favours Carlton with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Carlton by 25.4 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.58
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.0%
Line / Spread
Carlton +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.0%
Total Points
Over 163.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WWLLL | 78.8 |
Carlton | WWWLL | 92.8 |
Avg Conceded
92.0
St Kilda
74.0
Carlton
Avg Margin
-13.2
St Kilda
18.8
Carlton
Disposals
356.0
St Kilda
374.0
Carlton
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Kilda hold the ELO advantage (1510 vs 1485), but the market favours Carlton (@1.58).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
86%
Carlton predicted to win by 25 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: -25.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.15
Team Effectiveness
+0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.