# Richmond v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 81 – 79 West Coast Eagles

_Richmond hold off a gallant West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 49 – 48 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 76% / West Coast Eagles 24% · MCG · Sun, 11 May, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Tom Lynch (8' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Tim Taranto (18'), Seth Campbell (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Sims (40' Tipped ⚡), Rhyan Mansell (62' ×2), Toby Nankervis (96'), Hugo Ralphsmith (69') · West Coast Eagles: Jamie Cripps (28' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jayden Hunt (31'), Jake Waterman (36' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Owies (46'), Bailey Williams (50' ×2), Tyler Brockman (77'), Harley Reid (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 76% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 81–79 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 9 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond beat West Coast Eagles 81-79 at the MCG. Two points, which sounds like a coin toss decided it. It didn't quite work that way.

Richmond led by seven at quarter time, 22-15. By half time that was down to one, 49-48. By the three-quarter break it had crept back out to four, 69-65. Then West Coast clawed within two by the final siren. A lead that shrank, steadied, and nearly disappeared again. That's a more honest description of this game than the final margin gives you.

The clearest explanation sits in the contested ball. Richmond won that fight 143 to 130, and turned it into 54 inside 50s against West Coast's 50. West Coast were competitive at the coalface in other ways, edging clearances 35 to 34, and hit-outs were close too, Richmond's ruck getting 40 to West Coast's 38. But Richmond's extra territory and extra intercepts, 65 to 56, gave them the ball in better spots more often. In a two-point game that matters more than any single passage anyone will remember.

West Coast's answer was pressure. They laid 71 tackles to Richmond's 56, a gap of 15, and that's the kind of number that usually drags a team back into a contest it should have lost by more. It's a big part of why a seven-point buffer kept getting eaten into instead of Richmond just cruising home. Disposal efficiency was almost identical, 68.5% for West Coast against 68.1% for Richmond, so neither side was butchering it by hand. This was a tackling and turnover arm-wrestle as much as anything else.

The form line going in didn't match the ratings line. West Coast rated stronger across the park: 1022 to 905 in midfield, 990 to 961 forward, 1019 to 967 in defence, 981 to 916 in the ruck. On paper this should have been comfortable for the Eagles. But recent form told a different story. Richmond had been scoring at 107.6 a game to West Coast's 83.3, even though West Coast's actual win rate and average margin over the last five had been the healthier of the two. Two different pictures of the same two teams, and on the night the scoring form read more true than the positional ratings did.

Alphr's model liked Richmond at 76% and picked them by 8.7 points, with a combined total of 164. The margin landed at two, the total at 160. Both close enough to call it a good read, not a lucky one, and the win itself completed a clean sweep on this one for the model.

Not a classic for the highlights reel, but a proper contest right to the end, the kind where the team that led first had to keep finding an answer, and just about did.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 22 | 27 | 20 | 12 | 81 |
| West Coast Eagles | 15 | 33 | 17 | 14 | 79 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **352** | Disposals | 331 |
| **143** | Contested poss. | 130 |
| 34 | Clearances | **35** |
| **54** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| **73** | Marks | 72 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **11** |
| 56 | Tackles | **71** |
| **40** | Hit-outs | 38 |
| **65** | Intercepts | 56 |
| 68.1% | Disposal eff. | **68.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Richmond to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 8.7 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 164 was close to the actual 160, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $1.44 (edge +6.3%) — model probability 75.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 9 · Predicted total: 164

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 51 · 78 | 62 · 90 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 74/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.4/g | 20.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.5/g | 8.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.4% | 67.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 29 | 9 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 90/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.6/g | 11.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71% | 72.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 14 | 3 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.9/g | 11.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.9% | 70.1% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.83/g (lg 0.5) +66% · Midfielders 3.59/g (lg 2.38) +51% · Key Forwards 4.81/g (lg 3.59) +34%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.7/g (lg 3.59) +31% · Midfielders 2.74/g (lg 2.38) +15% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.5) +8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 12 in 8g | 12/10g (0·0·2·2·3·2·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 8/16g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 48' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 9 in 7g | 13/10g (1·3·0·1·1·1·1·2·3·0) | 33/10g | 145/63g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.88 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 44' |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 7 in 7g | 7/7g (2·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/4g | 71% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 7/7g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 6/9g | 25/41g | 46% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/41g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 30/106g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 21/34g | 60% | — | 🏉 62' 92' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 25/84g | 18% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 3 in 8g | 7/10g (3·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/14g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/17g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/28g | 24% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 7/31g | 24% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 17/98g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/21g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 7/31g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/84g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 16/132g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 24/50g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $21.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 11 in 5g | 23/10g (3·4·1·2·2·2·0·4·2·3) | 10/7g | 8/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.62 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 10 in 8g | 13/10g (1·2·0·1·2·2·1·1·1·2) | 16/12g | 34/25g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' 61' 83' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 9 in 6g | 12/10g (2·1·0·0·3·1·2·0·3·0) | 7/5g | 8/8g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 4 in 8g | 8/10g (3·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/5g | 43/34g | 76% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 4 in 7g | 10/10g (5·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 10/4g | 10/7g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $2.00 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 7/4g | 8/9g | 42% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/11g | 22/63g | 24% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/5g | 16% | — | 🏉 50' 81' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 29/72g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 8g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 32/67g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/10g | 21/22g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 27.5 | $1.93 | 55% | 27 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 27.5 | $1.86 | 60% | 24 ✓ |
| Jayden Short | 21.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 0 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 20.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 18 ✓ |
| Thomson Dow | 20.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 14 ✓ |
| Sam Banks | 17.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 28 ✗ |
| Luke Trainor ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 18 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.85 | 49% | 18 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.81 | 73% | 25 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 23.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 22 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 22.5 | $1.95 | 38% | 12 ✓ |
| Brady Hough ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.85 | 80% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 18.5 | $1.95 | 47% | 20 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan | 18.5 | $1.88 | 43% | 20 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 17.5 | $1.98 | 32% | 18 ✗ |
| Elijah Hewett | 16.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-richmond-v-west-coast-eagles
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)