AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Richmond to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 8.7 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 164 was close to the actual 160, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
76%
West Coast Eagles
24%
AI Match Overview
Richmond are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. West Coast Eagles are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Richmond counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. West Coast Eagles carry a 78-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1444). The margin model predicts Richmond by 8.7 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Richmond to Win @1.44
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.3%
Line / Spread
Richmond -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.3%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | W W L L L | 107.6 |
West Coast Eagles | W W L L L | 83.3 |
Avg Conceded
88.4
Richmond
96.0
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
-3.2
Richmond
22.9
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
379.1
Richmond
339.5
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
53.0
Richmond
44.1
West Coast Eagles
ELO–Market Disagreement
West Coast Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1523 vs 1444), but the market favours Richmond (@1.44).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Richmond predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: +8.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.09
Team Effectiveness
+0.11
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.