# Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 84 – 89 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows peck holes in a gallant Port Adelaide._

Half time: 45 – 50 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 48% / Adelaide Crows 52% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 10 May, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Jeremy Finlayson (15' ×3), Mitch Georgiades (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Byrne-Jones (27' ×2), Sam Powell-Pepper (33' ×2), Ryan Burton (50'), Connor Rozee (71'), Jason Horne-Francis (89') · Adelaide Crows: Josh Rachele (6' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (23' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (36' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (39'), Izak Rankine (70' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 52% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.6 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 84–89 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 9 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide did almost everything you'd want, on paper. Fifty-six clearances to 29. Sixty-two inside 50s to 41. Three hundred and forty-eight disposals, a full 31 more than the Crows managed. Any coach shown that stat sheet without the score attached would assume it belonged to the winning team.

It didn't. Port lost by 5, going down 84-89 at Adelaide Oval, and the numbers that actually mattered were the ones further down the sheet.

Adelaide led from the first change and never gave it back. Twenty-two to 19 at quarter time, 50-45 at the main break, 68-66 at three-quarter time. Port had the ball more, went forward more, and still spent the whole afternoon chasing. That's the story of a team that can win the territory battle and still lose the game.

The gap shows up in what happened once the ball got inside 50, and what happened when it didn't. Adelaide laid 77 tackles to Port's 59, the kind of pressure number that turns clean Port possession into scrambled Port possession. And the Crows picked off 72 intercepts to Port's 56, meaning all that inside-50 traffic kept turning over before it did any damage. Marks inside 50 tell the same story in miniature: 13 to 12, next to nothing in it, which means Port's volume forward of centre wasn't converting into any more genuine shots at goal than Adelaide's far more modest incursions.

Going in, the ratings had Port stronger everywhere it's meant to count: midfield 1104 to 942, forwards 1022 to 949, defence 1019 to 925, ruck 1041 to 950. Every one of those numbers said Port should have been the better side, and the clearance count backed that up completely. But rating edges in the guts of the ground count for little if the other mob is turning you over 72 times and tackling you into giving the ball up cheap, and that's exactly what wore Port down across four quarters.

Adelaide's form line explains why they had the composure to hold a lead all day. Coming in they'd averaged 104.9 points a game to Port's 94.1, and their average margin over the last five was plus-12.6 against Port's minus-2.4. That's a side used to being in front and comfortable staying there, and it showed in a contest they never trailed.

Alphr's model had Adelaide as 52 per cent favourites and picked them to win by 4.6. They won by 5. The model also pegged the total at 153, and this one blew past that, finishing at 173, a high-scoring arm wrestle that still landed almost exactly where the ratings said it would. Three from three for the model: winner, margin and total all close enough to call it a clean sweep.

Port will look at that disposal count and the clearance count and wonder how you lose a game like that. The answer's in the tackle count and the intercepts.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 19 | 26 | 21 | 18 | 84 |
| Adelaide Crows | 22 | 28 | 18 | 21 | 89 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| **348** | Disposals | 317 |
| **148** | Contested poss. | 135 |
| **56** | Clearances | 29 |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 41 |
| 74 | Marks | **79** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| 59 | Tackles | **77** |
| 38 | Hit-outs | **46** |
| 56 | Intercepts | **72** |
| 69.2% | Disposal eff. | **70.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 52% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Adelaide Crows by 4.6 vs the actual margin of 5 points. The game's 173 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 153. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.38 (edge -20.9%) — model probability 51.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +16.5 @ $1.91 (edge -20.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 5 · Predicted total: 153

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 63 · 68 | 92 · 59 |
| Goal Assists | 4.9/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 18/g | 19.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.1/g | 10.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 71.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 25 | 28 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 145/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.5/g | 25.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 71% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 16 | 4 · 6 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.6/g | 9.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79% | 79.9% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.43/g (lg 1.31) +9% · Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.38) +4% · Forwards 4.37/g (lg 4.45) -2%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.56/g (lg 1.31) +19% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.5) +6% · Forwards 4.51/g (lg 4.45) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 18 in 8g | 22/10g (3·1·0·4·2·3·3·3·2·1) | 6/5g | 72/42g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 37' |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 10 in 8g | 13/10g (2·1·0·3·0·1·2·2·1·1) | 9/13g | 64/81g | 76% | — | 🏉 33' 73' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (0·2·0·1·1·2·0·1·3·0) | 3/16g | 34/111g | 64% | — | 🏉 27' 88' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·3·0·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 30/32g | 68% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 7 in 5g | 13/10g (2·1·1·1·1·3·1·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 17/12g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 6 in 8g | 9/10g (1·2·0·2·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 7/11g | 75/74g | 48% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·2·0) | 1/1g | 5/4g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/27g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/22g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/20g | 54/130g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 10/64g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Finlayson | KF | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 49/35g | 60% | — | 🏉 15' 59' 92' |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 23/54g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 11/50g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/57g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | no games | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jed McEntee | FWD | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/4g | 13/27g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/36g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Burton | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 12/63g | 24% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 29/67g | 32% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 20 in 8g | 24/10g (1·3·3·3·3·5·1·1·3·1) | 8/6g | 43/36g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 43' 78' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 18 in 7g | 25/10g (5·2·0·4·3·2·3·4·0·2) | 12/8g | 105/63g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 86' 67' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 17 in 8g | 20/10g (1·2·1·1·4·4·2·2·2·1) | 44/19g | 274/121g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 90% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 14 in 8g | 16/10g (1·1·1·4·2·1·3·1·0·2) | 5/13g | 52/66g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' 82' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 10 in 8g | 13/10g (1·2·2·2·0·0·2·1·1·2) | 12/5g | 53/28g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' 71' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 9 in 5g | 19/10g (3·1·3·2·1·2·4·0·1·2) | 4/4g | 45/35g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 62' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 8 in 8g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 4/10g | 9/17g | 50% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 16/39g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 4/9g | 22/46g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/10g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/13g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/31g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/39g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 18/60g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/41g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/17g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 7/71g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 18/130g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/33g | 16% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.85 | 75% | 32 ✗ |
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 33 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 24.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 31 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.92 | 72% | 20 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell | 18.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 15 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 18.5 | $1.86 | 44% | 19 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 18 ✗ |
| Ryan Burton | 15.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 17 ✗ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 14 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 18 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 74% | 16 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 24 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo | 20.5 | $2.00 | 51% | 17 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 18.5 | $1.85 | 52% | 11 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera | 17.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)