AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 52% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Adelaide Crows by 4.6 vs the actual margin of 5 points. The game's 173 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 153. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
48%
Adelaide Crows
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Adelaide Crows a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Adelaide Crows counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 83-point ELO rating advantage (1558 vs 1475). The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 4.6 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-20.9%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-20.9%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W W L L | 94.1 |
Adelaide Crows | W W W L L | 104.9 |
Avg Conceded
93.8
Port Adelaide
89.6
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-2.4
Port Adelaide
12.6
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
330.6
Port Adelaide
364.5
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
43.8
Port Adelaide
46.9
Adelaide Crows
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1558 vs 1475), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.38).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: -4.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
-0.15
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.