AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 52% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Adelaide Crows by 4.6 vs the actual margin of 5 points. The game's 173 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 153. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
48%
Adelaide Crows
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Adelaide Crows a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Adelaide Crows carry a 167-point ELO rating advantage (1643 vs 1476). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 4.6 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-20.9%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-20.9%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WWWLL | 83.2 |
Adelaide Crows | WWLLL | 83.8 |
Avg Conceded
95.2
Port Adelaide
75.8
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-12.0
Port Adelaide
8.0
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
331.4
Port Adelaide
360.0
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: -4.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
-0.15
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.