AI Game Review
The match ended in a draw (71–71), a rare result the model's 93% forecast for Brisbane Lions didn't account for. The margin model missed here, predicting 34.1 but the actual margin was 0 points. Total score prediction of 145 was close to the actual 142, within 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 176.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
7%
Brisbane Lions
93%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 80-point ELO rating advantage (1491 vs 1411). Recent form favours North Melbourne with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 34.1 points with a combined total of 145.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.09
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.1%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions +41.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.1%
Total Points
Under 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | W W W W L | 81.5 |
Brisbane Lions | W W W L L | 72.7 |
Avg Conceded
80.9
North Melbourne
80.4
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
9.4
North Melbourne
15.5
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
341.1
North Melbourne
359.9
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.9
North Melbourne
54.7
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 34 points
Predicted total: 145 · Line: -34.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.02
Team Effectiveness
-0.21
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.