# North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 71 – 71 Brisbane Lions

_North Melbourne and Brisbane Lions can't be separated._

Half time: 20 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 7% / Brisbane Lions 93% · Ninja Stadium · Sun, 11 May, 04:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Cameron Zurhaar (5' 1st), George Wardlaw (33'), Dylan Stephens (80'), Nick Larkey (82' Tipped ⚡), Jack Darling (67' ×2), Luke Parker (73'), Jacob Konstanty (77') · Brisbane Lions: Cam Rayner (18' ×3), Eric Hipwood (40' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Callum Ah Chee (53' Tipped ⚡), Charlie Cameron (86' Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (81' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 93% | Draw |
| North Melbourne | 7% | Draw |

Model call: **Draw** · Margin: 34.1 predicted → 0 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 71–71 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 9 at Ninja Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne trailed by 20 points at half time, 40 to 20, and looked to be heading for the kind of afternoon Brisbane Lions' form suggested was coming. Then the third quarter happened. North Melbourne won it 22 to 11, cutting the margin to nine points at the last change, and from there they refused to let Brisbane pull clear again. By full time the ledger read 71 to 71. A draw, at Ninja Stadium, with North Melbourne finishing the stronger side across the last two quarters.

The turnaround wasn't a fluke of scoreboard pressure. North Melbourne won clearances 47 to 32 and contested possession 139 to 123, and that's where a game like this gets rescued from the middle of the ground. Brisbane had first use of it through the opening two quarters, but once North Melbourne started winning it at the source, the Lions' forward line had less to work with.

Brisbane still finished with the cleaner numbers across the board. More disposals, 360 to 336. Better disposal efficiency, 68.9 per cent to 65.4. More marks, 94 to 71, and more intercepts, 70 to 64. On paper that's the profile of a side that should have won comfortably. Instead they matched North Melbourne's 51 inside 50s exactly and were level on marks inside 50 at 13 apiece, and when the entries even up, clean use of it in the middle only takes you so far.

North Melbourne's ruck actually came off second best in the hit-out count, beaten 41 to 38, though it barely showed given how much ground they made up at the coalface anyway. Tackles told a similar story to the disposal numbers, with Brisbane laying 66 to North Melbourne's 57, pressure that didn't convert into the separation it should have.

Brisbane came in rated stronger everywhere that matters on paper. Midfield 931 to 857, forwards 1022 to 901, defence 987 to 920. The one exception was the ruck, where North Melbourne actually held a narrow edge pre-game, 958 to 943, and it's not a stretch to say the contested ball battle that swung this match traces back to that edge doing its job at stoppages all day.

Recent form pointed the same way going in. Brisbane's last five had them winning more often and by bigger margins, 15.49 points to North Melbourne's 9.43, with higher disposal and inside 50 counts per game as well. North Melbourne's edge in that form line was scoring output, 81.45 points a game to Brisbane's 72.7, and on this occasion that scoring habit is exactly what got them home level rather than short.

Alphr's model had Brisbane at 93 per cent to win this one, with an expected margin of 34.1 points and a combined score of 145. None of that survived contact. The draw wiped out the margin call completely, actual margin zero against a predicted 34.1, though the total score projection held up well, just three points off the actual 142. The under 176.5 total call landed. Two out of three isn't a bad return for a match that ended in one of the rarer results the code can produce, but it's a reminder that even a well-rated favourite can run into a side that simply wins the fight at ground level for three quarters running.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 6 | 14 | 22 | 29 | 71 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15 | 25 | 11 | 20 | 71 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Disposals | **360** |
| **139** | Contested poss. | 123 |
| **47** | Clearances | 32 |
| 51 | Inside 50s | 51 |
| 71 | Marks | **94** |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| 57 | Tackles | **66** |
| 38 | Hit-outs | **41** |
| 64 | Intercepts | **70** |
| 65.4% | Disposal eff. | **68.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

The match ended in a draw (71–71), a rare result the model's 93% forecast for Brisbane Lions didn't account for. The margin model missed here, predicting 34.1 but the actual margin was 0 points. Total score prediction of 145 was close to the actual 142, within 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 176.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.09 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 92.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 34 · Predicted total: 145

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 62 · 85 | 72 · 65 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 86/g | 83/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 18.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.5/g | 9.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 65.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 28 | 26 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 141/g | 167/g |
| Inside 50s | 19/g | 25.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.8% | 68.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 16 | 7 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 141/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.8/g | 12.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 80.1% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.39/g (lg 4.45) -1% · Key Forwards 3.39/g (lg 3.59) -6% · Midfielders 2.1/g (lg 2.38) -12%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.7/g (lg 0.5) +40% · Defenders 1.76/g (lg 1.31) +34% · Forwards 5.85/g (lg 4.45) +31%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ninja Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 20 in 8g | 21/10g (1·0·5·3·4·2·2·1·1·2) | 11/6g | 46/20g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 82' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 13 in 8g | 14/10g (0·1·1·4·1·1·1·1·2·2) | 4/6g | 29/18g | 80% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (0·2·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 28/13g | 3/3g | 70% | — | 🏉 67' 84' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 7 in 8g | 10/10g (0·3·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·2) | 3/10g | 13/22g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 6 in 8g | 9/10g (0·3·0·1·0·2·0·2·1·0) | 16/13g | 2/3g | 44% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 4 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 5/4g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 8/17g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/4g | 10/12g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/15g | 28% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 40% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 1/12g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 3/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 41% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 16 in 8g | 18/10g (1·1·1·2·1·1·5·2·4·0) | 11/8g | 1/1g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 42' 69' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 15 in 8g | 17/10g (2·0·4·1·1·3·3·0·3·0) | 7/8g | 1/1g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 13 in 7g | 17/10g (0·2·2·1·3·1·2·4·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 11 in 8g | 18/10g (3·4·1·3·0·1·2·0·1·3) | 4/8g | 0/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 7 in 6g | 14/10g (2·2·2·1·1·3·0·0·0·3) | 22/13g | 6/3g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 5 in 8g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·2·2·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 18' 48' 86' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 4/14g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 10/9g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/17g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 8/10g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 0 in 3g | 14/10g (0·2·3·2·2·1·4·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.92 | 64% | 29 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.84 | 66% | 32 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 23.5 | $1.91 | 48% | 18 ✓ |
| Luke Parker ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 66% | 23 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 21.5 | $1.60 | 48% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom Powell | 20.5 | $1.79 | 62% | 16 ✓ |
| George Wardlaw | 18.5 | $1.94 | 44% | 19 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri | 17.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 19 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 28.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 26 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.82 | 65% | 27 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 24.5 | $1.76 | 51% | 39 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 23.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 27 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 20.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 20 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 25 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 18.5 | $1.88 | 46% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)