Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
7%
Hawthorn
93%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1520). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 45.3 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.1%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +23.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.1%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W L L L | 103.6 |
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 99.7 |
Avg Conceded
81.8
Melbourne
77.2
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-3.6
Melbourne
13.1
Hawthorn
Disposals
358.0
Melbourne
376.5
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
49.3
Melbourne
56.1
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 45 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: -45.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.08
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.