# Melbourne v Hawthorn — AFL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 56 – 91 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn see off Melbourne._

Half time: 34 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 7% / Hawthorn 93% · MCG · Sat, 10 May, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Harvey Langford (8' ×3), Tom Sparrow (23'), Kysaiah Pickett (51' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Sharp (78') · Hawthorn: Lloyd Meek (4' 1st), Luke Breust (12' Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (41' Tipped ⚡), Josh Ward (69'), Jack Ginnivan (85' Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (65' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mabior Chol (73' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Josh Weddle (86')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 93% | Won |
| Melbourne | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 45.3 predicted → 35 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Melbourne 56–91 Hawthorn in AFL Round 9 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven points to 41. That's what Melbourne managed in the last quarter against Hawthorn's tally, and it turned a one-point arm wrestle into a 35-point beating, Hawthorn winning 91-56 at the MCG.

Up until that final term, this had been about as even as footy gets. Melbourne led the clearance count all day and led it well, 38 to 27, and their ruck division dominated, 42 hit-outs to 27. At three-quarter time Hawthorn were up by a single point, 50-49, after trailing 34-35 at the main break. Nothing in that arc suggested what was coming.

Then Hawthorn found another gear and Melbourne simply didn't have one to match. Whatever was happening around the contest, Hawthorn were doing more with it. Disposal efficiency tells that story on its own: Hawthorn at 79.0% to Melbourne's 74.2%. Add in 14 marks inside 50 to Melbourne's 8, and you've got a team taking fewer chances but making almost every one count where it matters.

Melbourne's game was built on pressure and contest, not polish. Sixty-one tackles to 44, contested possessions 129 to 117, clearances won comfortably. All good indicators, all evidence of effort. None of it converted to scoreboard pressure in that last quarter, and that's the bit that actually decides games.

Hawthorn's edge in the intercept count, 73 to 66, matters more in hindsight than it looked at the time. Winning the ball back in the right areas and then hitting targets at nearly 80% efficiency is a recipe for exactly the kind of final-term surge that happened. Melbourne had the grunt work covered. Hawthorn had the finishing.

None of this should come as a total shock given the pre-match numbers. Hawthorn rated stronger everywhere it counted: midfield 1075 to 998, forwards 1076 to 1056, ruck 1034 to 1011. Their recent form carried a positive average margin of plus-13, against Melbourne sitting on minus-3.6. The model had Hawthorn at 93% to win, expected a 45.3-point margin and a combined total near 153. The actual margin, 35, and total, 147, both landed close enough to call it a clean read.

Melbourne will look at the clearance and hit-out numbers and wonder how a team can win those battles so clearly and still lose by five goals plus. The answer's in the conversion, or lack of it, when the ball actually got forward. Winning the fight for it counts for nothing if the other side finishes better.

Hawthorn move on with a result that matches the pre-match rating gap almost exactly. Melbourne move on with a stat sheet full of promising numbers and a scoreboard that ignored every one of them in the final quarter.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 15 | 19 | 15 | 7 | 56 |
| Hawthorn | 21 | 14 | 15 | 41 | 91 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 364 | Disposals | **372** |
| **129** | Contested poss. | 117 |
| **38** | Clearances | 27 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **50** |
| 98 | Marks | 98 |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| **61** | Tackles | 44 |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 27 |
| 66 | Intercepts | **73** |
| 74.2% | Disposal eff. | **79.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 93% probability. The predicted margin of 45.3 was reasonable against the actual 35-point result. Total score prediction of 153 was close to the actual 147, within 6 points. Hawthorn led 34–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 35. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.25 (edge +13.1%) — model probability 93.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 45 · Predicted total: 153

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 49 · 74 | 71 · 56 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 88/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.4/g | 16.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5/g | 10.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.6% | 68.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 25 | 23 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 142/g | 150/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 23.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.4% | 72.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 10 | 18 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 130/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.3/g | 14.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.2% | 79.9% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.55/g (lg 1.31) +18% · Key Forwards 3.64/g (lg 3.6) +1% · Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.37) +0%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.5) +42% · Defenders 1.32/g (lg 1.31) +1% · Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.37) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 10 in 8g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·2·1) | 9/13g | 93/99g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 9 in 8g | 10/10g (0·1·0·3·1·0·0·2·2·1) | 3/4g | 34/39g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 9 in 5g | 18/10g (1·2·4·0·2·0·2·5·1·1) | 10/6g | 83/55g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 74' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 7 in 7g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·2·2) | 14/8g | 124/76g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 5 in 4g | 11/10g (1·0·0·0·4·1·1·1·0·3) | 0/0g | 11/12g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 6/10g | 26/65g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 35% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 43% | — | 🏉 8' 58' 73' |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 4 in 5g | 9/10g (1·0·0·3·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 5/3g | 41/29g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 19/52g | 28% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 6/15g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/37g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Jefferson | KF | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (2·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/5g | 29/48g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 22/99g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/13g | 59/117g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/56g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 15/95g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/30g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 6/64g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 78/126g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 20 in 6g | 27/10g (5·1·1·0·2·2·6·3·4·3) | 22/12g | 212/112g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' 71' 85' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 15 in 8g | 16/10g (0·1·1·2·3·0·1·3·3·2) | 4/5g | 32/26g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' 78' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 12 in 8g | 19/10g (4·3·0·3·2·1·0·2·1·3) | 1/1g | 23/12g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 53' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 8 in 8g | 9/10g (0·1·2·3·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 45/45g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/10g | 11/70g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 6 in 7g | 11/10g (2·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·2·2) | 1/4g | 55/41g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/11g | 31/72g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 5 in 6g | 10/10g (0·3·2·0·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 4/3g | 22/31g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/18g | 32% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 11/34g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 8/21g | 34% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 5/22g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 7/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 9/45g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 20/52g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Luke Breust | FWD | 2 in 4g | 8/10g (1·2·0·2·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 33/16g | 248/131g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/22g | 10% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 10/28g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/21g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Henry Hustwaite | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/8g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 14/60g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 3/17g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.65 | 74% | 26 ✓ |
| Clayton Oliver | 25.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Trent Rivers | 21.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 23 ✗ |
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 28 ✗ |
| Max Gawn ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 19 ✓ |
| Harvey Langford ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.79 | 72% | 22 ✗ |
| Christian Salem | 20.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 19 ✓ |
| Ed Langdon | 20.5 | $1.87 | 42% | 21 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 26.5 | $1.83 | 53% | 19 ✓ |
| James Worpel | 23.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 23.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 21.5 | $1.89 | 51% | 24 ✗ |
| Josh Battle ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 22 ✗ |
| Henry Hustwaite ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 93% | 8 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 19.5 | $1.91 | 52% | 26 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)