# Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 106 – 96 Western Bulldogs

_Gold Coast SUNS eclipse a gallant Western Bulldogs._

Half time: 44 – 37 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 63% / Western Bulldogs 37% · TIO Stadium · Sat, 10 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Will Graham (9' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Daniel Rioli (18'), Sam Flanders (24' ×2), Ben Ainsworth (43'), Ben King (51' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (70' Tipped ⚡), Matt Rowell (72'), Sam Clohesy (90'), Final quarter (33m 9s)Nick Holman (61'), John Noble (76') · Western Bulldogs: Matthew Kennedy (11' ×2), Rhylee West (27' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ryley Sanders (52'), Laitham Vandermeer (63' ×2), Ed Richards (66'), Buku Khamis (76'), Sam Davidson (81' ×2), Lachlan McNeil (82'), Marcus Bontempelli (88' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 63% | Won |
| Western Bulldogs | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 106–96 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 9 at TIO Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Start with the ledger the Western Bulldogs will look at twice. Three hundred and ninety-nine disposals to 353, an efficiency rate of 74.8% against the Suns' 71.1%, and 100 marks to 74. On paper, that's the side that controlled the footy. On the scoreboard, they lost by ten.

Gold Coast SUNS ran out winners 106-96 at TIO Stadium, leading throughout: 29-21 at quarter time, 44-37 at half time and 85-63 at three-quarter time before the Bulldogs found some late shape to close it out 106-96. The competing numbers explain why the Bulldogs' clean ball use wasn't the whole story. Contested possessions went 135-121 the Suns' way, clearances 37-34, and inside 50s 62-49. All that tidy footy from the Bulldogs came without enough hard footy underneath it.

Credit to the Bulldogs, they didn't fold. They laid 68 tackles to 48 for the match, marked it 100 times to 74 and kept working the ball inside 50 with real intent, 49 entries to the Suns' 62. Hit-outs were locked level at 41 apiece, so nothing in the ruck separated them either. It just wasn't enough to overhaul the margin that had built by the last change.

What stands out is how far this result ran against the pre-match form lines. The Bulldogs came in with the stronger positional ratings across the park: midfield 1143 to 993, forwards 1139 to 1033, defence 1140 to 984, ruck 1042 to 930. Their recent form was the better of the two as well, an average winning margin of just over 20 points across their last five games against the Suns' average losing margin of 3.36 over the same stretch. On raw reputation, this was meant to be a Bulldogs day.

It wasn't, and the numbers that decided it were the ones about winning the ball rather than just moving it. Gold Coast's edge in contested possession and clearances gave them first use, and the extra pressure at the coalface, an 11-mark edge inside forward 50 despite conceding the wider marking count, kept them in front all night.

Alphr's model had this closer to right than most would have picked given the Bulldogs' superior positional ratings. It gave Gold Coast SUNS a 63% chance of winning and predicted a 7.7-point margin, not far off the actual 10. The model's combined score projection of 187 undercooked the total by 15 points, with the game finishing on 202, but the shape of the contest, an underdog winning via territory and contested footy rather than clean disposal, was exactly what the numbers pointed to before the first bounce.

All three of the model's headline picks landed: the winner, the margin in the right band and the overall scoring pattern. For a game where the loser out-disposed the winner by 46 and out-marked them by 26, that's a reminder that footy isn't always won by whoever holds the ball more. Sometimes it's won by whoever wins it back the most, and on that measure, at TIO Stadium, Gold Coast SUNS were the better side across four quarters, front to back.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 29 | 15 | 41 | 21 | 106 |
| Western Bulldogs | 21 | 16 | 26 | 33 | 96 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 353 | Disposals | **399** |
| **135** | Contested poss. | 121 |
| **37** | Clearances | 34 |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| 74 | Marks | **100** |
| **11** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 48 | Tackles | **68** |
| 41 | Hit-outs | 41 |
| **71** | Intercepts | 67 |
| 71.1% | Disposal eff. | **74.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Gold Coast SUNS by 7.7 vs the actual margin of 10 points. The game's 202 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 187. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.80 (edge +7.9%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 8 · Predicted total: 187

### H2H History (Last 5) — Western Bulldogs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Gold Coast SUNS | 68 – 77 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R2 | Western Bulldogs | 115 – 67 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2023 | R11 | Gold Coast SUNS | 84 – 77 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2022 | R10 | Western Bulldogs | 106 – 87 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2021 | R18 | Gold Coast SUNS | 79 – 90 | Western Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 86 · 52 | 62 · 72 |
| Goal Assists | 6.4/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 93/g |
| Inside 50s | 24/g | 15.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.1/g | 7.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70% | 67.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 16 | 44 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 177/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.3/g | 31.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.7% | 71.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 14 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 106/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 10.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 80.9% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.38) -1% · Key Forwards 3.31/g (lg 3.59) -8% · Forwards 4.02/g (lg 4.45) -10%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.58/g (lg 1.31) +21% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.5) +6% · Forwards 4.49/g (lg 4.45) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 24 in 7g | 30/10g (3·2·1·6·4·2·5·1·5·1) | 8/5g | 12/5g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' 86' 93' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 14 in 6g | 20/10g (3·0·0·3·4·1·2·3·3·1) | 0/5g | 4/4g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.25 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 10 in 6g | 12/10g (0·0·2·0·1·3·1·1·3·1) | 0/1g | 2/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 9 in 7g | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·3·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/10g | 2/5g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (0·0·2·1·2·2·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 20' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·4·0) | 1/1g | 8/4g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/9g | 1/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 4 in 6g | 10/10g (0·2·2·2·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 24' 75' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 11/8g | 7/7g | 60% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 4/6g | 28% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 7/9g | 3/5g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/2g | 4/6g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 6g | 9/10g (3·4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | no games | 19/10g (3·1·3·3·2·2·1·2·2·0) | 1/2g | 4/4g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 15 in 8g | 20/10g (2·3·3·0·1·1·3·3·1·3) | 10/7g | 1/1g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 12 in 8g | 12/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·3·3·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' 66' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 8 in 7g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 4/4g | 0/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 8 in 8g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 7 in 7g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·4·0) | 12/10g | 2/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·2·0) | 6/7g | 0/0g | 46% | — | 🏉 11' 26' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 36% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 5 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·3·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 63' 79' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 5 in 3g | 12/10g (0·1·2·2·0·1·1·2·0·3) | 11/12g | 0/1g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 21% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 81' 86' |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/11g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/8g | 2/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/10g | 1/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 12/10g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Poulter | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Gallagher | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 27.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 28 ✗ |
| Touk Miller | 26.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 25 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.99 | 60% | 20 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders | 21.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 10 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli | 19.5 | $1.89 | 50% | 24 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 15.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 14 ✓ |
| Wil Powell | 15.5 | $1.92 | 53% | 19 ✗ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | 26.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 35 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 25.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale | 24.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 31 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 31 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 19 ✓ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 24 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 19.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 21 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders | 19.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 19 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r9-gold-coast-suns-v-western-bulldogs
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)