AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Gold Coast SUNS by 7.7 vs the actual margin of 10 points. The game's 202 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 187. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
63%
Western Bulldogs
37%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Western Bulldogs are far from out of this at 37%. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Gold Coast SUNS counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 111-point ELO rating advantage (1589 vs 1478). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 7.7 points with a combined total of 187.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.80
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.9%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+7.9%
Total Points
Over 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W L L | 95.5 |
Western Bulldogs | W W L L L | 70.3 |
Avg Conceded
65.9
Gold Coast SUNS
91.4
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-3.4
Gold Coast SUNS
20.0
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
341.2
Gold Coast SUNS
340.9
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.7
Gold Coast SUNS
55.6
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1589 vs 1478), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.80).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 187 · Line: +7.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
+0.17
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.