AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 93% prediction for Geelong Cats — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 36.0 but the actual margin was 4 points. The game's 206 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 189. GWS GIANTS trailed 62–61 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 101–105. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 174.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
93%
GWS GIANTS
7%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Geelong Cats carry a 149-point ELO rating advantage (1684 vs 1534). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 36.0 points with a combined total of 189.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.40
Lost ✗
Edge
+22.0%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -16.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+22.0%
Total Points
Over 174.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWWL | 91.2 |
GWS GIANTS | WWLLL | 86.0 |
Avg Conceded
81.2
Geelong Cats
77.0
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
10.0
Geelong Cats
9.0
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
348.0
Geelong Cats
389.0
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 36 points
Predicted total: 189 · Line: +36.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.02
Team Effectiveness
+0.32
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.