# Geelong Cats v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 101 – 105 GWS GIANTS

_GWS GIANTS rally to dwarf Geelong Cats._

Half time: 62 – 61 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 93% / GWS GIANTS 7% · GMHBA Stadium · Sun, 11 May, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Brad Close (5'), Patrick Dangerfield (22' Tipped ⚡), Shaun Mannagh (25' ×2), Jeremy Cameron (39' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (41'), Oliver Henry (55'), Gryan Miers (61'), Oliver Dempsey (78' ×2), Tyson Stengle (94' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · GWS GIANTS: Xavier OHalloran (3' 1st), Jake Stringer (7' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Toby Greene (12' Tipped ⚡), Jesse Hogan (20' ×7 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (45' Tipped ⚡), Callan Ward (51'), Tom Green (85'), Harvey Thomas (88'), Jake Riccardi (91' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 93% | Lost |
| GWS GIANTS | 7% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 36.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 101–105 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 9 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at GMHBA Stadium had Geelong up 62-61, the kind of margin that tells you nothing except both sides were scoring at will. By the three-quarter time siren the ledger had flipped: GWS 85, Geelong 78. The Giants had found seven points somewhere in that third term and never gave the lead back, closing it out 105-101.

That's 206 points in the one match, 17 more than the model's pre-game total of 189. The over at 174.5 was never in doubt.

What wasn't expected was who'd be left standing. Alphr's model had Geelong at 1528 to GWS's 1480, a 93% win probability and a predicted margin of 36 points in the Cats' favour. Instead GWS won by four. That's about as wrong as a margin call gets, and the model's own scorecard for this one reads 1 from 3.

The form lines actually pointed the other way if you looked closely. GWS came in averaging 96.2 points a game to Geelong's 81, conceding just 71.6 against Geelong's 83.8, and carrying a positive average margin of plus-3.97 against Geelong's minus-1.1. Two wins from five recent starts to Geelong's one. The ratings had Geelong stronger everywhere except defence, marginally, but the recent scoreboard was already telling a different story.

Geelong won the territory battle comfortably. Sixty-one inside 50s to 46, 16 marks inside forward 50 to 11, and a disposal efficiency of 75.7% against 71.0%. They also dominated clearances, 40 to 30, which is usually the kind of number that wins you the midfield battle outright. Geelong's midfield rating of 1071 to GWS's 941 lines up with that.

But none of it mattered enough. GWS won the ruck contest 43 hit-outs to 30, backing up their 996-to-1036 deficit in that department on paper with a performance that flipped the actual numbers on the day. First use of the ball out of stoppages clearly went their way often enough to offset getting beaten on clearance count. GWS also shaded total disposals, 367 to 345, and contested possessions, 135 to 128, grinding out the ball in the areas that don't show up on the highlights reel.

Geelong's extra forward pressure, all those inside 50s and marks, generated plenty of looks but not enough scoreboard reward to hold a lead they'd built by three-quarter time. Whatever GWS did after the long break was enough to swing seven points their way in the third term and then defend a lead through the last, tackling at a respectable 62 to Geelong's 69 while conceding fewer intercepts, 54 to Geelong's 60.

Geelong will look at 61 inside 50s and wonder how a side with that much time in attack still lost. GWS will look at a hit-out count they weren't supposed to win and a third-quarter surge that undid a stronger-rated opponent on paper.

For Alphr's model, it's a clean miss to own. Favourite backed at 93%, beaten by four points. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one's filed firmly under the second column.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 22 | 40 | 16 | 23 | 101 |
| GWS GIANTS | 32 | 29 | 24 | 20 | 105 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 345 | Disposals | **367** |
| 128 | Contested poss. | **135** |
| **40** | Clearances | 30 |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| **98** | Marks | 83 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **69** | Tackles | 62 |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| **60** | Intercepts | 54 |
| **75.7%** | Disposal eff. | 71.0% |

**Model Report Card**

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 93% prediction for Geelong Cats, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 36.0 but the actual margin was 4 points. The game's 206 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 189. GWS GIANTS trailed 62–61 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 101–105. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 174.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.40 (edge +22.0%) — model probability 93.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge +22.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 36 · Predicted total: 189

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | GWS GIANTS | 86 – 73 | Geelong Cats |
| 2025 | R18 | GWS GIANTS | 111 – 85 | Geelong Cats |
| 2024 | R11 | Geelong Cats | 74 – 78 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R11 | Geelong Cats | 74 – 81 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2022 | R8 | GWS GIANTS | 35 – 88 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 72 · 60 | 74 · 44 |
| Goal Assists | 5.9/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.9/g | 19.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.1/g | 9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65% | 65.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 21 | 21 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.9/g | 20.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 12 | 2 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.1/g | 10.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.4% | 80.9% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.5) +6% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.31) -3% · Forwards 4.12/g (lg 4.45) -7%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.5) +4% · Key Forwards 3.73/g (lg 3.59) +4% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.45) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 18 in 8g | 24/10g (4·2·4·1·1·1·4·2·4·1) | 10/4g | 91/36g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' 52' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 16 in 8g | 17/10g (0·1·2·0·2·3·4·3·1·1) | 16/16g | 68/64g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 13 in 8g | 14/10g (0·1·2·2·1·0·2·2·2·2) | 0/1g | 13/15g | 64% | — | 🏉 78' 74' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 8 in 8g | 12/10g (4·0·3·2·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 8/4g | 54/27g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 94' 84' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 7 in 8g | 12/10g (1·4·3·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 4/3g | 32/20g | 74% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 5/5g | 39/36g | 66% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 6 in 8g | 8/10g (2·0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 14/10g | 68% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 6 in 5g | 15/10g (2·2·1·3·1·1·0·3·0·2) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 74% | — | 🏉 25' 67' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 7/19g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 4/13g | 19/88g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 11/30g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/7g | 1/5g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/27g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ted Clohesy | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/8g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 1 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·3·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 37/46g | 46% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 4/43g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 8/44g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/37g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jed Bews | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 6/56g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Duncan | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 56/90g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 18 in 5g | 37/10g (3·6·2·3·5·4·9·2·2·1) | 8/6g | 4/4g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 37' 60' 69' 93' 70' 82' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 16 in 8g | 19/10g (0·3·1·3·2·3·5·0·2·0) | 23/11g | 16/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 9 in 8g | 13/10g (3·1·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 6 in 6g | 14/10g (4·1·1·2·0·0·2·1·0·3) | 20/12g | 11/6g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 14' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 5 in 4g | 12/10g (2·2·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·3) | 7/3g | 7/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 46% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 8/14g | 3/7g | 38% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Cody Angove | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 4/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 3/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 35 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 22.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 30 ✗ |
| Zach Guthrie ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 70% | 13 ✓ |
| Mitch Duncan ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 79% | 21 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers | 19.5 | $1.85 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 17.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 19 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 17.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 19 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 15 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 30.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 37 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.80 | 69% | 30 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.86 | 71% | 25 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan | 25.5 | $1.85 | 57% | 29 ✗ |
| Connor Idun | 19.5 | $1.78 | 65% | 17 ✓ |
| Callan Ward | 19.5 | $1.96 | 48% | 18 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 18.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 21 ✗ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)