AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 93% prediction for Geelong Cats, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 36.0 but the actual margin was 4 points. The game's 206 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 189. GWS GIANTS trailed 62–61 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 101–105. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 174.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
93%
GWS GIANTS
7%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Geelong Cats carry a 47-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1480). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 36.0 points with a combined total of 189.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.40
Lost ✗
Edge
+22.0%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -16.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+22.0%
Total Points
Over 174.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W L L L L | 81.0 |
GWS GIANTS | W W L L L | 96.2 |
Avg Conceded
83.8
Geelong Cats
71.6
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
-1.1
Geelong Cats
4.0
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
361.2
Geelong Cats
352.2
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
45.7
Geelong Cats
44.7
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 36 points
Predicted total: 189 · Line: +36.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.02
Team Effectiveness
+0.32
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.