# Fremantle v Collingwood — AFL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 83 – 97 Collingwood

_Collingwood see off Fremantle._

Half time: 47 – 57 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 48% / Collingwood 52% · Optus Stadium · Thu, 08 May, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Josh Treacy (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), Isaiah Dudley (13'), Patrick Voss (19' ×2), Andrew Brayshaw (44'), Jeremy Sharp (58'), Sam Switkowski (72'), Shai Bolton (77' Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (79'), Michael Frederick (96' Tipped ⚡) · Collingwood: Will Hoskin-Elliott (17'), Jamie Elliott (20' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Mason Cox (24'), Bobby Hill (31' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ned Long (48'), Nick Daicos (51'), Jack Crisp (59' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 52% | Won |
| Fremantle | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 83–97 Collingwood in AFL Round 9 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood led 57-47 at half time, and by the time three-quarter time rolled around it was 71-56. Fourteen and 15-point buffers either side of the long break, held with barely a wobble. Full time: Collingwood 97, Fremantle 83. The scoreboard margin at every single checkpoint tells you this game never really changed hands, it just changed pace.

That's the strange part, because Fremantle spent the night making Collingwood work for it in every way except the one that counts. The Dockers finished with 375 disposals to 300, laid 43 clearances to 30, and went inside 50 an eye-watering 62 times against Collingwood's 34. On raw volume, this should have been a rout the other way.

It wasn't, because volume isn't value. Fremantle's 62 inside 50s produced just 6 marks inside forward 50. Collingwood, with less than half the entries, took 14. That's the whole game in two numbers: Fremantle kept turning up at the top of the goalsquare and going home empty-handed, while Collingwood made nearly every trip count.

Collingwood's defensive work backed it up. They laid 66 tackles to Fremantle's 48, and their disposal efficiency edged out at 72.1% to 70.2%, modest on paper but compounding over four quarters of a team that had the ball less and did more with it. Fremantle also lost the intercept count, 55 to 61, which lines up with a Collingwood side content to soak up pressure and hit back through turnover ball rather than slug it out at source.

Pre-match, Alphr's model had Collingwood as the 6.7-point favourite off ratings of 1528 to 1493, a 52% pick, with a combined total near 163. The final total landed at 180, seventeen points over, and the margin blew out to 14 rather than sitting near 7. Model went 2 from 3 on this one and Collingwood covered the 3.5. Reasonable read, undercooked on how much daylight there'd actually be.

The form lines make more sense of it than the raw ladder position might suggest. Fremantle came in with the stronger positional ratings across the board, midfield 1083 to 1010, forwards 1056 to 1001, defence 992 to 943, ruck 1035 to 1011, and their recent scoring form was similar to Collingwood's. But Fremantle had been conceding an average of 98.6 points a game over their last five against Collingwood's 83.5, and that gap between the two defensive units showed up almost exactly as advertised.

Fremantle will look at 62 inside 50s for 6 forward marks and know exactly where the game went missing. All that clearance work, all that ball movement, and precious little cash to show for it forward of centre. Collingwood didn't need to dominate the guts of the ground. They just needed to make their own footy count, and on the night, it did.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 27 | 20 | 9 | 27 | 83 |
| Collingwood | 32 | 25 | 14 | 26 | 97 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **375** | Disposals | 300 |
| **134** | Contested poss. | 122 |
| **43** | Clearances | 30 |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 34 |
| **102** | Marks | 94 |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 48 | Tackles | **66** |
| 33 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| 55 | Intercepts | **61** |
| 70.2% | Disposal eff. | **72.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 52% probability. The predicted margin of 6.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 180 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 163. The model went 2/3 on this match. Collingwood covered the 3.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.77 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 52.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 163.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 7 · Predicted total: 163

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 64 · 66 | 84 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposals | 77/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.3/g | 22/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.1/g | 11.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.3% | 68.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 26 | 12 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 151/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.3/g | 20.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.1% | 66.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 9 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 10/g | 13.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82.4% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.45) -9% · Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.32) -10% · Midfielders 2.14/g (lg 2.38) -10%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.52/g (lg 2.38) +6% · Key Forwards 3.63/g (lg 3.6) +1% · Forwards 4.04/g (lg 4.45) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 20 in 8g | 26/10g (3·3·1·4·3·3·6·1·2·0) | 5/3g | 49/33g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 13 in 8g | 15/10g (1·1·0·1·4·1·0·3·2·2) | 1/3g | 48/29g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 11 in 8g | 15/10g (3·1·2·0·1·3·3·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 55/47g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 96' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 8 in 8g | 8/8g (4·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 63% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 8 in 7g | 14/10g (2·3·1·0·0·2·2·3·1·0) | 6/6g | 24/13g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 5 in 6g | 5/6g (2·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 67% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 29/79g | 30% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 5/5g | 25/32g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 3 in 4g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·2·2·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/7g | 71% | — | 🏉 19' 82' |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/17g | 32% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/7g | 21/57g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/58g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 21/58g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 20/57g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/43g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 30/47g | 48% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Cooper Simpson | DEF | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/28g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/80g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 9% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 16 in 8g | 17/10g (0·1·2·2·1·0·3·2·5·1) | 13/10g | 2/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 28' 65' 67' 70' 87' |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 12 in 8g | 14/10g (0·2·1·2·2·0·3·2·1·1) | 4/5g | 7/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' 69' 74' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 10 in 7g | 16/10g (3·1·2·1·4·0·1·1·2·1) | 18/9g | 13/7g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 5 in 5g | 10/10g (2·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·2·0) | 0/1g | 51/47g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/4g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 4 in 8g | 8/10g (2·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 3/3g | 62% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 2/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 3 in 5g | 9/10g (2·2·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 15/11g | 7/9g | 56% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 1/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 2 in 8g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 4/7g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/13g | 4/11g | 36% | — | 🏉 59' 82' |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/8g | 9/7g | 42% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 2/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Oleg Markov | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 30.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 34 ✗ |
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 25 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.86 | 69% | 33 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 30 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.96 | 64% | 22 ✗ |
| Jeremy Sharp | 17.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 17.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 28 ✗ |
| Corey Wagner | 15.5 | $1.85 | 50% | 14 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 30.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 27.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 24.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 7 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 89% | 12 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 20.5 | $1.89 | 54% | 12 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 19.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 29 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.86 | 56% | 19 ✗ |
| Harry Perryman | 16.5 | $1.85 | 57% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)