# Essendon v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 71 – 63 Sydney Swans

_Essendon hold off a fast-finishing Sydney Swans._

Half time: 55 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 75% / Sydney Swans 25% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 10 May, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Nate Caddy (7' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Saad El-Hawli (17'), Archer Day-Wicks (36'), Archie Perkins (40'), Zach Merrett (43'), Isaac Kako (55'), Sam Durham (59'), Mason Redman (67') · Sydney Swans: Hayden McLean (19' Tipped ⚡), Brodie Grundy (46'), Braeden Campbell (69'), Corey Warner (83' Tipped ⚡), Angus Sheldrick (70'), Justin McInerney (72'), Will Hayward (81' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 75% | Won |
| Sydney Swans | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.6 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 71–63 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 9 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sydney Swans turned up with the better recent form on paper, a stronger forward line rating and a ruck edge, and for large stretches of the stat sheet they were the better side. They won the contested ball 140 to 118. They pushed forward more, 61 inside 50s to Essendon's 45. They even won the intercept count, 72 to 70. None of it mattered enough, because Essendon had already built a lead that Sydney couldn't chase down in time.

The scoreboard tells the story of when this game was actually decided, and it wasn't close to full time. Essendon led 19 to 7 at quarter time, then blew it out to 55 to 16 at the main break. By three-quarter time it was 70 to 40. Sydney's only real answer came in the last quarter, outscoring Essendon 23 to 1 from there to the final siren. A promising finish, six goals worth of scoreboard damage, but starting from 30 points back with one term to play is a hole no amount of late pressure fills.

Where it went wrong for Sydney was in the two areas that turn territory into scoreboard pressure: ball use and forward-line finishing. Essendon piled up 444 disposals to 348 and used it at 76.6% efficiency against Sydney's 70.8%. Sydney had more entries inside 50 but fewer marks there, 7 to 10, which says plenty about the quality of that forward-half ball. Winning the clearance count evenly at 32 apiece and taking more contested possessions counts for little if the disposal that follows goes to ground or out on the full.

Essendon's other edge was raw pressure. Essendon laid 60 tackles to Sydney's 46, and led marks overall 126 to 92, control that showed up everywhere except the raw hit-out and intercept numbers, both of which tilted slightly Sydney's way. Essendon's defence rating of 1011 against Sydney's 964 lines up with what actually happened once the ball got forward: Sydney had the entries, Essendon had the answers.

The form lines going in flagged this as a potential upset in the making. Sydney arrived with 2.92 wins from their last five against Essendon's 1.36, an average score near 100 points against Essendon's 80, and an average margin of just 7.79 compared to Essendon conceding by 23.5. On the numbers alone, Sydney looked the fresher, sharper side. They just didn't bring it early enough, and by the time they found some rhythm in that final term, the margin was already unreachable.

Alphr's model had Essendon by 14.6 at 75% probability, with a combined total of 170. The actual margin came in at 8, the total at 134, both comfortably inside a reasonable read given how quiet the last three quarters were on the scoreboard compared to that opening blitz. All three picks landed. Essendon 71, Sydney Swans 63, decided in the first half and defended, just barely, the rest of the way.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 19 | 36 | 15 | 1 | 71 |
| Sydney Swans | 7 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 63 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| **444** | Disposals | 348 |
| 118 | Contested poss. | **140** |
| 32 | Clearances | 32 |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| **126** | Marks | 92 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **60** | Tackles | 46 |
| **35** | Hit-outs | 32 |
| 70 | Intercepts | **72** |
| **76.6%** | Disposal eff. | 70.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 14.6 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 134 points came in 36 points lower than the predicted 170. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $2.30 (edge +31.7%) — model probability 75.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +31.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 15 · Predicted total: 170

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 42 · 66 | 58 · 69 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.6/g | 17.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.6/g | 6.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 71.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 17 | 28 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 153/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 25/g | 23.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.5% | 68.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 11 | 10 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.1/g | 13.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.2% | 77.3% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.62/g (lg 0.5) +24% · Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.45) -1% · Midfielders 2.22/g (lg 2.38) -7%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.51/g (lg 1.31) +15% · Forwards 5.06/g (lg 4.45) +14% · Key Forwards 3.89/g (lg 3.59) +8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 8 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·1·3) | 2/6g | 25/29g | 42% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 8 in 7g | 11/10g (3·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·2·2) | 0/1g | 11/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 13' 77' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 8 in 3g | 15/10g (1·0·2·2·2·0·0·6·2·0) | 15/11g | 73/34g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 76% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·4·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/17g | 28/83g | 38% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (1·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 57% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 5 in 7g | 9/10g (0·3·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 5/5g | 26/27g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.51 AI 57% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 3/21g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 3g | 14/10g (2·2·0·2·0·1·3·2·1·1) | 14/10g | 65/52g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/16g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/22g | 16/43g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 9/28g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 11/44g | 16% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/6g | 10/28g | 30% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 8/57g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/33g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Hayes | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/18g | 60/128g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/14g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 11 in 8g | 12/10g (0·1·1·1·1·4·1·2·0·1) | 13/11g | 36/25g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 81' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 10 in 6g | 12/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·3·2·1·1) | 2/3g | 10/10g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 9 in 8g | 12/10g (2·1·2·2·1·2·0·0·2·0) | 6/5g | 14/9g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 68% ✗ No goal | 🏉 83' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 8 in 8g | 11/10g (2·1·0·2·0·0·2·2·1·1) | 22/15g | 42/28g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 6/10g | 28% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 37% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 5/10g | 3/16g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Francis | KF | 4 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/19g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 42% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 4/5g | 1/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/7g | 3/14g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 1/19g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 2/30g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/20g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 10/24g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ben Paton | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 9/29g | 8% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 1/30g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 4/11g | 30% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/5g | 8/11g | 30% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 26.5 | $1.87 | 38% | 19 ✓ |
| Jye Caldwell | 23.5 | $1.78 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| Nic Martin | 22.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 38 ✗ |
| Sam Durham | 21.5 | $1.84 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 32 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts | 20.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 27 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 20.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 35 ✗ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Roberts | 23.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 99% | 11 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 25 ✗ |
| Isaac Heeney | 22.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 22 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 20.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 22 ✗ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 17 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey | 19.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 22 ✗ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.92 | 67% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)