# Richmond v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 90 – 118 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions devour Richmond._

Half time: 40 – 66 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 7% / Brisbane Lions 93% · MCG · Sat, 05 Apr, 04:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Steely Green (6' ×2 1st), Seth Campbell (27' ×2), Tim Taranto (30'), Sam Banks (54' ×2), Sam Lalor (62' ×2), Harry Armstrong (98' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Lynch (81' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Blight (92') · Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris (14' Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Will Ashcroft (21' ×2), Hugh McCluggage (37' ×2), Jaspa Fletcher (57'), Charlie Cameron (59' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jarrod Berry (69'), Levi Ashcroft (73'), Bruce Reville (83'), Eric Hipwood (87' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 93% | Won |
| Richmond | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 49.5 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 90–118 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 4 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions beat Richmond 118-90 at the MCG, and the 28-point final margin actually flatters Richmond. The Lions led by 42 at three-quarter time, 104-62, having already piled up more points in three terms than Richmond managed all day. Richmond's final quarter, 28 points to 14, was the best stretch of footy they played, but by then the game was long decided.

The quarter-by-quarter numbers tell the story of how that lead was built. Brisbane were up 10 at the first change, 19-29. By half time it was out to 26, 40-66. Three-quarter time saw the margin blow out further still, 62-104, a 42-point gap. Only in the last quarter did Richmond win the term, outscoring Brisbane 28-14, but it was a case of the contest arriving too late.

The team stats back up what the scoreboard showed. Brisbane won the clearance count 47 to 35 and pushed forward far more often, going inside 50 sixty times to Richmond's 40. Brisbane also laid more tackles, 73 to 53, and shaded the disposal count 376 to 364. Their ball use was cleaner too, hitting targets at 73.8% compared to Richmond's 69.8%. Richmond actually won the hit-outs battle at a lower rate but still trailed 42 to 51, and were beaten on contested possessions 128 to 134. One area Richmond did hold an edge was marks inside 50, 15 to 13, for what little that was worth given how rarely they got the ball forward.

Going in, the ratings had this closer than it played out.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 19 | 21 | 22 | 28 | 90 |
| Brisbane Lions | 29 | 37 | 38 | 14 | 118 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 364 | Disposals | **376** |
| 128 | Contested poss. | **134** |
| 35 | Clearances | **47** |
| 40 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| 93 | Marks | **94** |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| 53 | Tackles | **73** |
| 42 | Hit-outs | **51** |
| 52 | Intercepts | **53** |
| 69.8% | Disposal eff. | **73.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 49.5 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 208 points came in 45 points higher than the predicted 163. The model went 2/3 on this match. Brisbane Lions covered the 47.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.07 (edge -0.2%) — model probability 93.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +47.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 50 · Predicted total: 163

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 29 | 23 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 72/g | 74/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 16.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.3/g | 7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.9% | 63.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 12 | 9 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 162/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.3/g | 30/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 62.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 9 | 4 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 120/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.7/g | 13/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.3% | 75.4% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.3/g (lg 4.43) -3% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.58) -6% · Midfielders 2.16/g (lg 2.36) -8%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.8/g (lg 3.58) +34% · Rucks 0.59/g (lg 0.51) +16% · Midfielders 2.67/g (lg 2.36) +13%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 7 in 3g | 10/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·2·3) | 0/0g | 5/13g | 50% | — | 🏉 27' 48' |
| – | Jacob Bauer | KF | 3 in 3g | 11/10g (0·1·2·1·2·0·2·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 80% | — | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (2·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 67% | — | 🏉 62' 90' |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 98' 100' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/6g | 7/38g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/12g | 30/103g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/11g | 24/81g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/11g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 2 in 2g | 17/10g (3·3·1·2·2·1·3·0·1·1) | 43/17g | 141/60g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 81' |
| – | Jacob Blight | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 17% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 7/28g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/28g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 17/95g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Smith | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/81g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 16/129g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 9% | — | 🏉 54' 86' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 0 in 3g | 5/9g (0·0·3·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 33% | — | 🏉 6' 75' |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/18g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 22/38g | 38% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/12g | 22% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 6 in 3g | 12/10g (0·1·1·1·1·2·0·4·1·1) | 10/10g | 11/13g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 41' 46' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 5 in 3g | 13/10g (1·0·1·2·0·2·2·1·3·1) | 2/1g | 4/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 4 in 3g | 16/10g (2·0·0·2·1·3·4·1·3·0) | 4/9g | 9/11g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 78% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 4 in 3g | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·2·1) | 23/13g | 31/18g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1) | 15/17g | 15/21g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 7/16g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Will McLachlan | FWD | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·0·3·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 7/8g | 9/15g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 1 in 1g | 17/10g (2·2·1·1·3·2·2·2·1·1) | 28/15g | 34/25g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' 77' 69' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 4/16g | 20% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 24% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/18g | 11/28g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 4/12g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 30% | — | 🏉 21' 96' |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/13g | 12/17g | 42% | — | 🏉 37' 83' |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 0 in 2g | 11/10g (1·0·0·1·3·3·1·2·0·0) | 6/9g | 6/10g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 73% | 29 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.82 | 66% | 32 ✗ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.94 | 72% | 25 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 19.5 | $1.78 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 19 ✗ |
| Thomson Dow ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.98 | 66% | 21 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.94 | 51% | 15 ✓ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 8 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayne Zorko | 29.5 | $1.88 | 48% | 23 ✓ |
| Lachie Neale | 29.5 | $1.81 | 40% | 42 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 27.5 | $1.83 | 49% | 30 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 26.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 26 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 25.5 | $1.88 | 32% | 24 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 23.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 19 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 21.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 21 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 17.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 23 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)