AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 49.5 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 208 points came in 45 points higher than the predicted 163. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
7%
Brisbane Lions
93%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 49.5 points with a combined total of 163.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.07
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.2%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions +47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.2%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | W W L L L | 87.4 |
Brisbane Lions | W W W W L | 71.7 |
Avg Conceded
80.7
Richmond
66.8
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
9.5
Richmond
12.0
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
348.3
Richmond
343.7
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
48.1
Richmond
44.3
Brisbane Lions
ELO–Market Disagreement
Richmond hold the ELO advantage (1485 vs 1478), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.07).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 49 points
Predicted total: 163 · Line: -49.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.