# Port Adelaide v St Kilda — AFL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 72 – 89 St Kilda

_St Kilda see off Port Adelaide._

Half time: 37 – 60 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 44% / St Kilda 56% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 06 Apr, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Jason Horne-Francis (5' ×3 1st), Ollie Lord (49' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Sam Powell-Pepper (78'), Mitch Georgiades (85' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · St Kilda: Mitch Owens (6' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Sharman (14' Tipped ⚡), Jack Higgins (19' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (24'), Tobie Travaglia (28'), Mason Wood (55' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilson (57'), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (59'), Jack Sinclair (89'), Lance Collard (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 56% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 72–89 St Kilda in AFL Round 4 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-one clearances to thirty-two. St Kilda won the contested ball where it mattered most and beat Port Adelaide 89-72 at Adelaide Oval, and that clearance count is the number that explains most of it.

It shouldn't have worked out that way on paper. Port Adelaide went into this one rated stronger everywhere that counts, a midfield edge of 1070 to 964, a forward line rated 1052 to 944, defence 1058 to 961. They even won hit-outs by a landslide, 43 to 22, which usually hands a team first use of the footy. Instead St Kilda turned that ruck dominance into nothing, out-clearing Port Adelaide 41-32 and making every second phase count.

The scoreboard tells you when the job got done. St Kilda led 40-16 at quarter time and never let Port Adelaide within touching distance, up 60-37 at the main break and 74-58 at the last change before closing it out 89-72. Port Adelaide kept the margin from blowing out completely in the final term, but by then the contest had long been decided.

Port Adelaide actually won the volume battle. More disposals, 346 to 320. More inside 50s, 58 to 44. More marks, 80 to 70, including 14 marks inside forward 50 to St Kilda's 6, which should have been the platform for a much bigger scoring day. It wasn't. St Kilda were the more efficient side by the numbers that matter, hitting targets at 71.5% compared to Port Adelaide's 69.6%, and finishing with 79 intercepts to 76. All that extra forward pressure from Port Adelaide didn't turn into enough scoreboard reward, and a side that can't convert territory into points is just running laps.

St Kilda's form line coming in didn't scream favourite, a modest 2.78 average wins from their last five against Port Adelaide's 3.56, and they'd been conceding more too, 65.7 points a game against Port Adelaide's 73. But the average margin told a different story if you looked closely: St Kilda sitting at minus 3.4 for the last five, Port Adelaide at plus 7.3. Somebody had to break that trend, and on the night it was St Kilda by a distance, winning by 17.

Alphr's model had St Kilda as the pick at 56% probability, so credit where it's due there. The margin was where it fell over, tipping Port Adelaide by 3.9 when St Kilda actually won by 17, a miss of more than 20 points in the wrong direction. The total was closer to the mark, 157 predicted against 161 actual, near enough that the under 165.5 call landed cleanly. Two from three on this one, and the part that mattered most, picking the winner, came in.

Port Adelaide will look at those forward-half numbers and wonder how they lost the war of territory and still lost the game by 17. St Kilda will look at the clearance sheet and know exactly why they didn't.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 16 | 21 | 21 | 14 | 72 |
| St Kilda | 40 | 20 | 14 | 15 | 89 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **346** | Disposals | 320 |
| **134** | Contested poss. | 133 |
| 32 | Clearances | **41** |
| **58** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| **80** | Marks | 70 |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| **68** | Tackles | 57 |
| **43** | Hit-outs | 22 |
| 76 | Intercepts | **79** |
| 69.6% | Disposal eff. | **71.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 17 points. Total score prediction of 157 was close to the actual 161, within 5 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 165.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $2.68 (edge +18.9%) — model probability 56.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 4 · Predicted total: 157

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 29 | 24 · 27 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 64/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.7/g | 11.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.3/g | 7.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.4% | 62.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 5 | 12 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 193/g |
| Inside 50s | 18/g | 27/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 5.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.2% | 72.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 5 | 9 · 1 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.7/g | 15.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.9% | 77.2% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.36) -2% · Forwards 4.04/g (lg 4.43) -9% · Key Forwards 3.14/g (lg 3.59) -13%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.5/g (lg 1.33) +13% · Forwards 4.57/g (lg 4.43) +3% · Key Forwards 3.35/g (lg 3.59) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 6 in 3g | 23/10g (3·3·4·2·1·3·1·0·4·2) | 8/6g | 64/39g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 85' 84' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (1·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·1·2) | 1/10g | 31/109g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 4 in 3g | 17/10g (4·0·2·3·1·2·1·1·3·0) | 5/3g | 51/28g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 3 in 3g | 12/10g (1·2·2·2·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 26/29g | 76% | — | 🏉 5' 31' 66' |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 3 in 3g | 12/10g (2·2·2·0·0·2·1·0·3·0) | 4/8g | 60/78g | 68% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·2·0) | 4/7g | 72/71g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 7/19g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 55% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/13g | 54/127g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/11g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 23/51g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 2/8g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/54g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/19g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/33g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 10/47g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | no games | 14/10g (1·2·4·1·0·2·1·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 11/9g | 83% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' 91' 78' |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 9/61g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 29/64g | 44% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 9 in 3g | 18/10g (0·1·2·0·1·3·2·2·4·3) | 6/7g | 10/9g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 29' 94' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 7 in 3g | 15/10g (2·3·0·0·0·1·2·2·2·3) | 5/6g | 10/8g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 6 in 2g | 11/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·2·4) | 4/3g | 2/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 4 in 2g | 4/5g (0·0·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 4 in 3g | 4/3g (2·0·2) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 67% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 10/19g | 10/17g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 2 in 1g | 16/10g (1·2·2·2·3·0·2·2·0·2) | 2/2g | 4/4g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.65 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/11g | 3/14g | 22% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 44% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 16% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (0·0·1·2·3·1·1·0·0·1) | 9/7g | 4/10g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·3·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/4g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 1/16g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/8g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 23 ✓ |
| Connor Rozee | 25.5 | $1.60 | 65% | 20 ✓ |
| Zak Butters | 25.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 30 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 84% | 15 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.85 | 76% | 13 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 21.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 28 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 26 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 18 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.78 | 87% | 28 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 25 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 25 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall | 21.5 | $1.77 | 54% | 14 ✓ |
| Zak Jones | 20.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 11 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 18 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 19 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 17.5 | $1.84 | 51% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)