AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 17 points. Total score prediction of 157 was close to the actual 161, within 5 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 165.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
44%
St Kilda
56%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Port Adelaide are far from out of this at 44%. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but St Kilda counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 59-point ELO rating advantage (1536 vs 1477). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 3.9 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @2.68
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.9%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -12.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+18.9%
Total Points
Under 165.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W W W L | 108.1 |
St Kilda | W W W L L | 105.3 |
Avg Conceded
73.0
Port Adelaide
65.7
St Kilda
Avg Margin
7.3
Port Adelaide
-3.4
St Kilda
Disposals
376.2
Port Adelaide
340.3
St Kilda
Inside 50s
56.4
Port Adelaide
54.2
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
St Kilda predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: +3.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
-0.11
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.