AI Game Review
Sydney Swans defied the model's 61% prediction for North Melbourne, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.8 but the actual margin was 65 points. The game's 169 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 194. Sydney Swans led 31–53 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 65. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
61%
Sydney Swans
39%
AI Match Overview
North Melbourne hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Sydney Swans are far from out of this at 39%. Sydney Swans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but North Melbourne counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Sydney Swans carry a 93-point ELO rating advantage (1521 vs 1429). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 16.8 points with a combined total of 194.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
North Melbourne to Win @2.22
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.8%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.8%
Total Points
Over 179.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | W L L L L | 79.1 |
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 95.8 |
Avg Conceded
67.7
North Melbourne
84.2
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
-2.9
North Melbourne
-4.5
Sydney Swans
Disposals
352.6
North Melbourne
377.0
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
45.4
North Melbourne
53.8
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
North Melbourne predicted to win by 17 points
Predicted total: 194 · Line: +16.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.42
Team Effectiveness
+0.23
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
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