# North Melbourne v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 52 – 117 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans run riot over North Melbourne._

Half time: 31 – 53 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 61% / Sydney Swans 39% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 05 Apr, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Luke Parker (20' ×2), Cameron Zurhaar (41'), Nick Larkey (86' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · Sydney Swans: Will Hayward (6' ×4 1st Tipped ⚡), Oliver Florent (11'), Hayden McLean (29' Tipped ⚡), Joel Amartey (31' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Chad Warner (60' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Peter Ladhams (69'), Tom Hanily (86' ×2), Angus Sheldrick (67'), Matt Roberts (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 61% | Lost |
| Sydney Swans | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 16.8 predicted → 65 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 52–117 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 4 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne wanted the contest played their way: patient, high volume, ball in hand. They finished with 393 disposals to Sydney's 341 and hit targets at 78.4% against Sydney's 74.6%. Didn't matter much in the end. Sydney Swans were happy to trade a bit of that polish for grunt where it counts, and they won 117-52 at Marvel Stadium.

The quarter-by-quarter score tells you Sydney never really let North Melbourne into it. It was 33-12 at quarter time, 53-31 at half time, and 98-39 at three-quarter time. From there the last term was tight on its own terms, 19 points apiece, but by then the game had been shaped for three quarters already and North Melbourne had no way back.

Strip back the disposal count and the game turns on two numbers: inside 50s, 56 to 37 in Sydney's favour, and marks inside 50, 18 to 8. North Melbourne could move the ball all day through the middle of the ground, but Sydney kept turning field position into shots on goal, and clean ones at that. Sydney also won the clearance count 38-30 and edged contested possession 115-112, so even in the collision stuff, the part of the game that's supposed to be about who wants it more, they came out on top. Sydney's intercept count, 59 to 52, tells the same story from the other end: North Melbourne's ball use looked tidy in open play, but Sydney kept cutting it off before it mattered.

The pre-match numbers had the shape of this coming, even if not the size of it. Sydney's forward line carried a rating of 1061 to North Melbourne's 881, easily the biggest gap between any position group on the ground, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect: in that marks inside 50 column. Sydney's ruck edge, 988 to 936, fed a 31-24 hit-out win, which is useful first use of the footy for a midfield that was already rated ahead, 978 to 927. Add it up and Sydney had the advantage in every line on the ground, defence included, 984 to 956.

Form coming in pointed the same way. Sydney had been scoring at close to 96 points a game across their last five, conceding around 84. North Melbourne's numbers over the same stretch were 79 scored and 68 conceded, competitive company but not this company. Sydney had also been going inside 50 nearly 54 times a game on average to North Melbourne's 45, and this match followed that pattern almost exactly: 56 to 37.

None of that is an excuse for North Melbourne's night. They out-disposed Sydney by 52 and used the ball more efficiently, and it barely mattered because the disposals came in the wrong parts of the ground. That's the story of a 65-point loss: plenty of the footy, not enough of it where it counts.

For Alphr's own numbers, this one was a miss across the board. The model had North Melbourne favoured to win and picked a 16.8-point margin. Instead Sydney won by 65, and the total of 169 points came in well under the 194 the model expected. Three picks, three misses, on a night where the pre-match ratings pointed the right direction on paper but badly understated just how one-sided it would get.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 12 | 19 | 8 | 13 | 52 |
| Sydney Swans | 33 | 20 | 45 | 19 | 117 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| **393** | Disposals | 341 |
| 112 | Contested poss. | **115** |
| 30 | Clearances | **38** |
| 37 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| 112 | Marks | **120** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| 48 | Tackles | **49** |
| 24 | Hit-outs | **31** |
| 52 | Intercepts | **59** |
| **78.4%** | Disposal eff. | 74.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Sydney Swans defied the model's 61% prediction for North Melbourne, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.8 but the actual margin was 65 points. The game's 169 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 194. Sydney Swans led 31–53 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 65. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $2.22 (edge +15.8%) — model probability 60.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 17 · Predicted total: 194

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 29 · 29 | 19 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 104/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.7/g | 15/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.7/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.8% | 69.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 11 | 9 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 142/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.3/g | 24.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.2% | 68% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 3 | 4 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 149/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.3/g | 12/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.5% | 74.2% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.51) +33% · Forwards 4.32/g (lg 4.43) -2% · Midfielders 2.3/g (lg 2.36) -3%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.73/g (lg 0.51) +43% · Forwards 5.78/g (lg 4.43) +30% · Key Forwards 4.57/g (lg 3.58) +28%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 12 in 3g | 27/10g (3·2·3·5·1·1·0·5·3·4) | 15/6g | 114/53g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 86' 89' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 8 in 3g | 16/10g (0·3·1·0·3·0·1·3·3·2) | 1/3g | 37/28g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 56' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 6 in 3g | 11/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·4·1) | 10/7g | 81/56g | 72% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 4 in 3g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·2·1) | 17/12g | 58/34g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (0·1·2) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·3·1·1·1) | 7/10g | 28/72g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 16/43g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 21/48g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 1 in 3g | 12/10g (0·2·3·3·0·0·3·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 30/34g | 42% | — | 🏉 20' 88' |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 12/34g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 11/26g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/40g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 30/90g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/15g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Tucker | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 9/31g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/18g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 8/22g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 11/96g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Matt Whitlock | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $3.38 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 29% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 5 in 3g | 11/10g (0·0·2·1·0·2·1·2·2·1) | 7/4g | 12/8g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' 92' |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 5 in 3g | 13/10g (0·0·2·2·1·3·0·3·0·2) | 2/1g | 9/6g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' 43' 68' 82' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 3 in 3g | 13/10g (1·3·3·0·2·0·1·1·1·1) | 13/10g | 32/24g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 13' 48' 78' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 5/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 23% | — | 🏉 60' 92' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 2 in 1g | 10/10g (1·2·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 8/5g | 9/9g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 2 in 3g | 13/10g (0·1·1·3·3·2·1·0·2·0) | 15/12g | 42/27g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 76% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $16.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | 🏉 86' 84' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/18g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 2/29g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/13g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 2/4g | 9/9g | 36% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 19% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 9/28g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | no games | 2/5g (1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/29g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/9g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 7% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 9/23g | 24% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 8/10g | 36% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 27.5 | $1.80 | 52% | 34 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 89% | 25 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 24.5 | $1.76 | 62% | 22 ✓ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.82 | 82% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 23.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 25 ✗ |
| Luke Parker ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 74% | 27 ✗ |
| Bailey Scott | 17.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 12 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher | 17.5 | $1.78 | 37% | 22 ✗ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.82 | 70% | 19 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.83 | 72% | 20 ✓ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 100% | 11 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 10 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey | 21.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.74 | 70% | 20 ✗ |
| James Jordon ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.93 | 75% | 16 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 18.5 | $1.99 | 41% | 24 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent | 16.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)