AFL | Round 4

alphr.com.au

ENGIE STADIUM • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 69.9 was reasonable against the actual 81-point result. GWS GIANTS led 73–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 81. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

98%GWS GIANTSFavourite

GWS GIANTS

98%

West Coast Eagles

2%

AI Match Overview

GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 69.9 points with a combined total of 193.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

GWS GIANTS to Win @1.02

Winner ✓

Edge

-0.4%

Line / Spread

GWS GIANTS -65.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-0.4%

Total Points

Over 179.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
GWS GIANTS
W
W
L
L
L
79.1
West Coast Eagles
W
W
L
L
L
72.8

Avg Conceded

89.9

GWS GIANTS

66.6

West Coast Eagles

Avg Margin

5.3

GWS GIANTS

-5.1

West Coast Eagles

Disposals

375.8

GWS GIANTS

353.5

West Coast Eagles

Inside 50s

56.4

GWS GIANTS

42.3

West Coast Eagles

H2H History (Last 5)GWS GIANTS lead 3-2
May 2026GWS 71 - 88 WCE
Jul 2025GWS 111 - 52 WCE
Mar 2024GWS 108 - 43 WCE
Mar 2023GWS 81 - 100 WCE
May 2022GWS 138 - 86 WCE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GWS
1505Overall1500
WCE
ELO difference: +5 in favour of GWS GIANTS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

965Midfield973
Even
1003Forwards1030
WCE +27
979Defence941
GWS +38
1049Ruck960
GWS +88

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GWS
Stat
WCE
1.9
Wins (Last 5)
2.2
79.1pts
Avg Score
72.8pts
89.9pts
Avg Conceded
66.6pts
5.3pts
Avg Margin
-5.1pts
375.8
Disposals
353.5
56.4
Inside 50s
42.3

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
GIANTS
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Eagles
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
GIANTS
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Eagles
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
GIANTS
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
GIANTS
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

98%

GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 70 points

Predicted total: 193 · Line: +69.9

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.20

Team Effectiveness

+0.41

7
Elite
1
Hard Worker
7
Efficient
8
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

3/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props