# GWS GIANTS v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 132 – 51 West Coast Eagles

_GWS GIANTS run riot over West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 73 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 98% / West Coast Eagles 2% · ENGIE Stadium · Sun, 06 Apr, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Darcy Jones (9' 1st), Jesse Hogan (17' ×8 Tipped ⚡), Toby Greene (27' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jake Riccardi (37' Tipped ⚡), Tom Green (38' ×2), Toby Bedford (57'), Aaron Cadman (79' Tipped ⚡), Callan Ward (83') · West Coast Eagles: Archer Reid (23'), Jamie Cripps (43' ×2), Tom Gross (81'), Tyrell Dewar (92'), Jack Williams (89')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 98% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 69.9 predicted → 81 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 132–51 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 4 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS Giants led by 29 points at quarter time and never let it get interesting after that. By the finish it was 132-51, an 81-point rout at ENGIE Stadium, and the only real question was how far West Coast would keep bleeding.

The scoreboard tells you the story arrived early. Quarter time read 36-7. Half time was 73-22, so the Giants had already doubled their tally and West Coast had barely kept pace with a single quarter's work. Three-quarter time sat at 95-43, and from there the margin only stretched, GWS adding 37 more while the Eagles managed 8. There was no third-quarter fightback here, no late twist. The gap was safe from the opening term and everything after was just addition.

The forward-half numbers explain why West Coast never had a sniff of a comeback. GWS piled in 62 inside 50s to 55, not a huge disparity on its own, but the conversion of that pressure was lopsided: 28 marks inside 50 for the Giants against just 5 for the Eagles. That's a side taking clean, uncontested shots while the other side scraps for scraps. Overall marks read 113 to 60, which says plenty about who was controlling the ball in space rather than under pressure.

Feed the midfield battle into that and it gets worse for West Coast. GWS won clearances 43-34 and contested possessions 133-126, modest edges on paper, but they translated into a disposal count of 423 to 304 and an efficiency rate of 75.4% against 68.4%. West Coast simply didn't have enough of the ball, and when they did have it, they used it worse. Ruck was the biggest mismatch of the day, 47 hit-outs to 31, and that ruck dominance fed the clearance count that fed everything else downstream.

What makes it notable is that the pre-match ratings didn't actually favour GWS in the areas that decided it. West Coast rated higher for midfield, 973 to 965, and higher for forwards, 1030 to 1003. On paper it should have been closer in the middle and dangerous forward of centre. Instead GWS's big edges in ruck, 1049 to 960, and defence, 979 to 941, were the ones that showed up on the scoreboard, and the form lines back it up: GWS coming in averaging 79.1 points scored against West Coast's 72.8, while conceding more but scoring more often when it mattered.

Alphr's model had this one nailed before a ball was bounced, tipping GWS at 98% with a predicted margin of 69.9 and a combined total of 193. The actual margin landed at 81, the actual total at 183. Close enough that nobody's rewriting the model this week.

West Coast will look at the tackle count, 39 to 53, and the intercept numbers, 59 to 63, and see a side that competed without ever laying a glove. Effort wasn't absent. Efficiency was.

Wins and misses, all of it, but this one was a wins day for the model and a long afternoon for West Coast.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 36 | 37 | 22 | 37 | 132 |
| West Coast Eagles | 7 | 15 | 21 | 8 | 51 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **423** | Disposals | 304 |
| **133** | Contested poss. | 126 |
| **43** | Clearances | 34 |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| **113** | Marks | 60 |
| **28** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| **53** | Tackles | 39 |
| **47** | Hit-outs | 31 |
| **63** | Intercepts | 59 |
| **75.4%** | Disposal eff. | 68.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 69.9 was reasonable against the actual 81-point result. GWS GIANTS led 73–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 81. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.02 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 97.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -65.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 70 · Predicted total: 193

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | GWS GIANTS | 111 – 57 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2026 | R10 | West Coast Eagles | 88 – 71 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R17 | West Coast Eagles | 52 – 111 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R2 | West Coast Eagles | 43 – 108 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R2 | West Coast Eagles | 100 – 81 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 17 | 21 · 40 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.7/g | 17.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5/g | 7.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66% | 65.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 5 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 145/g | 84/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.3/g | 10.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 67.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 2 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 9/g | 11.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.8% | 68.6% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.57/g (lg 2.36) +51% · Rucks 0.76/g (lg 0.51) +49% · Key Forwards 4.88/g (lg 3.58) +36%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.51) +2% · Forwards 4.22/g (lg 4.43) -5% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.33) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 6 in 3g | 20/10g (3·3·1·2·2·0·3·1·3·2) | 19/12g | 133/79g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' 35' 78' |
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 4 in 1g | 40/10g (4·4·4·5·3·6·2·3·5·4) | 9/6g | 71/21g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 98% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 30' 64' 84' 95' 73' 75' 81' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 3 in 3g | 14/10g (0·1·3·1·2·3·1·0·2·1) | 3/1g | 10/12g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (0·3·2·0·2·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 21/11g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/6g | 59% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/16g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/2g | 8/16g | 36% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/18g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 1 in 3g | 10/10g (2·2·1·1·3·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/5g | 29/34g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 6/14g | 41/83g | 36% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 3/8g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/35g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 4/4g | 15/30g | 38% | — | 🏉 38' 70' |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 58/55g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/22g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | no games | 12/10g (0·4·1·0·2·2·1·1·1·0) | 4/5g | 25/20g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 0 in 1g | 13/10g (2·1·0·1·1·4·1·1·2·0) | 29/15g | 5/7g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 51/71g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/18g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/28g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 30/83g | 2% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 3 in 3g | 12/10g (1·0·1·1·3·1·2·0·1·2) | 19/14g | 6/6g | 74% | — | 🏉 43' 62' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 3 in 3g | 17/10g (3·2·1·2·5·0·1·2·1·0) | 6/5g | 1/1g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 2 in 3g | 14/10g (2·3·1·1·1·3·1·1·0·1) | 7/6g | 4/4g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.60 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·1·3·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/3g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 81' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green ⚡ Under | 33.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 37 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 30.5 | $1.70 | 64% | 35 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 25 ✓ |
| Josh Kelly | 26.5 | $1.78 | 65% | 29 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash | 21.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 31 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Brent Daniels ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 14 ✓ |
| Toby Greene ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.85 | 71% | 24 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.93 | 95% | 22 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 22.5 | $1.87 | 37% | 14 ✓ |
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Graham | 19.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 18.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 21 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 17.5 | $1.75 | 40% | 25 ✗ |
| Tyrell Dewar ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.85 | 84% | 14 ✓ |
| Tom Cole | 15.5 | $1.84 | 52% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)