# Gold Coast SUNS v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 91 – 90 Adelaide Crows

_Gold Coast SUNS rally to eclipse Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 39 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 51% / Adelaide Crows 49% · People First Stadium · Sat, 05 Apr, 01:20 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (2' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Ethan Read (5' Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jed Walter (55' ×2), Bailey Humphrey (62'), Touk Miller (78'), Final quarter (33m 19s)Jed Walter (66'), Lachie Weller (69'), Will Graham (82') · Adelaide Crows: Darcy Fogarty (15' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (33' ×4 Tipped ⚡), James Peatling (39'), Taylor Walker (46' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (83' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 51% | Won |
| Adelaide Crows | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 91–90 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 4 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

One point separated Gold Coast SUNS and Adelaide Crows at People First Stadium, and the scoreboard spent the whole day arguing about who was actually in front.

The Suns led 23-16 at quarter time and looked like they might run away with it. Instead Adelaide clawed back into the lead, 40-39 at half time, the sort of shift that makes you wonder if the home side had blinked. Gold Coast answered by taking the third quarter 71-65, and that six-point buffer was the closest thing to daylight either team found all afternoon. It wasn't enough to relax. Adelaide piled on 25 points in the last term to Gold Coast's 20, and the margin at the siren was one solitary point. 91-90.

The stat sheet reads like a team that should have won and didn't. Adelaide had 370 disposals to 320, won the clearance count 46 to 35, and moved the ball with 72.2% efficiency against the Suns' 66.8%. That's a comfortable structural edge in the two areas that usually decide these things, midfield use and ball control. Adelaide's pre-match midfield rating of 1016 wasn't far off Gold Coast's 1044, and on the clearance numbers alone you'd say they closed that gap and then some.

Gold Coast won the game somewhere else. Sixty inside 50s to 53 kept the ball going forward more often, and 67 intercepts to 58 says the Suns' defence, rated 1038 against Adelaide's 945 coming in, did its job when it mattered. Marks inside 50 were close, 11 to 13, so Adelaide wasn't wasteful up forward either. This was a genuine arm-wrestle decided by a handful of possessions turned into points at the right end.

Ruck was the one area with real separation on paper, Gold Coast's 1066 to Adelaide's 989, and the hit-out count backs it up, 49 to 45. Combined with a forward rating of 1027 against 961, the Suns had the personnel edge inside their attacking arc even while Adelaide dominated general possession.

Form lines suggested this gap should have been wider. Gold Coast came in averaging 104.1 points a game with an average winning margin of 26.4, against Adelaide's 78.7 and 11.4. On those numbers a one-point win looks almost like an underperformance for the Suns, and a genuine result for the Crows given they were conceding 84.2 a game on average and held Gold Coast to 91.

Alphr's model had Gold Coast as 51% favourites, with Adelaide actually tipped to win by 5.5 on ratings of 1523 to 1486. The scoreline flipped that pick but landed close on margin, a 1-point Gold Coast win against a projected 5.5-point gap either way. The total blew past forecast, 181 points scored against a predicted 163, though the under 183.5 call held up. Two out of three isn't a bad return from a match that came down to the last kick of the clock.

In the end it was a game Adelaide dominated on the stat sheet and still lost, which happens when the other side finds its scoring where it counts. Gold Coast's intercept work and inside 50 pressure were worth more than Adelaide's extra 50 disposals. Just.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 23 | 16 | 32 | 20 | 91 |
| Adelaide Crows | 16 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 90 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 320 | Disposals | **370** |
| 149 | Contested poss. | 149 |
| 35 | Clearances | **46** |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 53 |
| 67 | Marks | **70** |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| **69** | Tackles | 67 |
| **49** | Hit-outs | 45 |
| **67** | Intercepts | 58 |
| 66.8% | Disposal eff. | **72.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 181 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 163. Gold Coast SUNS trailed 39–40 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 91–90. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 183.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.75 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 50.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 6 · Predicted total: 163

### H2H History (Last 5) — Adelaide Crows lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Adelaide Crows | 128 – 49 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2025 | R19 | Adelaide Crows | 107 – 46 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R1 | Gold Coast SUNS | 60 – 54 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2023 | R21 | Adelaide Crows | 89 – 61 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2023 | R12 | Gold Coast SUNS | 112 – 87 | Adelaide Crows |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 10 in 2g | 23/10g (1·2·0·1·3·3·2·1·6·4) | 12/6g | 83/39g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 88' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 5 in 2g | 16/10g (2·1·1·1·3·0·0·3·4·1) | 2/6g | 9/16g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 72' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 5 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·3) | 3/10g | 25/82g | 32% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 3 in 2g | 6/6g (1·2·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·2) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 52% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 9/10g | 9/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 8/16g | 44% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 2/13g | 11/64g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 48% | — | 🏉 55' 90' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 13/40g | 30% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/6g | 24/43g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·2·2·2·1) | 2/3g | 11/30g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 7/8g | 64/55g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·0·3·4·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/15g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 15/33g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/47g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/45g | 10% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 9 in 3g | 22/10g (1·4·0·1·5·2·0·4·3·2) | 9/5g | 3/4g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 57' 80' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 9 in 3g | 24/10g (2·2·2·3·2·1·3·3·3·3) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 93' 75' 91' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 7 in 3g | 20/10g (1·5·1·1·3·1·1·1·4·2) | 7/7g | 3/8g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 6 in 3g | 18/10g (2·2·0·3·2·1·2·1·1·4) | 43/14g | 22/9g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 86% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 85' 72' 86' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 6/7g | 3/4g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 4 in 3g | 17/10g (3·1·2·2·2·1·2·2·2·0) | 2/2g | 26/20g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 4 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 4/8g | 3/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Lachlan Sholl | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/3g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/9g | 4/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Murphy | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/8g | 5/7g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/11g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 24 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders | 26.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 26 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.94 | 70% | 17 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 24.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 24 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 64% | 26 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 20 ✓ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 94% | 13 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 70% | 15 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 28.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 26 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 31 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $2.00 | 83% | 21 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.84 | 82% | 24 ✗ |
| Lachlan Sholl | 19.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 13 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 18.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 27 ✗ |
| Ben Keays | 16.5 | $1.90 | 38% | 17 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)