AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 181 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 163. Gold Coast SUNS trailed 39–40 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 91–90. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 183.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
51%
Adelaide Crows
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Gold Coast SUNS a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Adelaide Crows are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO — but Gold Coast SUNS counter with Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Adelaide Crows carry a 97-point ELO rating advantage (1643 vs 1546). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 5.5 points with a combined total of 163.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.75
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.4%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-6.4%
Total Points
Under 183.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWWL | 100.0 |
Adelaide Crows | WWWLL | 111.6 |
Avg Conceded
76.0
Gold Coast SUNS
90.2
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
24.0
Gold Coast SUNS
21.4
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
358.8
Gold Coast SUNS
374.2
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
50.0
Adelaide Crows
ELO–Market Disagreement
Adelaide Crows hold the ELO advantage (1643 vs 1546), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.75).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 163 · Line: -5.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.16
Team Effectiveness
-0.04
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.