# Geelong Cats v Melbourne — AFL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 85 – 46 Melbourne

_Geelong Cats toy with Melbourne._

Half time: 44 – 29 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 98% / Melbourne 2% · GMHBA Stadium · Fri, 04 Apr, 07:40 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Jeremy Cameron (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Patrick Dangerfield (28' ×3), Rhys Stanley (30'), Jack Bowes (39' ×2), Sam De Koning (51'), Shannon Neale (71' Tipped ⚡), Shaun Mannagh (73' Tipped ⚡), Tyson Stengle (80' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · Melbourne: Christian Petracca (43' Tipped ⚡), Jacob van Rooyen (48'), Harvey Langford (52'), Daniel Turner (71'), Ed Langdon (84')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 98% | Won |
| Melbourne | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 62.7 predicted → 39 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 85–46 Melbourne in AFL Round 4 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-six points to three. That's the final quarter, and it's the number that turns a comfortable Geelong Cats win into a rout. After a third term where Melbourne actually held their own, 15 to 14, the margin sat at 16 points and the game had a pulse. Then Geelong Cats slammed the door, and Melbourne managed a solitary three points in the run home.

The final score read Geelong Cats 85, Melbourne 46, a 39-point margin at GMHBA Stadium. But it wasn't a start-to-finish blowout. Geelong Cats led 23-8 at quarter time, were up 44-29 at the main break and 59-43 at the last change. The scoreboard tightened through the middle two quarters before the home side found another gear entirely in the last.

The disposal count tells you why that last-quarter surge was coming. Geelong Cats finished with 412 disposals to Melbourne's 319, and they used it far better too, an efficiency rate of 77.4% against 66.2%. Contested ball was close, 135 to 123, and clearances were dead level at 32 apiece. So Melbourne competed at the source. The problem was everything after that.

Marks is where this game was actually decided. Geelong Cats took 165 to Melbourne's 82, and inside forward 50 it was 17 marks to 5. That's not a stat that wins hardened footy people over easily, but it's the clearest signal here: Geelong Cats controlled territory and finished it clean, while Melbourne's forward entries kept turning into scrambles. Fifty inside 50s to Geelong's 49 sounds like parity, but marks inside 50 at 17-5 says Melbourne's forward line spent the day chasing crumbs.

Pre-match, the ratings had Melbourne stronger across the park, midfield 1009 to 942, forwards 1017 to 944, defence 1025 to 935, ruck 1017 to 969. On paper this was meant to be tight, or Melbourne's game to lose. Recent form backed that up too, Melbourne with 3.87 wins from their last five against Geelong's 2.13, and Melbourne averaging nearly 109 points a game coming in. None of that showed up on the day. Melbourne's usual scoring form deserted them almost entirely, and their defensive average of under 70 points conceded got blown past well before the final siren.

Alphr's model backed Geelong Cats at 98% to win, and got the shape of the result right even if the number was off. The predicted margin was 62.7, the actual was 39, and the combined total was forecast at 193 but landed at 131, some 62 points under. A lower-scoring, tighter-for-longer contest than expected, with the gap opening only late. Two from three on this one, correct winner, correct side of the 28.5-point line, wrong on the margin's size.

Melbourne will look at the hit-out count, 37 to 30 in their favour, and wonder how a ruck edge and level clearances turned into a 39-point loss. The answer's in the marking column and the final quarter. Geelong Cats owned the ball in the air and made Melbourne pay for every clean possession they couldn't match.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 23 | 21 | 15 | 26 | 85 |
| Melbourne | 8 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 46 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **412** | Disposals | 319 |
| **135** | Contested poss. | 123 |
| 32 | Clearances | 32 |
| 49 | Inside 50s | **50** |
| **165** | Marks | 82 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| **57** | Tackles | 46 |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| **65** | Intercepts | 61 |
| **77.4%** | Disposal eff. | 66.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 62.7 but the actual margin was 39 points. The game's 131 points came in 62 points lower than the predicted 193. Geelong Cats led 44–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 39. The model went 2/3 on this match. Geelong Cats covered the 28.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.22 (edge +16.2%) — model probability 98.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -28.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 63 · Predicted total: 193

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 29 · 19 | 19 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 5/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 93/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.7/g | 17.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.7/g | 5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 63.7% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 9 | 6 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 148/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.3/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.4% | 66.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 7 | 3 · 6 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.7/g | 9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.3% | 78.8% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.51) +39% · Defenders 1.37/g (lg 1.33) +3% · Midfielders 2.33/g (lg 2.36) -1%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Forwards 4.61/g (lg 4.43) +4% · Key Forwards 3.61/g (lg 3.58) +1% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 6 in 3g | 33/10g (2·6·1·3·9·4·2·4·1·1) | 22/14g | 90/35g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 5 in 3g | 12/10g (3·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·2·1) | 1/1g | 13/14g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.60 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 5 in 3g | 17/10g (3·1·0·2·2·4·0·3·2·0) | 4/3g | 52/26g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' 86' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 1/6g | 11/29g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 4 in 3g | 18/10g (2·1·1·1·4·1·4·3·0·1) | 5/3g | 32/19g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 4 in 3g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0·2) | 15/13g | 65/63g | 56% | — | 🏉 28' 36' 80' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/6g | 39/35g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 3 in 3g | 12/10g (1·1·2·1·2·2·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 13/9g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Ted Clohesy | FWD | 2 in 2g | 2/5g (0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 1 in 3g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·3·2·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 37/45g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/18g | 32% | — | 🏉 39' 78' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/26g | 12% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/43g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 13/52g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/42g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 6/12g | 24/49g | 14% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | no games | 14/10g (0·1·0·2·2·2·2·1·3·1) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/59g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 5/36g | 14% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 4 in 3g | 14/10g (1·0·5·1·2·1·0·2·1·1) | 11/13g | 5/6g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 4 in 3g | 10/10g (1·2·2·0·0·0·1·0·3·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (0·2·1·0·0·3·1·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 78% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Jack Henderson | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 1 in 3g | 10/10g (3·0·2·2·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 15/11g | 4/5g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 3/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 1 in 1g | 12/10g (1·1·3·1·0·0·0·4·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 59% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (2·2·2·1·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 6/11g | 4/2g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 3/4g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/4g | 36% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 2/6g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | no games | 19/10g (1·5·2·2·0·1·2·4·0·2) | 12/7g | 6/3g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/15g | 3/8g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 4/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 28 ✗ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.96 | 65% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart | 23.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 24 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 23 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers | 19.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 26 ✗ |
| Zach Guthrie | 19.5 | $2.00 | 56% | 30 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 17.5 | $1.89 | 48% | 17 ✓ |
| Sam De Koning | 16.5 | $1.78 | 46% | 18 ✗ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 70% | 30 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Jack Viney | 23.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Christian Salem | 22.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 18 ✓ |
| Trent Rivers | 21.5 | $1.77 | 58% | 13 ✓ |
| Steven May ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $2.00 | 64% | 27 ✗ |
| Jake Bowey | 19.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 20 ✗ |
| Max Gawn ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)