Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
98%
Melbourne
2%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form. Geelong Cats carry a 349-point ELO rating advantage (1630 vs 1281). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 62.7 points with a combined total of 193.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.2%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -28.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.2%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWLLL | 104.4 |
Melbourne | WLLLL | 75.2 |
Avg Conceded
77.2
Geelong Cats
97.6
Melbourne
Avg Margin
27.2
Geelong Cats
-22.4
Melbourne
Disposals
337.6
Geelong Cats
360.8
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 63 points
Predicted total: 193 · Line: +62.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.23
Team Effectiveness
+0.59
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.