AFL | Round 4

Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Geelong Cats counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Melbourne carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1471). Recent form favours Melbourne with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 62.7 points with a combined total of 193.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Geelong Cats to Win @1.22

Winner ✓

Edge

+16.2%

✓

Line / Spread

Geelong Cats -28.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+16.2%

✓

Total Points

Over 171.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.6%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Geelong Cats	W W L L L	91.2
Melbourne	W W W W L	108.8

Avg Conceded

81.4

Geelong Cats

69.6

Melbourne

Avg Margin

-7.7

Geelong Cats

-4.7

Melbourne

Disposals

351.3

Geelong Cats

330.1

Melbourne

Inside 50s

56.6

Geelong Cats

48.9

Melbourne

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1528 vs 1471), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.22).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

GEE

1471Overall1528

MEL

ELO difference: -57 in favour of Melbourne

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

942Midfield1009

MEL +66

944Forwards1017

MEL +74

935Defence1025

MEL +90

969Ruck1017

MEL +48

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GEE

Stat

MEL

2.1

Wins (Last 5)

3.9

91.2pts

Avg Score

108.8pts

81.4pts

Avg Conceded

69.6pts

-7.7pts

Avg Margin

-4.7pts

351.3

Disposals

330.1

56.6

Inside 50s

48.9

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Melbourne

Midfield ELO11.0%

Melbourne

Recent Win Rate10.0%

Cats

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Melbourne

Defensive ELO8.0%

Melbourne

Venue Advantage7.0%

Cats

H2H History6.0%

—

Model Confidence

98%

Geelong Cats predicted to win by 63 points

Predicted total: 193 · Line: +62.7

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.23

Team Effectiveness

+0.59

Elite

Hard Worker

Efficient

Poor Game

Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

2/3 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props