# Fremantle v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 97 – 81 Western Bulldogs

_Fremantle see off Western Bulldogs._

Half time: 71 – 39 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 84% / Western Bulldogs 16% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 06 Apr, 05:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Michael Frederick (3' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (9'), Shai Bolton (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (36' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Dudley (52'), Bailey Banfield (59'), Andrew Brayshaw (63'), Jeremy Sharp (64'), Jye Amiss (72' Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (97') · Western Bulldogs: Ryley Sanders (4' ×2), Sam Darcy (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Rhylee West (22' Tipped ⚡), James Harmes (44'), Aaron Naughton (77' Tipped ⚡), James ODonnell (87'), Lachlan McNeil (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 84% | Won |
| Western Bulldogs | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 33.0 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm · Last updated: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 97–81 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 4 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seventy-four point three per cent. That's what Fremantle did with the ball every time they had it, against 67.0% for the Western Bulldogs, and it's the number that explains how a team beaten in almost every other category on the stat sheet walked out of Optus Stadium with a 97-81 win.

Because make no mistake, the Bulldogs won the volume count. They had 375 disposals to 361, won contested ball 157 to 140, won clearances 42 to 39, and piled forward 63 times to Fremantle's 44. On paper that's a team dictating terms. On the scoreboard it meant nothing, because Fremantle kept doing more with less.

The early stages were tight enough. Fremantle led 26-24 at quarter time, hardly the sign of a game about to run away from anyone. Then came the half hour that decided it: Fremantle piled on 45 points to the Bulldogs' 15 across the second term, turning a two-point lead into a 71-39 break at half time. That's the passage where disposal efficiency stopped being a stat and started being the scoreboard.

Fremantle stretched it further before three-quarter time, up 90-66, and from there it was about not undoing the damage. The Bulldogs did find some polish in the final term, winning it 15 points to 7, but a 24-point buffer at the last change was always going to take more than a good final stanza to chase down.

The Bulldogs' issue wasn't work rate, it was conversion. Eleven marks inside 50 to Fremantle's eight tells you they were the cleaner side in the forward line on paper, yet they still finished 16 points short. Winning the hit-out count 46 to 40 and intercepts 62 to 65 (essentially even) didn't translate either, because none of it matters if the disposal that follows goes to ground.

Fremantle's defensive rating going in was the one glaring soft spot, 979 against the Bulldogs' 1153, and by raw form the Bulldogs were the higher-scoring outfit too, averaging 100.6 across their last five compared to Fremantle's 84.9. None of that showed up. Fremantle's 67 tackles to 57 suggests a side that made the Bulldogs' extra possession count for less than it should have, forcing the turnovers that efficiency then punished.

Alphr's model had Fremantle winning at 84% and had this as a shootout, tipping a combined 178 points. It landed dead on that total. The margin was the miss, tipped at 33 and landing at 16, with the Bulldogs' final-term push closing a gap that looked settled by three-quarter time. Still, the win, the head-to-head read and the total all hit. Three from three, margin aside, is a night's work most would take.

Fremantle move on with a percentage boost and a reminder that clean hands beat busy hands. The Bulldogs leave Perth with the volume stats to console themselves and a scoreline that says none of it counted for enough.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 26 | 45 | 19 | 7 | 97 |
| Western Bulldogs | 24 | 15 | 27 | 15 | 81 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Disposals | **375** |
| 140 | Contested poss. | **157** |
| 39 | Clearances | **42** |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **63** |
| 74 | Marks | **85** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **11** |
| **67** | Tackles | 57 |
| 40 | Hit-outs | **46** |
| **65** | Intercepts | 62 |
| **74.3%** | Disposal eff. | 67.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 33.0 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 178 was close to the actual 178, within 0 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.65 (edge +23.6%) — model probability 84.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 33 · Predicted total: 178

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 29 | 24 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 78/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.3/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.7/g | 7.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.6% | 67.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 11 | 11 · 6 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 5.7/g |
| Disposals | 174/g | 173/g |
| Inside 50s | 33/g | 30.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.1% | 71.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 4 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 104/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.3/g | 6.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.7% | 81.7% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.36) +5% · Rucks 0.46/g (lg 0.51) -10% · Forwards 3.94/g (lg 4.43) -11%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.47/g (lg 2.36) +5% · Key Forwards 3.53/g (lg 3.59) -2% · Forwards 4.16/g (lg 4.43) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 8 in 3g | 27/10g (2·2·5·1·3·3·3·1·4·3) | 8/4g | 44/31g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 56' 78' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 5 in 3g | 18/10g (1·4·1·4·1·1·1·0·1·4) | 8/4g | 45/27g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 4 in 3g | 4/3g (4·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 33% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 3 in 3g | 12/10g (0·0·3·1·1·3·1·2·0·1) | 9/7g | 50/45g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 29' 51' |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/5g | 27/52g | 50% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 100% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (1·1·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 8/9g | 24/31g | 60% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 2 in 2g | 9/9g (1·0·1·1·0·2·2·1·1) | 1/1g | 5/6g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/11g | 28/77g | 32% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 21/56g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·3·2·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 20/55g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 7/41g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 4/22g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 8/14g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/56g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/26g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 12/30g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/15g | 30% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/78g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 0 in 2g | 14/10g (4·2·1·0·1·2·3·1·0·0) | 11/7g | 21/11g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 89' |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 7 in 3g | 21/10g (1·1·1·1·7·2·1·1·4·2) | 4/3g | 4/2g | 85% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 40' 75' |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 5 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·3·1·1) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 4 in 3g | 15/10g (2·0·2·0·2·2·3·3·0·1) | 13/10g | 16/11g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 4 in 3g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 2/3g | 3/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | 🏉 4' 70' |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 8/10g | 4/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (0·0·4·2·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/7g | 4/9g | 34% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 8/7g | 6/8g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 2 in 3g | 10/10g (2·4·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/6g | 3/3g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 4/13g | 5/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 1 in 3g | 10/10g (2·1·1·1·2·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/8g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 5/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Gallagher | MID | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam Jones | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oskar Baker | FWD | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/9g | 43/36g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 4/10g | 42% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 38 ✗ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 29.5 | $1.80 | 54% | 29 ✓ |
| Jaeger O'Meara ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.78 | 82% | 15 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 26 ✗ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.40 | 87% | 12 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 87% | 16 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.83 | 45% | 26 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 13 ✓ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.78 | 81% | 26 ✓ |
| Tom Liberatore | 26.5 | $1.55 | 73% | 30 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 23 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 78% | 26 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.86 | 80% | 15 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.89 | 72% | 16 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 20 ✗ |
| James Harmes | 16.5 | $1.82 | 63% | 24 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)