AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 64% probability. The predicted margin of 25.8 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. The game's 109 points came in 41 points lower than the predicted 150. Collingwood trailed 25–29 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 63–46. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
64%
Carlton
36%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Carlton are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Collingwood carry a 231-point ELO rating advantage (1641 vs 1410). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 25.8 points with a combined total of 150.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.7%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.7%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WWWWL | 89.2 |
Carlton | LLLLL | 69.8 |
Avg Conceded
70.8
Collingwood
84.0
Carlton
Avg Margin
18.4
Collingwood
-14.2
Carlton
Disposals
367.0
Collingwood
358.0
Carlton
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Collingwood predicted to win by 26 points
Predicted total: 150 · Line: +25.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.28
Team Effectiveness
-0.19
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.