AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 64% probability. The predicted margin of 25.8 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. The game's 109 points came in 41 points lower than the predicted 150. Collingwood trailed 25–29 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 63–46. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
64%
Carlton
36%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Carlton are far from out of this at 36%. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Collingwood counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 54-point ELO rating advantage (1579 vs 1525). Recent form favours Carlton with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 25.8 points with a combined total of 150.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.7%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.7%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | W W L L L | 106.4 |
Carlton | W W W L L | 100.5 |
Avg Conceded
71.8
Collingwood
75.5
Carlton
Avg Margin
4.4
Collingwood
27.9
Carlton
Disposals
375.4
Collingwood
360.7
Carlton
Inside 50s
52.2
Collingwood
55.2
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1579 vs 1525), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.42).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Collingwood predicted to win by 26 points
Predicted total: 150 · Line: +25.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.28
Team Effectiveness
-0.19
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.