# Collingwood v Carlton — AFL Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 63 – 46 Carlton

_Collingwood surge back to topple Carlton._

Half time: 25 – 29 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 64% / Carlton 36% · MCG · Thu, 03 Apr, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Brayden Maynard (16'), Harry Perryman (22'), Jordan de Goey (29' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lachie Schultz (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tim Membrey (76' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (30m 31s)Ned Long (65') · Carlton: Oliver Hollands (10' ×2 1st), Patrick Cripps (15'), Charlie Curnow (31' Tipped ⚡), George Hewett (58' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 64% | Won |
| Carlton | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 25.8 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 63–46 Carlton in AFL Round 4 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton spent the day trying to out-run Collingwood, and for a while it worked. More disposals, 374 to 360. More marks, 93 to 68. More contested ball, 147 to 142. All the ingredients of a side content to work it wide and back its skill over metres gained. Collingwood took a different approach at the MCG: win it at the source, force it forward, make Carlton defend under pressure rather than dictate terms. By full time it was Collingwood by 17, 63 to 46.

The scoreboard didn't move the way that final margin suggests. Carlton led at quarter time, 23-20, and were still in front at the main break, 29-25. Then came the third quarter, and it wasn't close. Collingwood outscored Carlton 30 to 1 in that term alone, turning a four-point deficit into a 25-point lead, 55-30 at the three-quarter time siren. Carlton found some of it back in the last, 16 to 8, but that kind of scoreline needed a lot more than one quarter to fix.

The clearance count explains where the game turned. Collingwood won 47 to Carlton's 38, and turned that advantage into raw territory: 57 inside 50s to 44. Carlton's extra disposals never translated into scoreboard pressure, because once the ball got forward, Collingwood controlled it. Marks inside 50 ran 10 to 4 in Collingwood's favour, the clearest sign of the gap between the two sides once the contest reached attacking territory. Carlton had the ball more often across the ground; Collingwood had it when it mattered.

Efficiency told a similar story. Collingwood hit targets at 67.2%, well clear of Carlton's 60.0%. That gap matters more than the raw disposal count Carlton won. A side that uses the ball better with fewer touches will generally beat a side that has more of it but wastes chances, and that's roughly what played out across four quarters.

Pressure was the other separator. Collingwood laid 85 tackles to Carlton's 69, and won the hit-out count too, 43 to 38, despite going in as the weaker rated ruck combination. Intercepts went Collingwood's way as well, 73 to 62, which lines up with a side reading the ball in flight and cutting off Carlton's outlet options before they could turn possession into forward entries.

None of this was expected to be one-sided. Alphr's model had Collingwood as the weaker rated side across every line, midfield, forwards, defence and ruck, and still gave them the win at 64% probability, with a projected margin of 25.8 points. The final margin of 17 was close enough to call that a fair result, even if the model's combined score projection of 150 points ran well ahead of the actual 109 scored on the night. Low scoring, tight for three quarters, then Collingwood took over.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 20 | 5 | 30 | 8 | 63 |
| Carlton | 23 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 46 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Disposals | **374** |
| 142 | Contested poss. | **147** |
| **47** | Clearances | 38 |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| 68 | Marks | **93** |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| **85** | Tackles | 69 |
| **43** | Hit-outs | 38 |
| **73** | Intercepts | 62 |
| **67.2%** | Disposal eff. | 60.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 64% probability. The predicted margin of 25.8 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. The game's 109 points came in 41 points lower than the predicted 150. Collingwood trailed 25–29 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 63–46. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.42 (edge -6.7%) — model probability 63.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 26 · Predicted total: 150

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 19 | 16 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 6/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 73/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.7/g | 14.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.3/g | 5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.9% | 65.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 9 | 3 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 162/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.3/g | 26.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66% | 61.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 9 · 6 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.7/g | 17/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.9% | 70.4% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.57/g (lg 0.51) +12% · Forwards 4.49/g (lg 4.44) +1% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.33) -6%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.29/g (lg 1.33) -3% · Key Forwards 3.33/g (lg 3.58) -7% · Forwards 4.12/g (lg 4.44) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 5 in 3g | 14/10g (0·2·2·1·2·0·2·1·2·2) | 4/6g | 47/39g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 5 in 2g | 21/10g (3·2·3·3·0·2·2·1·2·3) | 12/10g | 133/80g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 5 in 3g | 12/10g (2·1·1·1·1·0·1·2·2·1) | 24/18g | 191/121g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 5 in 3g | 19/10g (0·5·2·1·3·1·2·1·4·0) | 30/12g | 42/18g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 4 in 3g | 16/10g (2·2·1·3·1·1·2·0·3·1) | 15/11g | 34/30g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 3 in 3g | 9/10g (1·0·2·1·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 6/8g | 27/22g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 85' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 3g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 14/21g | 96/170g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/16g | 12/128g | 10% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 38/48g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 4/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·2·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 23/46g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 10/10g | 25/46g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 35/57g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 39/102g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 1/17g | 4% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/63g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 48/141g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 56/155g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (1·0·0·2·2·0·1·1·2·0) | 13/12g | 115/107g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 67' |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 30/74g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/22g | 79/172g | 26% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 7 in 3g | 12/10g (0·0·0·0·4·1·0·1·1·5) | 0/2g | 2/18g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 3 in 2g | 22/10g (5·2·1·3·4·3·0·1·0·3) | 25/10g | 101/49g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (0·1·3·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 2/11g | 9/29g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·0·4·1·1·1·0) | 2/7g | 34/48g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (3·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 5/5g | 10/17g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/5g | 0/20g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 11/29g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 14/34g | 44% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 11/40g | 28% | — | 🏉 58' 89' |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 15/42g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/57g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | no games | 2/2g (1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 7/67g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (3·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 14/29g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/8g | 27/37g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/24g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/16g | 18% | — | 🏉 10' 76' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 38/80g | 40% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 9/62g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 14/27g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Will White | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 29.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 27 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 25.5 | $1.89 | 57% | 31 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 22.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 24 ✗ |
| Dan Houston | 22.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 23 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 20.5 | $1.81 | 48% | 29 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 75% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | $1.95 | 53% | 22 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.94 | 62% | 22 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.94 | 63% | 16 ✓ |
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Walsh | 27.5 | $1.85 | 63% | 31 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 79% | 23 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.85 | 72% | 19 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 20.5 | $1.78 | 62% | 24 ✗ |
| Blake Acres | 19.5 | $1.94 | 48% | 30 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 16.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)