AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 98% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Western Bulldogs by 91.3 vs the actual margin of 94 points. The game's 158 points came in 45 points lower than the predicted 203. Western Bulldogs led 73–17 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 94. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
98%
West Coast Eagles
2%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 119-point ELO rating advantage (1597 vs 1478). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 91.3 points with a combined total of 203.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.01
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.9%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -76.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.9%
Total Points
Over 189.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W L L L L | 70.1 |
West Coast Eagles | W W W W L | 90.4 |
Avg Conceded
75.3
Western Bulldogs
93.1
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
29.4
Western Bulldogs
-9.4
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
370.1
Western Bulldogs
367.4
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
45.8
Western Bulldogs
43.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 91 points
Predicted total: 203 · Line: +91.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.11
Team Effectiveness
+0.32
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.