# Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 126 – 32 West Coast Eagles

_Western Bulldogs put West Coast Eagles to the sword._

Half time: 73 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 98% / West Coast Eagles 2% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 17 Aug, 04:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Sam Darcy (8' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Sam Davidson (13' ×3), Aaron Naughton (16' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Joel Freijah (33'), Jordan Croft (37' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ed Richards (55' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Marcus Bontempelli (57' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Rhylee West (74' ×3 Tipped ⚡) · West Coast Eagles: Matthew Owies (40'), Noah Long (65'), Jamie Cripps (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 98% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 91.3 predicted → 94 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 126–32 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 23 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two very different ideas about how to play footy showed up at Marvel Stadium, and only one of them survived contact. Western Bulldogs wanted the ball in hand and clean; West Coast wanted it moving forward at any cost. The final margin, 126 to 32, tells you which philosophy won.

The disposal numbers say it all before you even get to the scoreboard. Western Bulldogs finished with 379 disposals to 341 and an efficiency rate of 78.0 per cent, well clear of the Eagles' 65.8 per cent. West Coast had the ball plenty too, but too much of it went nowhere useful. Western Bulldogs also won the territory battle, going inside 50 fifty-eight times to forty-two, and were far cleaner once they got there, with nineteen marks inside 50 to West Coast's eleven.

The Eagles did have one genuine platform. They won hit-outs 50 to 39, a reversal of the pre-match ruck rating that had Western Bulldogs the stronger unit at 1102 to 1012. It didn't matter. Winning the tap is only useful if what happens next works, and West Coast's clearance differential barely existed, 38 to 40, so the ruck dominance evaporated on the way through midfield.

West Coast's other calling card was effort without the ball. Seventy-three tackles to fifty-five is a big number, the kind that usually signals a team dragging a contest back into their own hands. Instead it read as chasing shadows, evidence of a side spending the day working hard in reverse.

The scoreline built steadily rather than arriving in one hit. Western Bulldogs led 29 to 1 at quarter time, extended it to 73 to 17 by half time, and were out to 97 to 26 at the last change before finishing at 126 to 32. Every quarter added more, and West Coast never found a passage to slow it down.

Pre-match, the ratings had this coming. Western Bulldogs held the edge everywhere that counts, midfield 1131 to 1027, forwards 1073 to 1028, and defence by a wide 1113 to 936. Add in the form line, Western Bulldogs coming in at plus-29.4 average margin against West Coast's minus-9.4, and the shape of this result was written well before the first bounce.

Alphr's model had Western Bulldogs at 98 per cent to win and picked the margin at 91.3 points, close enough to the actual 94 to call it a sharp read. The total was the miss: 203 points projected, 158 delivered, 45 points light. West Coast's inability to convert territory into scoreboard pressure, not any lack of Western Bulldogs firepower, is what kept the total down. Two from three isn't a bad night's work when the header number, the winner, was never really in doubt.

For West Coast, the tackle count and the hit-out win are something to build from, proof the effort was there even when the polish wasn't. For Western Bulldogs, it was a case of doing the simple things at a higher rate, cleaner hands, better targets, more time in front of goal, and letting the ambition of the opposition run itself into the ground.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 29 | 44 | 24 | 29 | 126 |
| West Coast Eagles | 1 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **379** | Disposals | 341 |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 119 |
| **40** | Clearances | 38 |
| **58** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| **98** | Marks | 79 |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 55 | Tackles | **73** |
| 39 | Hit-outs | **50** |
| **62** | Intercepts | 59 |
| **78.0%** | Disposal eff. | 65.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 98% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Western Bulldogs by 91.3 vs the actual margin of 94 points. The game's 158 points came in 45 points lower than the predicted 203. Western Bulldogs led 73–17 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 94. The model went 2/3 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 76.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.01 (edge -0.9%) — model probability 98.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -76.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 189.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 91 · Predicted total: 203

### H2H History (Last 5) — Western Bulldogs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Western Bulldogs | 86 – 70 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2024 | R3 | Western Bulldogs | 106 – 30 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2023 | R23 | Western Bulldogs | 85 – 92 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2022 | R11 | West Coast Eagles | 60 – 161 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2021 | R15 | West Coast Eagles | 43 – 98 | Western Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 187 · 164 | 141 · 216 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 92/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 15/g | 20.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.4/g | 7.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 67.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 114 · 62 | 44 · 83 |
| Goal Assists | 6.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 175/g | 92/g |
| Inside 50s | 30.3/g | 13.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.6% | 70.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 18 | 13 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 11/g | 12.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 75.2% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.79/g (lg 0.51) +55% · Midfielders 3.54/g (lg 2.39) +48% · Key Forwards 4.58/g (lg 3.64) +26%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.54/g (lg 2.39) +6% · Key Forwards 3.47/g (lg 3.64) -5% · Rucks 0.44/g (lg 0.51) -14%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 55 in 21g | 36/10g (0·3·1·3·5·5·2·7·5·5) | 14/9g | 134/76g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.00 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $5.95 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' 35' 79' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 45 in 15g | 31/10g (0·3·5·3·4·2·1·6·5·2) | 1/1g | 46/22g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.00 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 11' 81' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 34 in 21g | 15/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·4·3·1·1) | 4/3g | 43/40g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 67' 81' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 21 in 21g | 7/10g (1·2·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 31/46g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 20 in 21g | 10/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·0·2·1·2) | 0/6g | 29/68g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' 91' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 17 in 19g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 2/3g | 20/38g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 17 in 16g | 9/10g (0·0·3·1·2·0·1·2·0·0) | 16/14g | 146/132g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' 74' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 14 in 21g | 7/10g (0·1·0·4·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/18g | 34% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 13 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/19g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 13 in 21g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·2·0·1·0·2·0) | 5/8g | 46/71g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 10 in 17g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 56% | — | 🏉 13' 46' 72' |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 44/121g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 21/81g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 5 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 3/29g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 50/88g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/26g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/11g | 35/44g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 38/100g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Riley Garcia | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 8/21g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jedd Busslinger | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Croft | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $16.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' 48' |
| – | Oskar Baker | FWD | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/18g | 16% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 22 in 19g | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·2·2·1) | 26/16g | 51/39g | 76% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 22 in 18g | 11/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·3) | 9/5g | 22/14g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 14 in 18g | 8/10g (0·1·1·2·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 8/10g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 10 in 14g | 10/10g (2·2·0·3·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/11g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 10 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 9 in 7g | 9/7g (1·2·1·1·0·1·3) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/4g | 28/21g | 56% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 5 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·1) | 3/6g | 11/18g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 5 in 18g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 3/9g | 6/15g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Chesser | MID | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 2/9g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 6/16g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/6g | 32% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 7/10g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/17g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Newton | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.95 | 69% | 31 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.91 | 77% | 25 ✓ |
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 34 ✗ |
| Tom Liberatore | 26.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 23.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 22 ✓ |
| Tim English ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.93 | 69% | 20 ✓ |
| Joel Freijah | 18.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 18.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 14 ✓ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 84% | 25 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 85% | 17 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 26 ✗ |
| Liam Baker | 20.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Graham ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 20 ✗ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.83 | 68% | 16 ✓ |
| Tom Cole ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)