AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 21.2 but the actual margin was 43 points. Geelong Cats led 46–55 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
27%
Geelong Cats
73%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Geelong Cats carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1495). The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 21.2 points with a combined total of 167.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.36
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats +18.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 72.0 |
Geelong Cats | W W L L L | 101.2 |
Avg Conceded
91.2
Sydney Swans
96.1
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
15.9
Sydney Swans
-8.4
Geelong Cats
Disposals
349.6
Sydney Swans
344.3
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
55.3
Sydney Swans
51.1
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 21 points
Predicted total: 167 · Line: -21.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.24
Team Effectiveness
-0.14
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.