# Sydney Swans v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 68 – 111 Geelong Cats

_Geelong Cats pounce on Sydney Swans._

Half time: 46 – 55 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 27% / Geelong Cats 73% · SCG · Sun, 17 Aug, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Hayden McLean (1' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Isaac Heeney (5' Tipped ⚡), Braeden Campbell (8'), Peter Ladhams (30' ×2), Tom McCartin (39'), Tom Papley (72' ×2) · Geelong Cats: Shannon Neale (20' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jack Martin (23' ×2), Gryan Miers (25' ×2), Tyson Stengle (61' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shaun Mannagh (74' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Dangerfield (80'), Oliver Dempsey (84')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 73% | Won |
| Sydney Swans | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 21.2 predicted → 43 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 68–111 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 23 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats beat Sydney Swans 111-68 at the SCG, a 43-point margin that puts it firmly in the rout category. Look at the clearance count, though, and the story gets murkier: Sydney won that battle 43 to 33. A side can dominate the source of the ball and still get buried by 43 points, and that's exactly what happened here.

The scoreboard tells you where it turned. Scores were locked at 27-27 at quarter time, genuinely even. By half time Geelong led 55-46, a shift of nine points that doesn't sound like much. Then Geelong took a 26-point buffer into three-quarter time at 80-54, and from there the margin blew out further, the final quarter alone worth 31 points to Sydney's 14. The scoreline says rout, but for a full quarter this was a contest.

So how does a team lose clearances by ten and still win by 43? Efficiency and territory. Geelong's disposal efficiency sat at 72.7% to Sydney's 69.0%, and while Sydney actually shaded total disposals 349 to 344 and edged contested possessions 125 to 122, none of that mattered once the ball hit the forward line. Geelong went inside 50 55 times to Sydney's 47, and once there they made it count, hauling in 17 marks inside 50 to Sydney's 11. Sydney could win the ball in the middle all day, but Geelong kept it once it arrived.

The marking gap overall was the loudest number on the sheet: 114 to 79. That's a side controlling the air and dictating terms, and it lines up with the 69 intercepts Geelong racked up against Sydney's 51. Geelong were reading the ball in flight and turning it over on their terms, which is a hard way for any team to build scoreboard pressure of its own. Hit-outs were close, 47 to 43 in Geelong's favour, and tackle numbers were nearly identical too, 63 to 62. This wasn't a game Geelong won by working harder. It won it by using the ball smarter in the areas that count.

Some of this was foreshadowed. Geelong went in rated stronger in the midfield, 1031 to 1004, and in the ruck, 999 to 977, and those edges showed up in the way the ball was used more than in raw clearance numbers. Sydney's defence was rated the better unit pre-match, 1038 to 1016, but conceding 111 points and 17 forward 50 marks says that edge didn't hold up on the day. Geelong's recent scoring form, an average of 101 points a game compared to Sydney's 72, looks like it just kept rolling into this one.

The pre-match numbers back that up too. Alphr's model had Geelong at 73% to win, and got the winner right. The margin was another matter: 21.2 points predicted, 43 actual, and a combined total of 167 forecast against 179 delivered. Geelong also covered the 18.5-point line comfortably. Overall the model went 2 from 3 on this match, right on the winner and the head-to-head lean, short on just how far Geelong would actually run away with it. On the numbers, Sydney's midfield effort deserved a better return than the one it got.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 27 | 19 | 8 | 14 | 68 |
| Geelong Cats | 27 | 28 | 25 | 31 | 111 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **349** | Disposals | 344 |
| **125** | Contested poss. | 122 |
| **43** | Clearances | 33 |
| 47 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| 79 | Marks | **114** |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| 62 | Tackles | **63** |
| 43 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| 51 | Intercepts | **69** |
| 69.0% | Disposal eff. | **72.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 21.2 but the actual margin was 43 points. Geelong Cats led 46–55 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. Geelong Cats covered the 18.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.36 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 73.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 21 · Predicted total: 167

### H2H History (Last 5) — Geelong Cats lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Geelong Cats | 107 – 80 | Sydney Swans |
| 2024 | R13 | Sydney Swans | 112 – 82 | Geelong Cats |
| 2023 | R16 | Sydney Swans | 54 – 54 | Geelong Cats |
| 2023 | R6 | Geelong Cats | 130 – 37 | Sydney Swans |
| 2022 | SF | Geelong Cats | 133 – 52 | Sydney Swans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 122 · 161 | 242 · 157 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 6.7/g |
| Disposals | 98/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.8/g | 22.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.4/g | 11.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 68% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 96 · 65 | 74 · 50 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 146/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.7/g | 22.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.2/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 70.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 27 | 10 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 12/g | 11.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.84/g (lg 3.64) +5% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0% · Forwards 4.23/g (lg 4.42) -4%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Midfielders 2.37/g (lg 2.39) -1% · Forwards 4.28/g (lg 4.42) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 35 in 21g | 22/10g (1·1·2·5·0·1·5·1·1·5) | 16/13g | 133/100g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 5' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 27 in 19g | 14/10g (1·1·1·1·3·0·1·3·0·3) | 15/11g | 93/79g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 21 in 17g | 10/10g (1·2·1·1·0·3·1·1·0·0) | 6/7g | 44/38g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 1' 63' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 19 in 21g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 5/5g | 46/52g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 15 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 2/5g | 14/43g | 42% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 10 in 21g | 7/10g (0·3·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 12/24g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 8 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 23/64g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 7 in 7g | 7/8g (0·1·0·2·2·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 63% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 7 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·3·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 21/118g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 7 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/8g | 23/59g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/13g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/13g | 36% | — | 🏉 30' 78' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 22/13g | 142/86g | 74% | — | 🏉 72' 94' |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 32/44g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 11/80g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 20/83g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 17/64g | 4% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 6/117g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 17/89g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Dattoli | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/49g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 16/34g | 20% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 79 in 21g | 46/10g (5·0·6·4·4·1·5·11·6·4) | 45/21g | 22/10g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 98% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $5.75 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 37 in 21g | 24/10g (1·0·4·1·3·5·0·4·3·3) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 28' 41' 45' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 26 in 21g | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 72% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 26 in 19g | 16/10g (1·2·2·4·1·0·2·2·2·0) | 9/5g | 4/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' 68' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 24 in 18g | 8/10g (1·0·0·2·0·2·0·2·0·1) | 18/17g | 3/7g | 58% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 23 in 18g | 12/10g (1·0·3·0·1·1·3·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 74' 84' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 17 in 21g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·1) | 11/6g | 7/4g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 13 in 16g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·2·1·1·1·2·0) | 2/6g | 2/4g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 11 in 19g | 9/10g (2·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 4/8g | 3/5g | 60% | — | 🏉 25' 85' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 11 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 5/19g | 1/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·4) | 3/7g | 1/5g | 60% | — | 🏉 23' 57' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 2/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 77% | 23 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 23.5 | $1.78 | 60% | 15 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 71% | 23 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 23.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 23 ✓ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 71% | 21 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 19.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 21 ✗ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 30 ✓ |
| Max Holmes | 27.5 | $1.83 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.82 | 73% | 18 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 19 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart | 19.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 25 ✗ |
| Mark Blicavs ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.82 | 78% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)