AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 21.2 but the actual margin was 43 points. Geelong Cats led 46–55 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
27%
Geelong Cats
73%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Geelong Cats carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1495). The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 21.2 points with a combined total of 167.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.36
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats +18.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 72.0 |
Geelong Cats | W W L L L | 101.2 |
Avg Conceded
91.2
Sydney Swans
96.1
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
15.9
Sydney Swans
-8.4
Geelong Cats
Disposals
349.6
Sydney Swans
344.3
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
55.3
Sydney Swans
51.1
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 21 points
Predicted total: 167 · Line: -21.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.24
Team Effectiveness
-0.14
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.