Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
80%
Melbourne
20%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Hawthorn carry a 35-point ELO rating advantage (1554 vs 1519). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 12.0 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.0%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -19.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.0%
Total Points
Under 164.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W W W L | 73.1 |
Melbourne | W W W L L | 75.6 |
Avg Conceded
75.4
Hawthorn
98.0
Melbourne
Avg Margin
27.3
Hawthorn
13.7
Melbourne
Disposals
378.6
Hawthorn
349.1
Melbourne
Inside 50s
45.1
Hawthorn
43.4
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: +12.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.05
Team Effectiveness
-0.07
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.