# Hawthorn v Melbourne — AFL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 92 – 56 Melbourne

_Hawthorn see off Melbourne._

Half time: 49 – 15 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 80% / Melbourne 20% · MCG · Sat, 16 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (4' ×7 1st Tipped 🎯), Nick Watson (25' Tipped ⚡), Calsher Dear (28' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (36'), Luke Breust (74'), Connor Macdonald (83') · Melbourne: Harry Petty (9' ×2), Clayton Oliver (48'), Jacob van Rooyen (61' ×2), Harvey Langford (88'), Kysaiah Pickett (92' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 80% | Won |
| Melbourne | 20% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.0 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 92–56 Melbourne in AFL Round 23 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two teams turned up with different jobs in mind. Melbourne wanted the footy, wanted it often, and wanted to win the fight for it. Hawthorn wanted it in the right postcode. By full time, Hawthorn had turned that argument into a 92-56 demolition at the MCG.

The clearance count tells you who worked harder for it. Melbourne won that battle 40 to 35, backed it up with 43 hit-outs to Hawthorn's 31, and laid 68 tackles to Hawthorn's 55. They also pushed forward more, going inside 50 fifty-six times against Hawthorn's 49. On raw effort, Melbourne were competitive, arguably the busier side across the ground.

None of it mattered where it counted. Hawthorn piled up 406 disposals to 376 and, more tellingly, took 102 marks to Melbourne's 68. Inside their forward 50, Hawthorn marked it 20 times to Melbourne's 8. That's the whole story in two numbers: Melbourne kept feeding the ball forward, Hawthorn kept catching it clean and doing something with it. Interestingly, Melbourne were marginally the more efficient side with ball in hand, 69.1 per cent to Hawthorn's 68.4 per cent, but efficiency with the footy counts for little when the other side is winning the aerial contest by 34 marks.

The scoreboard had this one decided early and just kept adding to it. Hawthorn led 33-6 at quarter time, 49-15 at the main break, and 70-27 at the last change, a 43-point buffer with a quarter still to play. Melbourne's only real answer came in the final term, outscoring Hawthorn 22-29 in that period alone. Too little, far too late, and it barely dented a margin that was already out of reach by three-quarter time.

The pre-match ratings had Melbourne with the stronger midfield, 1051 to 1033, and a slight edge in the forward line, 1028 to 1018. That much rang true, given the clearance and inside-50 numbers. But Hawthorn held a big edge in defence, 1100 to 1001, and it showed on the day: 83 intercepts to 75, and a marking game inside 50 that shut down whatever territory Melbourne could win. Hawthorn also rated higher in the ruck, 1041 to 989, even though Melbourne won the hit-out count comfortably. Winning the taps clearly didn't translate into winning the footy.

Alphr's model had this one largely right before a ball was bounced.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 33 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 92 |
| Melbourne | 6 | 9 | 12 | 29 | 56 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **406** | Disposals | 376 |
| 143 | Contested poss. | **144** |
| 35 | Clearances | **40** |
| 49 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| **102** | Marks | 68 |
| **20** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 55 | Tackles | **68** |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| **83** | Intercepts | 75 |
| 68.4% | Disposal eff. | **69.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 80% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.0 but the actual margin was 36 points. Total score prediction of 153 was close to the actual 148, within 5 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.33 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 80.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 12 · Predicted total: 153

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 199 · 150 | 143 · 178 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 98/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.1/g | 19.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67% | 69.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 45 · 53 | 88 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.3/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 68.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 18 | 21 · 41 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.4/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.1% | 81.6% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Defenders 1.52/g (lg 1.25) +22% · Rucks 0.62/g (lg 0.51) +22% · Midfielders 2.3/g (lg 2.39) -4%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.35/g (lg 1.25) +8% · Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.39) -2% · Key Forwards 3.49/g (lg 3.63) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 53 in 18g | 30/10g (2·1·2·7·3·1·3·3·4·4) | 25/13g | 224/117g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 7' 44' 63' 84' 63' 71' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 36 in 19g | 19/10g (3·0·0·4·1·5·2·0·1·3) | 6/6g | 37/30g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 30 in 20g | 13/10g (0·1·0·3·2·1·1·2·1·2) | 3/2g | 30/17g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 23 in 20g | 13/10g (3·2·0·2·1·1·1·1·2·0) | 2/5g | 61/46g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 18 in 21g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·1·1) | 5/8g | 48/50g | 68% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 16 in 19g | 8/10g (0·1·2·2·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/4g | 26/36g | 64% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 12/75g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 9 in 21g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 12/39g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 9 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 2/3g | 9/23g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 8 in 6g | 17/10g (3·2·3·1·0·3·2·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 15/8g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 31/77g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 7/24g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 7/47g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 22/57g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 4 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 14/64g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 4 in 4g | 12/10g (2·1·1·1·1·2·0·2·1·1) | 5/5g | 55/29g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/27g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Luke Breust | FWD | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 34/17g | 249/133g | 72% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 10/33g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/25g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/45g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/22g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 37 in 18g | 19/10g (0·3·3·3·2·1·5·1·0·1) | 12/7g | 100/61g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 92' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 33 in 20g | 23/10g (1·3·2·2·1·3·2·3·4·2) | 14/9g | 136/82g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 31 in 17g | 22/10g (1·1·0·5·4·5·1·2·1·2) | 10/11g | 96/88g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 17 in 21g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 9/14g | 96/105g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 17 in 17g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·3·2) | 2/4g | 25/50g | 52% | — | 🏉 9' 76' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 17 in 21g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1) | 3/5g | 37/45g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 13 in 14g | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·1·0·2·1) | 5/4g | 44/34g | 70% | — | 🏉 61' 90' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 12 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·1) | 3/1g | 7/10g | 33% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 10 in 20g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 24/57g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 8 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/11g | 27/71g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/8g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 7 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 12/18g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 6 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 8/14g | 62/123g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/11g | 34/119g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 5/62g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 23/105g | 12% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Jai Culley | MID | 3 in 2g | 9/10g (0·0·4·1·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/43g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 16/101g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/13g | 78/130g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/36g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 6/68g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Amon ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 24 ✓ |
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 22 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.97 | 72% | 29 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 32 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.98 | 75% | 19 ✓ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 22 ✓ |
| James Worpel ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 27 ✗ |
| Josh Ward | 21.5 | $1.77 | 60% | 22 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 21 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Battle ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 69% | 17 ✓ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 25.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 28 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 28 ✗ |
| Christian Salem ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.94 | 74% | 30 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Viney | 21.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 22 ✗ |
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 27 ✗ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $2.00 | 74% | 10 ✓ |
| Max Gawn ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 73% | 27 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)