# Gold Coast SUNS v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 76 – 111 GWS GIANTS

_GWS GIANTS stand tall over Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 40 – 62 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 68% / GWS GIANTS 32% · People First Stadium · Sat, 16 Aug, 12:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ethan Read (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jy Farrar (20'), Connor Budarick (30'), Matt Rowell (48'), Ben Ainsworth (52' ×2), Ben King (77' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (88' Tipped ⚡) · GWS GIANTS: Harry Rowston (9' ×3 1st), Toby Greene (11' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Toby Bedford (28' ×2), Xavier OHalloran (38'), Darcy Jones (59'), Aaron Cadman (60' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Max Gruzewski (78' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jake Riccardi (80' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 68% | Lost |
| GWS GIANTS | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.7 predicted → 35 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs GWS GIANTS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 23, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 76–111 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 23 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast turned up with the ruck sorted and the clearances under control, and for a side that's often battled around the contest, that should have been the platform for a genuine result. Rory Lobb and whoever else was rotating through the middle won hit-outs 52 to 24, a landslide by any measure, and the Suns also edged clearances 37 to 31. On paper, that's the kind of first-phase dominance coaches build gameplans around.

It wasn't enough. Not close. GWS Giants beat Gold Coast by 35 points at People First Stadium, running out winners 111 to 76, and everywhere the ball went after that first contact, the Suns were second best.

The disposal count told part of it: 363 to 319 in the Giants' favour. GWS also won the contested ball 136 to 128, doubled the Suns in tackles with 68 to 50, and took more marks, 88 to 72, though marks inside 50 were dead even at 11 apiece. Gold Coast actually went inside 50 more often, 51 times to 56, so the entry count wasn't the problem. What happened once the ball got there was. Efficiency was close, 69.8% for the Suns against 70.8% for the Giants, but small gaps like that compound over four quarters, and intercepts ran 57 to 52 in the visitors' favour too.

The Giants controlled the game from the first bounce. Quarter time had them up 35 to 20, and by half time the margin had stretched to 62 to 40. Gold Coast was still within range at that point, two scoring bursts away from turning it into a contest. Instead the third quarter did the damage: the Suns managed just 14 points to the Giants' 37, and by three-quarter time it was 99 to 54, effectively over as a contest.

Credit to Gold Coast for the way they finished. They won the last quarter 22 to 12, the only term they won all day, but a good final twenty minutes doesn't rewrite three quarters of being outplayed at the coalface.

It's a result that sits oddly against the pre-match numbers. Alphr's model had Gold Coast favoured by 5.7 points and gave them a 68% chance of winning, based partly on ruck (1035 to 1041) and midfield (952 to 981) ratings that weren't far apart. GWS came in with the better recent form, an average winning margin of just under 3 points across their last five compared to Gold Coast's near-17, and a far superior win rate over that stretch. The Giants also averaged more points per game coming in, and while Gold Coast usually get more of the ball and go inside 50 more often based on their season numbers, none of that showed up when it counted here.

The combined score of 187 ran 21 points above the model's projected total of 166, and the actual margin, 35 points, blew out well past the predicted 5.7. All three of Alphr's pre-match picks missed. Gold Coast will look at the hit-out and clearance numbers and wonder how a game so lopsided in those columns ended up lopsided the other way on the scoreboard.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 20 | 20 | 14 | 22 | 76 |
| GWS GIANTS | 35 | 27 | 37 | 12 | 111 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Disposals | **363** |
| 128 | Contested poss. | **136** |
| **37** | Clearances | 31 |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| 72 | Marks | **88** |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 50 | Tackles | **68** |
| **52** | Hit-outs | 24 |
| 52 | Intercepts | **57** |
| 69.8% | Disposal eff. | **70.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 68% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 35 points. The game's 187 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 166. GWS GIANTS led 40–62 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 35. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.36 (edge -5.1%) — model probability 68.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -18.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 6 · Predicted total: 166

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | GWS GIANTS | 77 – 79 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2026 | R8 | Gold Coast SUNS | 83 – 63 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R15 | GWS GIANTS | 106 – 99 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R19 | GWS GIANTS | 89 – 50 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R4 | Gold Coast SUNS | 89 – 117 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 211 · 148 | 226 · 146 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 102/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.1/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.5/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 65.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 42 · 53 | 48 · 65 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 22.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.8% | 72% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 16 | 6 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 9.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 80.7% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.51) +4% · Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.25) -2% · Forwards 4.19/g (lg 4.45) -6%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.41/g (lg 1.25) +13% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.45) +1% · Midfielders 2.33/g (lg 2.36) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 57 in 20g | 26/10g (1·1·2·3·4·2·1·2·4·6) | 10/8g | 102/46g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' 74' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 37 in 19g | 15/10g (1·1·1·2·0·1·0·4·2·3) | 3/8g | 22/23g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 18 in 19g | 11/10g (0·0·2·2·1·0·1·3·1·1) | 6/9g | 70/62g | 64% | — | 🏉 52' 86' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 16 in 18g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 27/88g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 15 in 16g | 10/10g (1·0·0·1·3·1·1·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 8/7g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 78' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 11 in 18g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 14/37g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 8 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 26/50g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 2/6g | 18/46g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 18/40g | 26% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 35/54g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/15g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | 5 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·2·0) | 0/1g | 6/13g | 17% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/25g | 12% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 11/71g | 24% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/10g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 14/46g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/22g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/16g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/11g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Alex Sexton | FWD | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 74/75g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/53g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 7/52g | 4% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 42 in 21g | 29/10g (2·1·5·3·2·6·1·3·2·4) | 5/4g | 0/0g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' 82' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 35 in 19g | 18/10g (1·3·1·0·2·3·2·2·1·3) | 24/14g | 4/6g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 90' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 24 in 19g | 17/10g (3·0·3·2·1·1·2·0·0·5) | 7/3g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 21 in 17g | 12/10g (2·2·0·2·1·1·2·0·2·0) | 7/4g | 2/2g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 15 in 20g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 59% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 12 in 20g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·1·1) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 42% | — | 🏉 28' 82' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 12 in 20g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 0/3g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 4 in 5g | 7/9g (2·0·0·1·2·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' 94' 93' |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/13g | 4/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 12/11g | 7/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 9' 23' 63' |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 2/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 32 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 73% | 25 ✓ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.98 | 73% | 28 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 72% | 18 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 16 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 21.5 | $1.94 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 15 ✓ |
| Alex Davies ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 11 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.81 | 70% | 29 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 27 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 29 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 26 ✓ |
| Stephen Coniglio ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 19 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 15 ✓ |
| Xavier O'Halloran ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 13 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)