AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 68% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 35 points. The game's 187 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 166. GWS GIANTS led 40–62 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 35. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
68%
GWS GIANTS
32%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. GWS GIANTS are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Gold Coast SUNS counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. GWS GIANTS carry a 38-point ELO rating advantage (1530 vs 1492). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 5.7 points with a combined total of 166.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.36
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.1%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -18.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.1%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | W L L L L | 97.8 |
GWS GIANTS | W W W W L | 109.5 |
Avg Conceded
92.4
Gold Coast SUNS
90.2
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
17.1
Gold Coast SUNS
3.0
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
360.2
Gold Coast SUNS
351.3
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
56.9
Gold Coast SUNS
51.5
GWS GIANTS
ELO–Market Disagreement
GWS GIANTS hold the ELO advantage (1530 vs 1492), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.36).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 166 · Line: +5.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
-0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.