AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 29.8 but the actual margin was 57 points. Brisbane Lions led 26–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 57. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
16%
Brisbane Lions
84%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Fremantle. Fremantle are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Brisbane Lions counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Fremantle carry a 24-point ELO rating advantage (1535 vs 1511). Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 29.8 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @2.18
Winner ✓
Edge
+38.5%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+38.5%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W W W W L | 93.5 |
Brisbane Lions | W W W L L | 105.2 |
Avg Conceded
68.7
Fremantle
65.5
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
23.7
Fremantle
27.2
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
350.8
Fremantle
367.7
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
46.0
Fremantle
55.8
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 30 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: -29.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.48
Team Effectiveness
-0.43
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.