# Fremantle v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 44 – 101 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions put Fremantle to the sword._

Half time: 26 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 16% / Brisbane Lions 84% · Optus Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Josh Treacy (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Andrew Brayshaw (53'), Murphy Reid (80'), Luke Jackson (61') · Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (5' ×3 1st), Ryan Lester (12'), Zac Bailey (42' Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (45' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (61' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Hugh McCluggage (58'), Callum Ah Chee (81')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 84% | Won |
| Fremantle | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 29.8 predicted → 57 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 44–101 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 23 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty minutes into the second half, this was still a contest of sorts. Brisbane led by 31 at half time, useful but not fatal on the road. Then the third quarter happened: the Lions piled on 34 points to Fremantle's 11, turning a manageable gap into a rout, and by three-quarter time it was 68-37. Fremantle never got another sniff, conceding 33 more in the last term to go down 101-44 at Optus Stadium.

That third-quarter burst is the whole story. Fremantle actually won the second quarter 21-14, clawing at a deficit that had blown out to 15 points inside the opening term. For about 20 minutes of footy it looked like a game. Then Brisbane found another gear and Fremantle simply couldn't find one to match it.

The numbers explain how comprehensively the Lions took over. Brisbane finished with 395 disposals to 289, and did far more with them, hitting targets at 76.8% to Fremantle's 68.3%. Marks tell the same story in exaggerated form: 159 to 61, including 14 marks inside 50 to Fremantle's 10. That's a side controlling both territory and possession, not just accumulating stats for the sake of it.

Fremantle's one genuine edge, the ruck battle, won them precisely nothing. They dominated hit-outs 36 to 19, which on paper should feed clearances and first use of the ball. Instead Brisbane won clearances 32-26 anyway, turning Fremantle's ruck advantage into a footnote. Fremantle's defensive rating had gone into this one at 1088 against Brisbane's 996, the biggest gap of any position group on the ladder of ratings. It didn't show up where it mattered, not against a Brisbane outfit averaging 55.75 inside 50s a game across their last five to Fremantle's 46.02.

Form lines pointed this way before a ball was kicked. Brisbane came in averaging 105.2 points a game over their last five, Fremantle 93.5, and Brisbane's disposal count over that stretch (367.7 to 350.8) matched almost exactly what turned up on the day. This wasn't a side playing above itself. It was a side doing roughly what it had been doing all along, just doing it to a team that couldn't lay a glove on it after quarter-time.

Alphr's model had Brisbane favourites at 84% and picked the Lions by 29.8 points on a combined total of 153. The winner was never in doubt and the model called it straight. The margin model undercooked it badly though, picking a 30-point win in a 57-point demolition. All three picks for the match landed, but the margin miss is a reminder that these things can get away from projections fast once a team like Brisbane finds a third quarter like that.

Fremantle leave Optus Stadium with a ruck stat to hang onto and not much else. Fremantle 44, Brisbane Lions 101, decided in one brutal third-quarter stretch that the ledger will remember long after the final margin is forgotten.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 5 | 21 | 11 | 7 | 44 |
| Brisbane Lions | 20 | 14 | 34 | 33 | 101 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Disposals | **395** |
| 113 | Contested poss. | **126** |
| 26 | Clearances | **32** |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **51** |
| 61 | Marks | **159** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| **41** | Tackles | 37 |
| **36** | Hit-outs | 19 |
| **66** | Intercepts | 65 |
| 68.3% | Disposal eff. | **76.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 29.8 but the actual margin was 57 points. Brisbane Lions led 26–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 57. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.18 (edge +38.5%) — model probability 84.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +38.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 30 · Predicted total: 153

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 174 · 158 | 185 · 167 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 76/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.1/g | 18.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 65.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 76 · 58 | 64 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 158/g | 163/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.3/g | 25.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 69% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 20 | 22 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 120/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.8/g | 12.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 80% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.49/g (lg 4.42) +2% · Key Forwards 3.31/g (lg 3.63) -9% · Midfielders 2.16/g (lg 2.39) -10%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.45/g (lg 2.39) +3% · Key Forwards 3.42/g (lg 3.63) -6% · Forwards 4.13/g (lg 4.42) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 37 in 21g | 14/10g (0·0·3·3·2·1·0·0·3·2) | 5/3g | 61/41g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 49' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 31 in 17g | 24/10g (3·3·1·0·1·1·6·3·3·3) | 0/0g | 19/15g | 85% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 28 in 21g | 12/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·2·3·3·0) | 6/3g | 57/37g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 28 in 21g | 12/10g (1·0·2·0·1·2·0·4·0·2) | 6/4g | 65/55g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 25 in 20g | 12/10g (3·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·0·2) | 7/9g | 33/21g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 22 in 21g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 12/12g | 71% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 16 in 18g | 12/10g (0·2·3·2·2·0·1·1·1·0) | 7/9g | 35/40g | 60% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 11 in 15g | 10/10g (1·0·2·1·1·3·0·1·1·0) | 3/4g | 39/53g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 7 in 21g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 23/65g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 31/87g | 28% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 23/63g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/8g | 3/60g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/5g | 28/60g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/21g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 10/20g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 12/34g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 8/51g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 21/66g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/36g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/88g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nat Fyfe | MID | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 26/52g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/22g | 4% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 43 in 20g | 25/10g (2·0·5·5·1·2·1·0·6·3) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 69' 73' 86' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 31 in 20g | 14/10g (1·0·1·1·0·5·1·1·2·2) | 10/7g | 9/5g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 25 in 21g | 15/10g (1·2·1·3·0·2·1·3·2·0) | 3/7g | 4/6g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' 86' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 25 in 21g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 12/9g | 9/6g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 22 in 20g | 9/10g (4·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 6/8g | 3/5g | 68% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 21 in 19g | 10/10g (1·2·0·0·3·3·1·0·0·0) | 27/13g | 12/6g | 70% | — | 🏉 5' 77' 76' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 11 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 10 in 21g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 2/7g | 50% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·3·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 1/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 6 in 21g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 5 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 5/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/15g | 4/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 14/8g | 7/5g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Beecken | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 0% | — | 🏉 12' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 26 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 27.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 22 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 25.5 | $1.89 | 62% | 24 ✓ |
| Jaeger O'Meara ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 71% | 12 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 19.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 18 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 19.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 11 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 18.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 9 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid | 14.5 | $1.78 | 56% | 13 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 23 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 26.5 | $1.92 | 56% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 24 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 23.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 27 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 73% | 28 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 72% | 19 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 32 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 19.5 | $1.89 | 62% | 21 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $2.00 | 45% | 20 ✗ |
| Cam Rayner ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.80 | 69% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)