AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 29.8 but the actual margin was 57 points. Brisbane Lions led 26–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 57. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
16%
Brisbane Lions
84%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Fremantle. Fremantle are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Brisbane Lions counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Fremantle carry a 24-point ELO rating advantage (1535 vs 1511). Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 29.8 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @2.18
Winner ✓
Edge
+38.5%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+38.5%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W W W W L | 93.5 |
Brisbane Lions | W W W L L | 105.2 |
Avg Conceded
68.7
Fremantle
65.5
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
23.7
Fremantle
27.2
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
350.8
Fremantle
367.7
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
46.0
Fremantle
55.8
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 30 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: -29.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.48
Team Effectiveness
-0.43
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.