AI Game Review
St Kilda defied the model's 69% prediction for Essendon, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.6 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 157 was close to the actual 152, within 5 points. St Kilda trailed 36–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 75–77. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 166.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
69%
St Kilda
31%
AI Match Overview
Essendon are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Essendon ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model predicts Essendon by 2.6 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @5.00
Lost ✗
Edge
+48.8%
Line / Spread
Essendon +30.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+48.8%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | W W L L L | 83.9 |
St Kilda | W W L L L | 103.3 |
Avg Conceded
76.8
Essendon
87.3
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-8.7
Essendon
25.4
St Kilda
Disposals
347.5
Essendon
360.5
St Kilda
Inside 50s
57.4
Essendon
49.0
St Kilda
ELO–Market Disagreement
Essendon hold the ELO advantage (1524 vs 1506), but the market favours St Kilda (@1.25).
The model sides with ELO, Essendon predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Essendon predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: +2.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.07
Team Effectiveness
+0.36
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.