# Essendon v St Kilda — AFL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 75 – 77 St Kilda

_St Kilda roar back to topple Essendon._

Half time: 36 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 69% / St Kilda 31% · Marvel Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Peter Wright (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Liam McMahon (6' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Rhys Unwin (21' Tipped ⚡), Luamon Lual (37'), Kyle Langford (45' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Archie Perkins (63' ×2), Final quarter (34m 10s)Liam McMahon (60'), Jye Menzie (67') · St Kilda: Cooper Sharman (35' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jack Higgins (50' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mason Wood (58' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilson (76'), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (87')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 69% | Lost |
| St Kilda | 31% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.6 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 75–77 St Kilda in AFL Round 23 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon led by 11 at the first change, St Kilda by two points at the final siren. Everything in between is where this game was actually decided.

The scoreboard tells a clean story if you read it in order. Essendon burst clear early, 20 to 9 at quarter time, the kind of margin that looks safe on paper. It wasn't. St Kilda clawed it back to within a point by half time, 36 to 35, then flipped the contest entirely in the third quarter, going to the last break up 61 to 55. From there it was about defending six points, and St Kilda did just enough, Essendon's late push falling two points short at 75 to 77.

The clearance count explains the third-quarter swing better than anything else. St Kilda won that battle 37 to 28, and in a game this tight, extra first use of the ball is worth more than the raw disposal numbers suggest. Essendon actually racked up more of the footy overall, 369 disposals to 331, with better efficiency too at 74.8% to 72.7%. But moving the ball cleanly counts for less when the other side keeps winning it first.

Essendon's ruck division had the sort of day that should have delivered more. Fifty two hit-outs to 32 is a heavy advantage, and it showed in the marking numbers too, 115 to 82. None of it translated into enough scoreboard pressure at the right time, because St Kilda's forwards kept finding a way through, 14 marks inside 50 to Essendon's 13 despite the general play imbalance.

Go back to the pre-match numbers and St Kilda's forward line rating, 1059 to Essendon's 973, was the one clear positional edge they carried into the game. It showed up when it mattered. Essendon's midfield was rated well clear, 1083 to 954, yet St Kilda still won the clearance count on the day. Form lines pointed the same way before a ball was bounced, St Kilda arriving with an average winning margin of plus 25.4 points across their last five, Essendon sitting at minus 8.7. The favourite by rating still lost.

Alphr's model had Essendon at 69% to win, with a predicted margin of 2.6 points and a combined total of 157. The margin read was almost exact, just the winner was the wrong team. The total landed close too, 152 points against a projected 157, and the under 166.5 call was right. One correct call from three on this one, a reminder that a tight predicted margin can flip either way once the ball's actually bounced.

St Kilda leaked more tackles than they laid, less disposal efficiency, fewer marks, and still walked away with the four points. Essendon had the general play statistics but not the ones that mattered when it counted, clearances and scoreboard nerve in that third term. Two points is two points either way.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 20 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 75 |
| St Kilda | 9 | 26 | 26 | 16 | 77 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **369** | Disposals | 331 |
| **120** | Contested poss. | 118 |
| 28 | Clearances | **37** |
| **45** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| **115** | Marks | 82 |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 66 | Tackles | **67** |
| **52** | Hit-outs | 32 |
| **62** | Intercepts | 56 |
| **74.8%** | Disposal eff. | 72.7% |

**Model Report Card**

St Kilda defied the model's 69% prediction for Essendon, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.6 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 157 was close to the actual 152, within 5 points. St Kilda trailed 36–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 75–77. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 166.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $5.00 (edge +48.8%) — model probability 68.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +30.5 @ $1.91 (edge +48.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 3 · Predicted total: 157

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 108 · 185 | 147 · 182 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 98/g | 68/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.1/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.3/g | 6.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 70% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 70 · 65 | 66 · 77 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 169/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.3/g | 23.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.1/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.2% | 69.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 27 | 30 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.9/g | 13.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 77.7% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.49/g (lg 2.39) +4% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.42) -5% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.63) -7%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.45/g (lg 1.26) +15% · Forwards 4.94/g (lg 4.42) +12% · Key Forwards 4.05/g (lg 3.63) +12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 25 in 16g | 14/10g (2·3·2·1·1·0·2·2·0·1) | 13/7g | 79/39g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 15 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 29/34g | 46% | — | 🏉 63' 71' |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 12 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/7g | 57% | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 77/91g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 9 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/6g | 11/20g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Liam McMahon | KF | 8 in 4g | 8/4g (2·2·0·4) | 0/0g | 4/2g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' 86' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 12/33g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 24/38g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 5 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 5 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/24g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·4·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 10/17g | 44% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 6g | 10/10g (2·0·1·3·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 65/54g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 88' |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 12/48g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 8/62g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/17g | 60/132g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 12/54g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Unwin | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $2.05 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 43 in 21g | 15/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·2·4·2·2) | 16/8g | 94/64g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' 84' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 29 in 19g | 12/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·2·2·1·2) | 3/2g | 46/38g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' 47' 85' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 21 in 21g | 12/10g (2·0·1·1·3·3·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 11/12g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 20 in 19g | 8/10g (0·1·3·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 5/6g | 83/80g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' 82' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 16 in 21g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·2·4·0·1) | 1/4g | 11/49g | 32% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 9 in 16g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 15/21g | 45% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 9 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 40/108g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 9 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 46/78g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/17g | 21/82g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/7g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/3g | 22/30g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 40/98g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/39g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 13/23g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 28/134g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Alex Dodson | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/77g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/42g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 10/51g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.93 | 77% | 27 ✗ |
| Mason Redman ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.82 | 75% | 36 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 77% | 35 ✗ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $2.00 | 68% | 28 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 24 ✗ |
| Jade Gresham ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 85% | 12 ✓ |
| Jayden Laverde | 16.5 | $1.83 | 62% | 13 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior | 15.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 20 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 33.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 24 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.77 | 72% | 23 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.85 | 67% | 26 ✓ |
| Jack Macrae | 25.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 17 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall | 22.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 21.5 | $1.80 | 46% | 22 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Steele | 20.5 | $1.90 | 40% | 27 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 19.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 10 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)