# Carlton v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 118 – 64 Port Adelaide

_Carlton put Port Adelaide to the sword._

Half time: 83 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 89% / Port Adelaide 11% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 16 Aug, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Ashton Moir (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Francis Evans (10' ×2), Zac Williams (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Flynn Young (15' ×2), Harry McKay (17' ×7 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Cripps (49' ×2), Tom De Koning (65') · Port Adelaide: Travis Boak (20'), Mitch Georgiades (25' Tipped ⚡), Jack Whitlock (29' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Joe Richards (68'), Christian Moraes (92'), Darcy Byrne-Jones (94')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 89% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 11% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 39.1 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 118–64 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 23 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide came into this rated the stronger side across almost every position. Higher midfield number, higher defence number, higher ruck number, and a shade in front at forward too. On paper it was their game to control. On the scoreboard, none of that showed up.

To their credit, Port did win some of the physical battles. They out hit-out'd Carlton 39 to 31, laid more tackles at 53 to 42, and even edged the intercept count 53 to 51. That's a side that competed hard around the contest and didn't fold on effort. The trouble was everything downstream of those wins.

Carlton had the clearances, 41 to 30, which meant they were first to the ball out of stoppages more often than not. From there they simply had more of it: 375 disposals to 306, and they used it better too, hitting targets at 76.6% against Port's 70.4%. Add in a lopsided 65 inside 50s to 38, and Port's defenders were dealing with a side that kept coming and rarely wasted the ball once it arrived forward. Marks inside 50 was one area Port held their own, losing that battle only 18 to 16, so the entries that did stick weren't a disaster. There just weren't enough of them.

The scoreboard confirms how early this got away from Port. Carlton led 44 to 20 at quarter time, already a big cushion. By half time it was 83 to 28, the margin nearly tripling in a quarter. Three-quarter time had it at 99 to 38, and Port had no answer in any of those breaks. Carlton finished the job late, running out 118 to 64.

That's a 54-point beating, and it tracks with the form both sides brought into Marvel Stadium. Carlton's last five games had them averaging a 23.3-point margin and 108.3 points a game. Port's last five had them averaging just a 4.1-point margin with only 1.8 wins from five, scoring around 90 a game and conceding 66. Put a side that clinical up against one that's been treading water, and let the more clinical side also win the inside 50 count by 27, and this is roughly the shape you get.

Alphr's model had Carlton at 89% to win, and that call landed. The margin was the one that missed, tipped at 39.1 when the actual gap finished at 54, so the model badly underestimated how far Carlton would pull away. The total score was closer to the mark: 177 predicted against 182 delivered, within five points. All three headline picks, winner, total and overall read, came in, even if the margin number was more guesswork than science this time around.

Port's effort in the guts of the contest, the tackles, the hit-outs, the intercepts, wasn't nothing. It just never turned into enough entries forward, and when it did, Carlton's defenders held their own too. Carlton had more of everything that actually decides games, and used it with far more precision. Wins and misses for the model, but for Port Adelaide, this one was a lesson in how much territory and disposal efficiency still matter more than raw contest numbers.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 44 | 39 | 16 | 19 | 118 |
| Port Adelaide | 20 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 64 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **375** | Disposals | 306 |
| **143** | Contested poss. | 107 |
| **41** | Clearances | 30 |
| **65** | Inside 50s | 38 |
| **93** | Marks | 79 |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 16 |
| 42 | Tackles | **53** |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **39** |
| 51 | Intercepts | **53** |
| **76.6%** | Disposal eff. | 70.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 89% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 39.1 but the actual margin was 54 points. Total score prediction of 177 was close to the actual 182, within 5 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.44 (edge +19.5%) — model probability 88.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 39 · Predicted total: 177

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 141 · 171 | 154 · 187 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 84/g | 100/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.2/g | 16/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 7.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.4% | 67.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 52 · 59 | 38 · 67 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 163/g | 140/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.6/g | 21.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 67.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 27 | 33 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.9/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.5% | 74.4% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.46/g (lg 1.25) +17% · Forwards 4.57/g (lg 4.42) +3% · Key Forwards 3.57/g (lg 3.63) -2%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Forwards 4.51/g (lg 4.42) +2% · Defenders 1.23/g (lg 1.25) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 19 in 17g | 11/10g (2·2·1·1·3·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/10g | 17/29g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 57' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 16 in 21g | 9/10g (2·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 6/3g | 27/19g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 14 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 18/21g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·0·3·0·3·2·0·1·1·3) | 12/6g | 86/43g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 26' 51' 53' 82' 74' 85' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 12 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 45/70g | 38% | — | 🏉 49' 61' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 11 in 19g | 6/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/7g | 7/22g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 8 in 8g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·4) | 0/1g | 4/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 10' 86' |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | 7 in 7g | 9/9g (1·1·0·1·0·4·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 6 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 12/42g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/29g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 28/70g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 10/41g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/30g | 30% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/20g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 4/55g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 17% | — | 🏉 15' 80' |
| – | Hudson O'Keeffe | RUC | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/61g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/26g | 2% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 53 in 21g | 29/10g (1·7·1·5·4·3·2·1·3·2) | 19/6g | 15/9g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 27 in 17g | 16/10g (2·0·2·2·1·1·3·3·0·2) | 7/5g | 13/9g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 18 in 20g | 7/10g (0·2·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 6/21g | 56% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 13 in 20g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 51% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 10 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 7/8g | 12/14g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 10 in 13g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 2/3g | 57% | — | — |
| – | Jed McEntee | FWD | 5 in 4g | 10/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·1·2) | 2/3g | 6/5g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 11/18g | 19/33g | 26% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 8/28g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Will Lorenz | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/14g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 1/23g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 10/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.91 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 78' 97' |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Mani Liddy | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.75 | 68% | 22 ✓ |
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 35 ✗ |
| Cooper Lord ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 81% | 16 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 20.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Adam Saad ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 9 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 23 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Wines | 27.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 15 ✓ |
| Connor Rozee | 25.5 | $1.75 | 49% | 22 ✓ |
| Zak Butters | 24.5 | $1.94 | 42% | 29 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 68% | 17 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 19.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 22 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)