AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 14.9 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 115 points came in 52 points lower than the predicted 167. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
76%
Collingwood
24%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. Collingwood are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Adelaide Crows counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Collingwood carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1516 vs 1491). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 14.9 points with a combined total of 167.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Total Points
Over 156.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W W L L | 106.2 |
Collingwood | W W L L L | 82.3 |
Avg Conceded
97.5
Adelaide Crows
81.8
Collingwood
Avg Margin
29.9
Adelaide Crows
-9.1
Collingwood
Disposals
349.3
Adelaide Crows
341.6
Collingwood
Inside 50s
55.2
Adelaide Crows
49.7
Collingwood
ELO–Market Disagreement
Collingwood hold the ELO advantage (1516 vs 1491), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.50).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 167 · Line: +14.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
0.00
Team Effectiveness
-0.21
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.