# Adelaide Crows v Collingwood — AFL Round 23 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 59 – 56 Collingwood

_Adelaide Crows swoop on a gallant Collingwood._

Half time: 39 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 76% / Collingwood 24% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 16 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Darcy Fogarty (15' Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (38' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Daniel Curtin (40'), Izak Rankine (62' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Cumming (90'), Final quarter (33m 15s)James Peatling (81'), Riley Thilthorpe (89' Tipped ⚡) · Collingwood: Tim Membrey (7' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Dan Houston (19'), Darcy Cameron (33'), Jack Crisp (87'), Nick Daicos (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 76% | Won |
| Collingwood | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.9 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 23 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 59–56 Collingwood in AFL Round 23 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixty hit-outs to thirty-six. That number sits under everything Adelaide Crows did against Collingwood, and it's a big part of how they scraped home 59-56 at Adelaide Oval. Ruck dominance that clean doesn't always win a game, but here it gave Adelaide first use of the footy often enough to survive a night where almost every other clearance stat belonged to Collingwood.

Adelaide needed it, because the start was ugly. Collingwood led 33-8 at quarter time, a 25-point margin that had the game looking like a rout in the making. Then Adelaide flipped it entirely, outscoring Collingwood 31-1 in the second term to lead 39-34 at half time. That passage decided the contest as much as anything, not some late-game heroics. From there it tightened into an arm-wrestle: Adelaide 46-44 up at the final change, then a 13-12 shootout in the last quarter to close it out 59-56.

The stat sheet reads like a form guide for a Collingwood win that never quite arrived. Collingwood won clearances 52-38, went inside 50 an extraordinary 71 times to Adelaide's 37, and took 10 marks inside forward 50 to Adelaide's 5. They out-tackled Adelaide 85-63 as well, all the ingredients of a side that should have run away with it.

Instead, Adelaide's disposal efficiency, 68.0% to 66.9%, and their edge in contested possession, 154 to 137, meant the footy they did use, they used well. Volume without conversion is Collingwood's story here. Adelaide also won total disposals 341 to 339 and marks 83 to 76, modest edges but ones that mattered when the margin came down to three points. Intercepts were close too, 78 to 76 in Adelaide's favour, another small thing that added up.

Adelaide's ruck strength, rated 972 to Collingwood's 961 pre-match, delivered exactly what the numbers promised and then some, given the 60-36 hit-out gap dwarfs that ratings edge. Collingwood's midfield rated stronger, 962 to 954, and it showed up in the clearance count all night. Collingwood's forward line also rated well ahead, 1045 to 989, and the 71-to-37 inside 50 count backs that up.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 8 | 31 | 7 | 13 | 59 |
| Collingwood | 33 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 56 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **341** | Disposals | 339 |
| **154** | Contested poss. | 137 |
| 38 | Clearances | **52** |
| 37 | Inside 50s | **71** |
| **83** | Marks | 76 |
| 5 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| 63 | Tackles | **85** |
| **60** | Hit-outs | 36 |
| **78** | Intercepts | 76 |
| **68.0%** | Disposal eff. | 66.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 14.9 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 115 points came in 52 points lower than the predicted 167. The model went 2/3 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 12.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.50 (edge +9.8%) — model probability 76.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 156.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 15 · Predicted total: 167

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 220 · 143 | 206 · 137 |
| Goal Assists | 5.2/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9/g | 10.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 67.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 84 · 50 | 44 · 61 |
| Goal Assists | 4.9/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.9/g | 19.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 68.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 18 | 17 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.2/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 80% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.51) -2% · Defenders 1.17/g (lg 1.25) -6% · Key Forwards 3.29/g (lg 3.64) -10%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.33/g (lg 1.25) +6% · Midfielders 2.33/g (lg 2.39) -3% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.42) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 51 in 21g | 26/10g (2·1·0·5·0·6·2·3·4·3) | 3/5g | 58/43g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 89' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 37 in 20g | 11/10g (2·0·0·1·2·3·0·1·1·1) | 14/10g | 113/70g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 34 in 19g | 17/10g (1·1·1·0·2·2·2·2·3·3) | 24/14g | 285/127g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 57' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 32 in 21g | 15/10g (3·3·2·0·2·0·1·3·0·1) | 0/10g | 64/73g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 30 in 21g | 16/10g (1·0·1·1·5·1·2·1·3·1) | 9/8g | 67/35g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 17 in 21g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·2·1) | 4/11g | 29/53g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 16 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0) | 7/12g | 16/24g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 13 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 3/6g | 20/46g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 10 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/17g | 40% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 7 in 19g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 5/12g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/19g | 30% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/40g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 9/78g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 31/116g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 18/66g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/46g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harry Schoenberg | FWD | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 14/35g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Murphy | FWD | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 44/66g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/36g | 0% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 48 in 21g | 20/10g (5·1·2·1·4·3·2·1·1·0) | 18/13g | 22/11g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' 94' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 35 in 18g | 19/10g (2·4·1·1·2·2·2·2·1·2) | 8/8g | 15/9g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 28 in 19g | 17/10g (3·1·1·2·2·2·2·2·1·1) | 11/9g | 18/14g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 23' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 18 in 16g | 10/10g (0·2·2·0·4·0·0·1·1·0) | 10/7g | 6/9g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 15 in 21g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·1·3·1·0) | 4/6g | 5/6g | 66% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 11 in 19g | 8/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 7/15g | 4/14g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 10 in 12g | 9/10g (2·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 8/5g | 10/5g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 8 in 19g | 7/10g (0·0·2·2·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 3/9g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 7 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 5/13g | 38% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 7 in 7g | 11/10g (1·1·2·0·2·2·1·0·1·1) | 5/7g | 4/8g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 5/6g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/15g | 29/91g | 22% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 3/6g | 22% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/13g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 4/8g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/14g | 4/11g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Wil Parker | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 23 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 20 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 82% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 20.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 27 ✗ |
| Daniel Curtin ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 14 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 18.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 22 ✗ |
| Brodie Smith ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $2.00 | 64% | 18 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 30.5 | $1.94 | 58% | 29 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.93 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 23.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 24 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 20.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 21 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.97 | 52% | 23 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.77 | 82% | 22 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron | 17.5 | $1.74 | 65% | 24 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)