AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.8 but the actual margin was 88 points. Total score prediction of 175 was close to the actual 176, within 1 points. Western Bulldogs led 81–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 88. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
79%
GWS GIANTS
21%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 102-point ELO rating advantage (1608 vs 1507). The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 16.8 points with a combined total of 175.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.0%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.0%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W W L L | 70.7 |
GWS GIANTS | W W W L L | 74.8 |
Avg Conceded
76.2
Western Bulldogs
68.2
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
12.4
Western Bulldogs
-3.2
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
344.4
Western Bulldogs
332.5
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
43.7
Western Bulldogs
42.9
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
79%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 17 points
Predicted total: 175 · Line: +16.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.48
Team Effectiveness
+0.27
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.