AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 16.8 but the actual margin was 88 points. Total score prediction of 175 was close to the actual 176 — within 1 points. Western Bulldogs led 81–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 88. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
79%
GWS GIANTS
21%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 16.8 points with a combined total of 175.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.0%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.0%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | WWWLL | 111.2 |
GWS GIANTS | WWWWW | 106.8 |
Avg Conceded
85.2
Western Bulldogs
70.0
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
26.0
Western Bulldogs
36.8
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
357.2
Western Bulldogs
360.2
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
Western Bulldogs
50.0
GWS GIANTS
ELO–Market Disagreement
GWS GIANTS hold the ELO advantage (1693 vs 1689), but the market favours Western Bulldogs (@1.40).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
79%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 17 points
Predicted total: 175 · Line: +16.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.48
Team Effectiveness
+0.27
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.