AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 35.6 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 122 points came in 45 points lower than the predicted 167. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
88%
Essendon
12%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 88%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form. Sydney Swans carry a 244-point ELO rating advantage (1482 vs 1238). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 35.6 points with a combined total of 167.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.12
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.6%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans -37.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.6%
Total Points
Over 139.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | WWWLL | 84.8 |
Essendon | LLLLL | 56.0 |
Avg Conceded
86.0
Sydney Swans
102.4
Essendon
Avg Margin
-1.2
Sydney Swans
-46.4
Essendon
Disposals
342.6
Sydney Swans
343.0
Essendon
Inside 50s
50.0
Sydney Swans
50.0
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
88%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 36 points
Predicted total: 167 · Line: +35.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.46
Team Effectiveness
+0.15
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.