AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 35.6 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 122 points came in 45 points lower than the predicted 167. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
88%
Essendon
12%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 88%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. Essendon are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Essendon with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 35.6 points with a combined total of 167.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.12
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.6%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans -37.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.6%
Total Points
Over 139.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W L L L L | 101.1 |
Essendon | W W L L L | 98.0 |
Avg Conceded
74.9
Sydney Swans
82.3
Essendon
Avg Margin
24.1
Sydney Swans
8.0
Essendon
Disposals
350.8
Sydney Swans
359.3
Essendon
Inside 50s
46.8
Sydney Swans
50.3
Essendon
ELO–Market Disagreement
Essendon hold the ELO advantage (1503 vs 1485), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.12).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
88%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 36 points
Predicted total: 167 · Line: +35.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.46
Team Effectiveness
+0.15
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.