# Sydney Swans v Essendon — AFL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 68 – 54 Essendon

_Sydney Swans sail past Essendon._

Half time: 45 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 88% / Essendon 12% · SCG · Sat, 02 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Errol Gulden (4' 1st), Braeden Campbell (21' ×2), Justin McInerney (25' ×2), James Rowbottom (29'), Jack Buller (53' Tipped ⚡), Tom Papley (60' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Heeney (66' Tipped ⚡) · Essendon: Archie Perkins (10'), Matt Guelfi (19'), Angus Clarke (63'), Archie May (70' Tipped ⚡), Mason Redman (66'), Isaac Kako (73'), Lachlan Blakiston (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 88% | Won |
| Essendon | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 35.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 68–54 Essendon in AFL Round 21 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at the SCG had this one looking like a rout. Sydney Swans led 45-18, a 27-point buffer built on repeat forward entries and clean use of the footy. By three-quarter time it was 60-34. The margin had actually shrunk slightly in percentage terms, which in hindsight was the first hint Essendon hadn't packed it in.

The last quarter flipped the momentum, even if it didn't flip the result. Essendon outscored Sydney 20 to 8 in the final term, cutting a 26-point deficit back to 14 by the siren. Full time: Sydney Swans 68, Essendon 54. Not the coast home the earlier margin suggested, but nowhere near enough for Essendon to complete the job either.

The disposal count explains most of the first three quarters. Sydney finished with 415 disposals to 302, and their efficiency was better too, 71.1% to 68.8%. When you're getting the ball that much more often and using it more cleanly, 61 inside 50s to 45 and 136 marks to 42 follow pretty naturally. Nineteen marks inside 50 to four is the number that really hurt Essendon. Sydney weren't just getting the ball forward, they were locking it in there once it arrived.

Essendon had answers in two areas that matter in theory: clearances, 37 to 33, and tackles, 50 to 44. Both line up with their higher-rated midfield coming into the game, 1048 to Sydney's 1007. Problem was, none of that pressure showed up on the scoreboard, because Sydney's ruck division flipped the expected script completely. The Swans won hit-outs 36 to 26 despite Essendon carrying the stronger rated ruck on paper, 1005 to 927.

Intercepts told a similar story to the overall shape of the game. Sydney read the ball better in defence, 68 to 57, despite Essendon's defence being rated well above Sydney's pre-match, 1037 to 950. On raw ratings, Essendon should have troubled Sydney in three of four position groups, midfield, forwards and defence. On the day, only the clearance and tackle counts backed that up, and neither did enough to move the scoreboard.

Alphr's model called the win correctly, giving Sydney Swans an 88% chance before the bounce, with the ratings gap, 1485 to 1503, still tight enough to expect a contest. The margin model missed badly though. It had Sydney winning by 35.6 points; the actual margin was 14.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 27 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 68 |
| Essendon | 16 | 2 | 16 | 20 | 54 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **415** | Disposals | 302 |
| **133** | Contested poss. | 125 |
| 33 | Clearances | **37** |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **136** | Marks | 42 |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| 44 | Tackles | **50** |
| **36** | Hit-outs | 26 |
| **68** | Intercepts | 57 |
| **71.1%** | Disposal eff. | 68.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 35.6 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 122 points came in 45 points lower than the predicted 167. The model went 2/3 on this match. Sydney Swans covered the 37.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.12 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 87.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -37.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 139.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 36 · Predicted total: 167

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 114 · 148 | 97 · 168 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.8/g | 15.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.1/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 67.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 83 · 62 | 67 · 58 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 147/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.5/g | 22.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.9% | 71.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 23 | 12 · 27 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.6/g | 9.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.8% | 79.4% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.5/g (lg 1.26) +19% · Key Forwards 4.05/g (lg 3.61) +12% · Forwards 4.95/g (lg 4.42) +12%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.4) +0% · Forwards 4.29/g (lg 4.42) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 29 in 19g | 21/10g (2·3·1·1·2·5·0·1·5·1) | 22/16g | 132/99g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 17 in 19g | 8/10g (2·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 6/6g | 46/51g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 12 in 19g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 12/42g | 38% | — | 🏉 21' 64' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 10 in 19g | 7/10g (0·0·0·3·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 12/23g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 23/63g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 7 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·3·0·0) | 2/18g | 21/117g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 6 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 5/19g | 6/27g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 4/8g | 19/48g | 40% | — | 🏉 25' 81' |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 5 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/12g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 5 in 5g | 5/6g (0·1·0·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 22/58g | 24% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 3/4g | 2/12g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 4 in 7g | 10/10g (2·3·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 24/13g | 141/85g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 5/7g | 31/43g | 48% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 11/79g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 17/63g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/7g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 20/82g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 6/116g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 17/88g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Dattoli | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/48g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 16/33g | 22% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 24 in 14g | 16/10g (1·2·2·3·2·1·1·0·2·2) | 15/12g | 6/6g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 79% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 14 in 16g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/7g | 1/3g | 48% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 11 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 9 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/9g | 3/4g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/18g | 4/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Archer May | KF | 6 in 5g | 6/5g (0·2·3·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.84 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (3·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Liam McMahon | KF | 4 in 2g | 4/2g (2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $17.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 56% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/23g | 0/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/19g | 5/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Oskar Smartt | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 30 ✗ |
| Isaac Heeney | 25.5 | $1.85 | 52% | 28 ✗ |
| Callum Mills | 25.5 | $1.75 | 57% | 23 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 23.5 | $1.91 | 47% | 26 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy | 23.5 | $1.82 | 59% | 39 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey | 22.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Justin McInerney | 19.5 | $2.01 | 36% | 27 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick | 19.5 | $2.00 | 51% | 24 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 25.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 19 ✓ |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 21 ✓ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.78 | 70% | 22 ✓ |
| Dylan Shiel ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 11 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.99 | 60% | 20 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 20.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 26 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma | 19.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Jaxon Prior | 14.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)