Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
97%
West Coast Eagles
3%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne are clear favourites here at 97%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Melbourne carry a 31-point ELO rating advantage (1530 vs 1500). The margin model predicts Melbourne by 55.5 points with a combined total of 200.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.2%
Line / Spread
Melbourne -48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.2%
Total Points
Over 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W W L L | 92.6 |
West Coast Eagles | W W W L L | 102.8 |
Avg Conceded
81.2
Melbourne
72.9
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
19.0
Melbourne
22.2
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
369.7
Melbourne
334.3
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
45.9
Melbourne
50.3
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
97%
Melbourne predicted to win by 56 points
Predicted total: 200 · Line: +55.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.23
Team Effectiveness
+0.40
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.