AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 94.3 was reasonable against the actual 84-point result. The game's 130 points came in 70 points lower than the predicted 200. Gold Coast SUNS led 41–5 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 84. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
98%
Richmond
2%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1507 vs 1442). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 94.3 points with a combined total of 200.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.03
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.4%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -55.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.4%
Total Points
Over 167.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W L L | 101.3 |
Richmond | W W L L L | 84.8 |
Avg Conceded
76.0
Gold Coast SUNS
96.6
Richmond
Avg Margin
21.2
Gold Coast SUNS
-3.8
Richmond
Disposals
361.6
Gold Coast SUNS
353.6
Richmond
Inside 50s
52.1
Gold Coast SUNS
47.2
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 94 points
Predicted total: 200 · Line: +94.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
+0.66
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.