# Gold Coast SUNS v Richmond — AFL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 107 – 23 Richmond

_Gold Coast SUNS put Richmond to the sword._

Half time: 41 – 5 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 98% / Richmond 2% · People First Stadium · Sat, 02 Aug, 04:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (11' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Ethan Read (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (56' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Humphrey (62' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jy Farrar (77'), Mac Andrew (72'), Ben Long (74' Tipped ⚡), Brayden Fiorini (86') · Richmond: Harry Armstrong (60' Tipped ⚡), Rhyan Mansell (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 98% | Won |
| Richmond | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 94.3 predicted → 84 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 107–23 Richmond in AFL Round 21 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

A quarter of footy settled this one, and the other three were just formality. Gold Coast SUNS led 25-1 at the first change, and Richmond never found a way back into it. By full time it was 107-23, an 84-point demolition at People First Stadium.

That opening term set the terms of engagement. Richmond kicked one goal in the first quarter and never built any real head of steam after it. Half time had the SUNS out to 41-5, and by three-quarter time it was 75-14. The margin only grew from there, Gold Coast adding another 32 points in the last quarter while Richmond managed nine. Once the gap hit 36 points at the main break, this was about margin, not outcome.

The disposal count tells you why it never turned. Gold Coast finished with 396 disposals to Richmond's 311, and did far more with it, hitting targets at 81.7% against 69.6%. That's not a small edge, that's a side playing catch-up to the footy all day. Add 37 clearances to 24 and 119 contested possessions to 95, and Richmond simply weren't winning enough of the ball to ever apply scoreboard pressure.

Forward half was worse again. Gold Coast went inside 50 fifty-six times to Richmond's 34, and were ruthless with the chances, taking 22 marks inside 50 to just 7. Twenty-two uncontested looks at goal from close range will do this to a scoreline. The pre-match ratings had Gold Coast's forward line at 1007 against Richmond's 971, and on this evidence that gap undersold it.

Richmond weren't blown out at every contest. Intercepts were locked at 57 apiece, so Richmond did generate turnover ball, they just couldn't convert it into consistent forward pressure once they had it. The tackle count, 59 to 44 in Gold Coast's favour, suggests Richmond were doing more chasing than hunting.

Form lines pointed this way well before the first bounce. Gold Coast came in averaging 101.3 points scored and just 76 conceded across their last five, an average margin of plus-21. Richmond's recent form had them at minus-3.8 on average, conceding almost 97 a game. Two sides trending in opposite directions, and Saturday just confirmed it in the most literal way possible.

Alphr's model had Gold Coast at 98% to win and picked the margin at 94.3 points, comfortably in the neighbourhood of the actual 84. The total was the miss: 200 points projected, 130 delivered, a gap of 70 points that speaks to how little scoring changed hands once the result was decided in the first quarter. Two from three isn't a bad night's work when the headline call, the winner, was never really in doubt.

Richmond will look at the tackle and intercept numbers and find some fight in there. Everything else in the stat sheet says this was over by quarter time, and the SUNS simply administered the rest.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 25 | 16 | 34 | 32 | 107 |
| Richmond | 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **396** | Disposals | 311 |
| **119** | Contested poss. | 95 |
| **37** | Clearances | 24 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 34 |
| **123** | Marks | 86 |
| **22** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **59** | Tackles | 44 |
| **41** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| 57 | Intercepts | 57 |
| **81.7%** | Disposal eff. | 69.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 94.3 was reasonable against the actual 84-point result. The game's 130 points came in 70 points lower than the predicted 200. Gold Coast SUNS led 41–5 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 84. The model went 2/3 on this match. Gold Coast SUNS covered the 55.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.03 (edge +0.4%) — model probability 97.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 94 · Predicted total: 200

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 187 · 136 | 115 · 164 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 102/g | 81/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 15.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 6.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.1% | 66.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 38 · 52 | 39 · 71 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 125/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.2/g | 17.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.2% | 69.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 16 | 19 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.9/g | 11.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 78.7% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.55/g (lg 3.61) +26% · Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.51) +18% · Midfielders 2.77/g (lg 2.4) +15%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.45/g (lg 1.26) +15% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.42) +1% · Midfielders 2.42/g (lg 2.4) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 47 in 18g | 20/10g (2·2·1·1·2·3·4·2·1·2) | 16/7g | 98/45g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' 20' 84' 67' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 32 in 17g | 17/10g (4·3·1·1·1·2·0·1·0·4) | 10/9g | 20/22g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 18 in 18g | 12/10g (1·0·0·1·2·2·2·1·0·3) | 0/4g | 19/22g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' 75' 64' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 16 in 17g | 13/10g (2·2·0·0·2·2·1·0·1·3) | 4/8g | 69/61g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 16 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 3/11g | 27/87g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 13 in 14g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·3·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 6/6g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 70' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 11 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 14/36g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 8 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 26/49g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 18/39g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 35/53g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/14g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 17/45g | 30% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 3/24g | 12% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | 3 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 4/12g | 13% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 14/45g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 11/70g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/21g | 10% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/52g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 7/51g | 4% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 23 in 18g | 11/10g (2·3·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·2) | 4/3g | 2/1g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 60% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·3·0·3·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 54% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 10 in 16g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 9 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.75 AI 59% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 6 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/10g | 3/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 3/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 4/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 5 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (0·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.81 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $23.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/10g | 1/12g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 17/43g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 2/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 32.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 38 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.92 | 69% | 30 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell | 28.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 27 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 24.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 25 ✗ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 23.5 | $1.86 | 48% | 24 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 15 ✓ |
| Alex Davies ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 80% | 14 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 26 ✗ |
| Bailey Humphrey | 16.5 | $1.93 | 59% | 10 ✓ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 25 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 23.5 | $1.89 | 51% | 23 ✓ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 71% | 23 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 20 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 23 ✗ |
| Sam Banks | 19.5 | $1.91 | 46% | 26 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 14.5 | $1.91 | 37% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)