AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 61.1 but the actual margin was 88 points. Geelong Cats led 59–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 88. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
94%
Port Adelaide
6%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Geelong Cats carry a 265-point ELO rating advantage (1685 vs 1420). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 61.1 points with a combined total of 205.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.03
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.3%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -59.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.3%
Total Points
Over 178.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 104.6 |
Port Adelaide | WWLLL | 74.6 |
Avg Conceded
77.2
Geelong Cats
92.2
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
27.4
Geelong Cats
-17.6
Port Adelaide
Disposals
352.2
Geelong Cats
325.8
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 61 points
Predicted total: 205 · Line: +61.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.02
Team Effectiveness
+0.51
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.