# Geelong Cats v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 153 – 65 Port Adelaide

_Geelong Cats run riot over Port Adelaide._

Half time: 59 – 29 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 94% / Port Adelaide 6% · GMHBA Stadium · Sun, 03 Aug, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Max Holmes (3' ×2 1st), Patrick Dangerfield (11' Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Cameron (25' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Jack Bowes (38' ×2), Gryan Miers (53'), Shannon Neale (70' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Brad Close (75'), Jack Martin (84' ×4), Tyson Stengle (79' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Oliver Dempsey (90' Tipped ⚡) · Port Adelaide: Joe Berry (14'), Ollie Lord (22' ×2), Will Lorenz (28'), Travis Boak (47'), Mitch Georgiades (77' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jed McEntee (81')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 94% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 61.1 predicted → 88 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Port Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 21, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 153–65 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 21 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-nine marks inside 50 to six. That's not a stat, that's a arrest warrant. Geelong Cats took the ball forward and simply caught it, over and over, on the way to a 153-65 demolition of Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium.

The scary part is how even it looked early. Quarter time had it locked at 23-23, and anyone glancing at the ladder before the bounce would have nodded along. Port Adelaide arrived rated stronger everywhere it matters on paper: midfield 1056 to 946, forwards 1063 to 1033, defence 1052 to 966, ruck 1022 to 930. Add a form line showing nearly four wins from five to Geelong's one-and-change, and the module numbers all pointed one way.

Then the game stopped resembling the module. Geelong ran out to 59-29 by half time and 116-37 by the three-quarter mark, and from there it was just Port Adelaide trying to find the scoreboard operator's phone number.

Strip away the stoppage stuff and this was won on the outside. Geelong finished with 409 disposals to 317 and an efficiency edge, 74.2% to 72.1%, meaning they didn't just have more of the ball, they did more with it. Sixty-nine inside 50s to 33 tells you how often it went forward, and 127 marks to 66 tells you how much of that ball was actually controlled rather than contested away.

Port Adelaide did win the fight for it. Hit-outs went 58-26 their way, and they laid more tackles too, 73 to 59, so the pressure and ruck craft were both there. Trouble is, none of it translated into scoreboard impact, because Geelong's 150 to 130 edge in contested possession and 69 to 56 in intercepts meant the ball kept coming back the other way regardless of who tapped it down. Winning the hit-out count while losing the intercept count by 13 is a losing trade every time.

Individually the story's written in that marks-inside-50 gap. Six marks inside forward 50 for the entire game is a number that belongs to a side that never got settled, and 29 for Geelong is a number that belongs to a side that barely stopped scoring once it found its groove after quarter time.

Alphr's model backed Geelong at 94% to win, and that call landed clean. The margin read was the one that missed, and missed badly: 61.1 points projected, 88 delivered. Three from three on the picks that mattered, but a reminder that even a well-supported favourite can blow well past the expected gap once the floodgates open.

Port Adelaide leave with the ruck and tackle counts to point to, and not much else. Geelong Cats leave with 153 points, a scoreline that got away from everyone who looked at it beforehand, and a version of dominance that started level and never looked like it again.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 23 | 36 | 57 | 37 | 153 |
| Port Adelaide | 23 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 65 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **409** | Disposals | 317 |
| **150** | Contested poss. | 130 |
| **37** | Clearances | 34 |
| **69** | Inside 50s | 33 |
| **127** | Marks | 66 |
| **29** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| 59 | Tackles | **73** |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **58** |
| **69** | Intercepts | 56 |
| **74.2%** | Disposal eff. | 72.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 61.1 but the actual margin was 88 points. Geelong Cats led 59–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 88. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.03 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 93.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -59.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 61 · Predicted total: 205

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 212 · 143 | 136 · 160 |
| Goal Assists | 6.5/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 98/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 15.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.9/g | 8.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68% | 67% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 66 · 47 | 36 · 59 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 142/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.3/g | 21.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70% | 67.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 21 | 31 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.2/g | 13.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.4% | 74.1% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.49/g (lg 1.26) +18% · Forwards 4.51/g (lg 4.45) +1% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.82/g (lg 3.61) +6% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0% · Forwards 4.3/g (lg 4.45) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 69 in 19g | 49/10g (7·6·5·0·6·4·4·1·5·11) | 47/18g | 112/42g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 99% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $5.55 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 57' 64' 75' 94' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 31 in 19g | 24/10g (1·5·1·0·4·1·3·5·0·4) | 3/3g | 24/16g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' 82' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 24 in 19g | 9/10g (2·1·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 18/21g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 24 in 17g | 16/10g (0·2·1·2·2·4·1·0·2·2) | 17/8g | 64/32g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' 88' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 23 in 17g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·2·0·2·0) | 18/22g | 73/69g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 20 in 16g | 12/10g (1·2·1·0·3·0·1·1·3·0) | 4/2g | 12/12g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 15 in 19g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 7/9g | 44/42g | 68% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 11 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 7/10g | 10/22g | 52% | — | 🏉 38' 83' |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 9 in 17g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 8/11g | 40/52g | 54% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 9 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 13/36g | 44% | — | 🏉 3' 93' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/8g | 1/9g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 20/94g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/13g | 25/55g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 2/11g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 10/50g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 3 in 7g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 5/9g | 6/7g | 58% | — | 🏉 84' 86' 87' 90' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/31g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/49g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/43g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 13/58g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/65g | 2% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 48 in 19g | 28/10g (1·3·1·7·1·5·4·3·2·1) | 9/7g | 2/2g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' 70' 72' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 18 in 18g | 8/10g (1·0·0·2·1·2·0·2·0·0) | 4/15g | 2/4g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 12 in 18g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 51% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 8 in 11g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 60% | — | 🏉 22' 93' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/19g | 2/5g | 26% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/7g | 4/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jed McEntee | FWD | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 56% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Jackson | FWD | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Will Lorenz | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Williams | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.80 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Mani Liddy | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 30.5 | $1.88 | 56% | 30 ✓ |
| Max Holmes | 27.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 35 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 30 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart | 20.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 69% | 17 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 26 ✗ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 17.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 14 ✓ |
| Jeremy Cameron ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.92 | 78% | 8 ✓ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 26.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 10 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines | 24.5 | $2.00 | 49% | 32 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 20 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 18.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 14 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 18.5 | $1.79 | 50% | 24 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 24 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)