AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 61.1 but the actual margin was 88 points. Geelong Cats led 59–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 88. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
94%
Port Adelaide
6%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Geelong Cats counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 56-point ELO rating advantage (1542 vs 1486). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 61.1 points with a combined total of 205.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.03
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.3%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -59.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.3%
Total Points
Over 178.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W L L L L | 102.2 |
Port Adelaide | W W W W L | 84.9 |
Avg Conceded
81.8
Geelong Cats
73.9
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
26.8
Geelong Cats
4.8
Port Adelaide
Disposals
350.5
Geelong Cats
362.5
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
56.2
Geelong Cats
45.9
Port Adelaide
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1542 vs 1486), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.03).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 61 points
Predicted total: 205 · Line: +61.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.02
Team Effectiveness
+0.51
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.