AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 71% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Fremantle by 23.4 vs the actual margin of 27 points. Total score prediction of 155 was close to the actual 161, within 6 points. Fremantle trailed 25–49 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 94–67. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
71%
Carlton
29%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Fremantle counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1568 vs 1514). The margin model predicts Fremantle by 23.4 points with a combined total of 155.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.10
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.6%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -37.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.6%
Total Points
Over 151.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W L L L L | 92.3 |
Carlton | W L L L L | 106.0 |
Avg Conceded
66.6
Fremantle
82.2
Carlton
Avg Margin
-0.1
Fremantle
13.4
Carlton
Disposals
377.8
Fremantle
342.3
Carlton
Inside 50s
47.5
Fremantle
43.2
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1568 vs 1514), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.10).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Fremantle predicted to win by 23 points
Predicted total: 155 · Line: +23.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.45
Team Effectiveness
-0.36
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.