# Fremantle v Carlton — AFL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 94 – 67 Carlton

_Fremantle rally to stun Carlton from 24 down._

Half time: 25 – 49 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 71% / Carlton 29% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 03 Aug, 05:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Oscar McDonald (23'), Josh Treacy (33' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (41' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (76' Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (82' Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (94' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (35m 11s)Sam Switkowski (67'), Isaiah Dudley (80' ×2) · Carlton: Blake Acres (9' 1st), Jesse Motlop (17'), Francis Evans (19' ×2), Harry OFarrell (45'), Lachie Fogarty (50'), Zac Williams (59'), Harry McKay (89' Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (86')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 71% | Won |
| Carlton | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 23.4 predicted → 27 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 21, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 94–67 Carlton in AFL Round 21 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton did most things right for three quarters. They moved the ball better than Fremantle all night, finishing with 366 disposals to 315 and an efficiency edge of 67.1 per cent to 65.8. They marked it cleaner too, 66 to 53, and were sharper inside forward 50 with 10 marks there to Fremantle's 6. By three-quarter time they'd built a lead. It wasn't enough. Fremantle ran over the top of them after the last change to win 94-67 at Optus Stadium.

The scoreboard shows how that lead evaporated. Carlton led 30-12 at quarter time and stretched it to 49-25 at half time, still up 58-50 at three-quarter time. Then the final term flipped everything: Fremantle finished the game 94-67, meaning the last quarter alone was 44 points to 9 in their favour. That's not a side fading late, that's a complete reversal, and it happened inside 30 minutes of footy.

The clue was sitting in the clearance and contested possession numbers the whole time. Fremantle won clearances 50-43 and contested ball 164-153. Carlton had the cleaner hands in general play, but Fremantle kept winning first use of the footy at the source, and eventually that grunt work told on the scoreboard. Tackles were basically even, 88 to 87, so it wasn't a pressure differential that flipped it. It was who controlled the contest, and for the last quarter that was entirely Fremantle.

Carlton's forward entries weren't the issue either. They actually had more inside 50s, 46 to 44, and more hitouts, 51 to 42. On paper that should have counted for something, especially with 10 marks inside 50 to Fremantle's 6. But volume without conversion in that final term left them exposed once Fremantle's clearance work turned into scoreboard pressure. Intercepts were close, 75 to 73 in Fremantle's favour, which suggests Carlton's ball use forward of centre kept handing possession straight back.

The positional ratings going in had Carlton rated stronger everywhere: midfield 1116 to 1000, forwards 1096 to 1055, defence 1127 to 966, ruck 1065 to 1043. On paper this was meant to be Carlton's game to control, and for three quarters it was. Their defence rating in particular looked like a mismatch in their favour, and it held up right until it mattered most.

Alphr's model had this one covered before a ball was bounced. It gave Fremantle a 71 per cent chance to win, predicted them by 23.4 points, and tipped a combined score of 155. The actual margin was 27, the actual total 161. All three numbers landed close enough to call it a clean sweep for the model, even with Carlton's stat sheet reading like a written for the away side. Recent form pointed to a similar theme: Fremantle had been outscoring opponents on the disposal count over their last five games while conceding fewer points on average, a pattern that repeated itself here once the final quarter arrived.

Carlton will look at the disposal count, the marking numbers and the inside 50 tally and wonder how they lost by 27. The answer is in the clearance column and in a final quarter where Fremantle simply took the game off them.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 12 | 13 | 25 | 44 | 94 |
| Carlton | 30 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 67 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 315 | Disposals | **366** |
| **164** | Contested poss. | 153 |
| **50** | Clearances | 43 |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **46** |
| 53 | Marks | **66** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| 87 | Tackles | **88** |
| 42 | Hit-outs | **51** |
| **75** | Intercepts | 73 |
| 65.8% | Disposal eff. | **67.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 71% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Fremantle by 23.4 vs the actual margin of 27 points. Total score prediction of 155 was close to the actual 161, within 6 points. Fremantle trailed 25–49 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 94–67. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.10 (edge -19.6%) — model probability 71.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -37.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 151.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 23 · Predicted total: 155

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 152 · 142 | 124 · 148 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 76/g | 85/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.2/g | 15.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.3/g | 7.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.7% | 66% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 72 · 54 | 50 · 55 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 158/g | 163/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.5/g | 24.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 68.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 17 | 33 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.8/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.2% | 74.8% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.59/g (lg 0.51) +16% · Forwards 4.57/g (lg 4.45) +3% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.26) -1%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.42/g (lg 2.36) +3% · Key Forwards 3.48/g (lg 3.61) -4% · Forwards 4.11/g (lg 4.45) -8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 32 in 19g | 10/10g (1·0·0·0·3·3·2·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 58/40g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' 57' 72' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 26 in 19g | 14/10g (3·1·1·0·2·0·1·2·0·4) | 3/6g | 65/54g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 25 in 19g | 12/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·2·3) | 2/2g | 54/36g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 94' 97' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 25 in 15g | 20/10g (1·1·3·3·1·0·1·1·6·3) | 0/0g | 16/14g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' 93' 100' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 23 in 18g | 14/10g (3·1·3·1·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 11/10g | 33/20g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 75% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 19 in 19g | 10/10g (1·4·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 11/11g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 15 in 16g | 12/10g (0·1·0·2·3·2·2·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 34/39g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 11 in 13g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/8g | 70% | — | 🏉 80' 89' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 10 in 13g | 10/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·1·3·0·1) | 7/7g | 38/52g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 7 in 6g | 10/10g (2·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·3) | 0/4g | 14/42g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 31/86g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 6 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 23/64g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/8g | 23/62g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 28/59g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/19g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/9g | 12% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 12/33g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/50g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 21/65g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/35g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/87g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/21g | 5% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 18 in 15g | 15/10g (4·1·2·2·1·1·3·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/7g | 50% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 14 in 19g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 54% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 13 in 12g | 7/10g (1·2·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 5/5g | 60% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 12 in 19g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/12g | 6/10g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 10 in 8g | 14/10g (1·3·1·0·3·0·3·2·0·1) | 19/8g | 14/7g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 89' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (0·2·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/5g | 26% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Will White | FWD | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (1·3·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 57% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 6 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | 5 in 5g | 7/7g (1·1·0·1·0·4·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 57% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/5g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 8/27g | 36% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 19' 24' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 2/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Harry O'Farrell | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/9g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 29.5 | $1.89 | 59% | 19 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 23 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 24.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 30 ✗ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 2 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.88 | 49% | 17 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 19.5 | $1.78 | 55% | 16 ✓ |
| Jaeger O'Meara | 18.5 | $1.93 | 39% | 15 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | 17.5 | $1.93 | 43% | 10 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | 24.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 36 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 23.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 36 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands | 18.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 19 ✗ |
| Adam Saad | 18.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Zac Williams ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.78 | 69% | 18 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 16.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 23 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)