# Collingwood v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 65 – 92 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions run down Collingwood._

Half time: 45 – 46 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 42% / Brisbane Lions 58% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Lachie Schultz (3' 1st), Nick Daicos (19'), Tim Membrey (40' Tipped ⚡), Jordan de Goey (47' Tipped ⚡), Steele Sidebottom (50' ×2), Jamie Elliott (52' Tipped ⚡), Brody Mihocek (73' Tipped ⚡), Bobby Hill (74') · Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris (9' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilmot (17'), Henry Smith (23' ×3), Cam Rayner (80' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (96' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 58% | Won |
| Collingwood | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.9 predicted → 27 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 65–92 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 21 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions led by 20 points at quarter time, then watched Collingwood claw the whole thing back to within a point by half time. Then the third quarter happened, and the game was over as a contest from there.

Final score: Brisbane Lions 92, Collingwood 65. But the story is in how that scoreline actually got built. Brisbane went out to 34-14 in the first term, comfortable and controlled. Collingwood responded with a real say in the second, outscoring them 31-12 to trail by just one at the main break, 46-45. For a moment it looked like Collingwood's price as favourites, and their higher ratings across midfield, forwards and ruck, might actually mean something.

Then Brisbane took the third quarter 26-8. That's the passage that decided it. Collingwood went from a one-point game to a 19-point deficit inside thirty minutes of footy, and never got the margin back under two goals again. The last quarter was a formality by comparison, Brisbane adding 20 to Collingwood's 12 to push the final gap out to 27.

The disposal count tells you why. Brisbane finished with 376 to Collingwood's 291, and won clearances 51 to 34. Whatever edge Collingwood's midfield rating carried into the day, 1089 to Brisbane's 1036, it didn't show up where it counted. Brisbane simply had the ball more, used it better at 66.9% efficiency to Collingwood's 63.0%, and turned that into 139 contested possessions against 117.

Collingwood weren't overrun everywhere. They won the hit-out count 46-40 and edged tackles 66-65, so there was some genuine defensive effort and ruck presence in there. But marks told a different story, Brisbane 83 to 67, and marks inside 50 went their way too, 13 to 12. When a side is taking that much uncontested ball in the right areas, the scoreboard follows, and it did.

Form lines had flagged this as tighter than it turned out. Brisbane came in having won just 1.16 of their last five on average against Collingwood's 3.4, and conceding 70.2 points a game compared to Collingwood's 96.9 given up. On paper Collingwood had the meaner defence over the sample. On the day, that didn't hold once the third term got away from them.

Alphr's model backed Brisbane Lions at 58% to win, and got that right.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 14 | 31 | 8 | 12 | 65 |
| Brisbane Lions | 34 | 12 | 26 | 20 | 92 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 291 | Disposals | **376** |
| 117 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| 34 | Clearances | **51** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **48** |
| 67 | Marks | **83** |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| **66** | Tackles | 65 |
| **46** | Hit-outs | 40 |
| 64 | Intercepts | **66** |
| 63.0% | Disposal eff. | **66.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.9 but the actual margin was 27 points. Total score prediction of 161 was close to the actual 157, within 4 points. Brisbane Lions led 45–46 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 27. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 165.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.68 (edge +20.9%) — model probability 58.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 8 · Predicted total: 161

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 193 · 115 | 167 · 157 |
| Goal Assists | 5.4/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.8/g | 18.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.7/g | 9.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 65.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 41 · 53 | 58 · 45 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 160/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.9/g | 25.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 68.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 17 | 19 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 116/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.7/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 80.1% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.53/g (lg 4.42) +2% · Key Forwards 3.35/g (lg 3.61) -7% · Midfielders 2.07/g (lg 2.4) -14%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.26) -6% · Forwards 3.94/g (lg 4.42) -11% · Key Forwards 3.16/g (lg 3.61) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 47 in 19g | 25/10g (1·5·5·1·2·1·4·3·2·1) | 19/12g | 211/130g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 32 in 16g | 21/10g (4·1·2·4·1·1·2·2·2·2) | 22/10g | 150/89g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 26 in 17g | 16/10g (0·1·3·1·1·2·2·2·2·2) | 16/10g | 53/26g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 19 in 13g | 14/10g (0·3·2·1·1·3·1·1·1·1) | 14/8g | 52/45g | 84% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 17 in 14g | 13/10g (1·3·0·2·2·0·4·0·0·1) | 7/4g | 41/36g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 70% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 14 in 19g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·3) | 6/6g | 32/55g | 62% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 12 in 16g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 5/16g | 106/116g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 7/17g | 102/178g | 28% | — | 🏉 50' 80' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 5/8g | 31/27g | 66% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 50/150g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 7 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·2·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 27/54g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/19g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 7/26g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 38/66g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 5 in 5g | 11/10g (2·0·1·1·2·0·2·2·1·0) | 24/13g | 118/110g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.59 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 14/135g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/26g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/10g | 30/83g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 80/180g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Oleg Markov | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/35g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Dean | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 39/109g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/72g | 4% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 34 in 18g | 21/10g (3·2·2·0·5·5·1·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 8/5g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 11' 60' 71' 77' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 27 in 18g | 12/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·0·5·1·1) | 12/11g | 15/15g | 76% | — | 🏉 96' 87' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 24 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 15/12g | 32/20g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 23 in 19g | 15/10g (0·2·1·2·1·3·0·2·1·3) | 14/11g | 11/17g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' 76' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 21 in 18g | 10/10g (1·1·4·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/11g | 14/13g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 21 in 17g | 13/10g (0·3·1·2·0·0·3·3·1·0) | 29/16g | 40/27g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 10 in 19g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 9/14g | 14/19g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 19g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·3·0) | 0/3g | 6/7g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 5/13g | 5/18g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 11/18g | 11/30g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·0·4·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/16g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 7/18g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/11g | 10% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 14/19g | 15/23g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/21g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Henry Smith | RUC | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 23' 26' 43' |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/16g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 32.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 29 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 28.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 29 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 23.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 22 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 20.5 | $1.92 | 47% | 21 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.92 | 65% | 9 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.94 | 48% | 15 ✓ |
| Brayden Maynard | 17.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 15 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 12 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 26.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 36 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 30 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 26.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 34 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 25.5 | $1.84 | 64% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 24.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 31 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 22 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 20.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 18.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 21 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)