AI Game Review
Adelaide Crows defied the model's 53% prediction for Hawthorn — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 188 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 157. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
47%
Hawthorn
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Hawthorn a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Adelaide Crows are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Hawthorn counter with Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Adelaide Crows carry a 139-point ELO rating advantage (1823 vs 1684). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 3.7 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @2.68
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.9%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -12.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.9%
Total Points
Under 162.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | WWWWW | 112.2 |
Hawthorn | WWWWL | 96.0 |
Avg Conceded
62.0
Adelaide Crows
65.2
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
50.2
Adelaide Crows
30.8
Hawthorn
Disposals
358.4
Adelaide Crows
369.0
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Adelaide Crows
50.0
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: -3.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.05
Team Effectiveness
-0.15
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.