AI Game Review
Adelaide Crows defied the model's 53% prediction for Hawthorn, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 188 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 157. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
47%
Hawthorn
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Hawthorn a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Adelaide Crows are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Midfield ELO, Forward Line ELO and Venue Advantage, but Hawthorn counter with ELO Difference and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 3.7 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @2.68
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.9%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -12.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.9%
Total Points
Under 162.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W L L L | 109.6 |
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 103.9 |
Avg Conceded
72.7
Adelaide Crows
81.6
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
1.1
Adelaide Crows
9.3
Hawthorn
Disposals
378.6
Adelaide Crows
335.0
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
56.3
Adelaide Crows
43.5
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1542 vs 1525), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.60).
The model sides with ELO, Hawthorn predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: -3.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.05
Team Effectiveness
-0.15
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.