# Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn — AFL Round 21 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 101 – 87 Hawthorn

_Adelaide Crows pick apart Hawthorn._

Half time: 49 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 47% / Hawthorn 53% · Adelaide Oval · Fri, 01 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Darcy Fogarty (30' Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (38' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (39' ×2), Taylor Walker (64' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (69'), Jake Soligo (72'), Izak Rankine (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (9' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Dylan Moore (11'), Nick Watson (21'), Mabior Chol (25' Tipped ⚡), Conor Nash (72'), Jack Ginnivan (80' ×2), Will Day (83'), Massimo DAmbrosio (86'), Mitch Lewis (90' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 53% | Lost |
| Adelaide Crows | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.7 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 21 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 101–87 Hawthorn in AFL Round 21 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Final score: Adelaide Crows 101, Hawthorn 87. Straightforward on the ledger. Except at three-quarter time it read Hawthorn 71, Adelaide Crows 63, and for three quarters of the afternoon this had the shape of a Hawthorn win, not an Adelaide one.

Break it down by quarter and the shape gets even stranger. Hawthorn opened at a gallop, up 33-7 at the first change, a 26-point margin that in most games just gets managed home from there. Adelaide had other ideas. They ran up 42 points to nil in the second term to lead 49-33 at half time, a complete reversal in twenty minutes. Hawthorn hit straight back, piling on 38 points in the third quarter to Adelaide's 14 and retaking the lead, 71-63, heading into the final change. Then Adelaide finished the job, outscoring Hawthorn 38 to 16 in the last to win by 14. Four quarters, three genuine swings. Nobody controlled this from start to finish.

The disposal count says Hawthorn were rarely far off the pace and usually ahead of it: 355 to Adelaide's 319, with cleaner ball use too, 75.4% efficiency against Adelaide's 69.3%. Hawthorn also won the clearance battle, 48 to 39, which tracks with how the two sides were rated coming in. Hawthorn's ruck (1040 to Adelaide's 1008) and defence (1031 to 990) were both rated the stronger unit, and on the stoppage numbers alone that read held up.

Adelaide won the game somewhere else. Fifty-five inside 50s to 49, 78 marks to 67, and the number that probably explains the result better than any other: 69 intercepts to 58. Adelaide's forward line and back six turned Hawthorn over often enough to outweigh getting beaten around the middle. It fits the pre-season picture too: Adelaide's midfield rating (1076 to 1007) was the clearest positional edge either side carried into the match, and their recent form had them averaging 56.3 inside 50s a game to Hawthorn's 43.5.

Form heading in actually favoured Hawthorn in the more conventional sense. They'd averaged 3.27 wins from their last five outings to Adelaide's 1.78, with a healthier average margin, 9.26 points to Adelaide's 1.13. Adelaide had the higher scoring average of the two, 109.6 to 103.9, but also conceded less, 72.7 to 81.6.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 7 | 42 | 14 | 38 | 101 |
| Hawthorn | 33 | 0 | 38 | 16 | 87 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Disposals | **355** |
| **146** | Contested poss. | 135 |
| 39 | Clearances | **48** |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| **78** | Marks | 67 |
| **11** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| 58 | Tackles | **64** |
| 45 | Hit-outs | **48** |
| **69** | Intercepts | 58 |
| 69.3% | Disposal eff. | **75.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Adelaide Crows defied the model's 53% prediction for Hawthorn, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 188 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 157. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $2.68 (edge +15.9%) — model probability 53.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 4 · Predicted total: 157

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 200 · 125 | 177 · 134 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.4/g | 17.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9/g | 9.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.9% | 66.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 76 · 44 | 37 · 48 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.7/g | 22.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.1/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 69.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 17 | 32 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.2/g | 13.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.39/g (lg 1.27) +9% · Midfielders 2.34/g (lg 2.39) -2% · Key Forwards 3.43/g (lg 3.61) -5%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.35/g (lg 1.27) +6% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.39) -3% · Forwards 4.17/g (lg 4.42) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 44 in 19g | 21/10g (0·2·2·1·0·5·0·6·2·3) | 9/5g | 54/42g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 48' 58' 91' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 35 in 18g | 14/10g (4·1·2·0·0·1·2·3·0·1) | 11/8g | 112/69g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 31 in 19g | 15/10g (0·1·3·3·2·0·2·0·1·3) | 7/11g | 64/72g | 78% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 31 in 18g | 14/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·2·2·2·3) | 31/18g | 282/126g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' 88' 92' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 26 in 19g | 14/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·5·1·2·1) | 8/6g | 64/34g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 83' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 15 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 4/9g | 15/23g | 42% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 14 in 19g | 9/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 1/8g | 27/52g | 48% | — | 🏉 39' 44' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 11 in 19g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/5g | 19/45g | 34% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 10 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 7/16g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 5/18g | 30% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 5/11g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/5g | 7/39g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 9/77g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 31/115g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 18/65g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/45g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (2·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 6/15g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Chayce Jones | DEF | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 15/52g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | no games | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/27g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/35g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 45 in 16g | 25/10g (3·0·2·1·2·7·3·1·3·3) | 21/15g | 37/17g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 13' 78' 82' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 32 in 17g | 19/10g (2·2·3·0·0·4·1·5·2·0) | 10/7g | 13/9g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $16.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 27 in 18g | 15/10g (2·3·0·1·0·3·2·1·1·2) | 2/2g | 5/4g | 74% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 21 in 18g | 14/10g (2·1·3·2·0·2·1·1·1·1) | 6/6g | 9/8g | 78% | — | 🏉 80' 96' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 16 in 17g | 11/10g (0·3·0·1·2·2·1·1·0·1) | 6/5g | 4/6g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 16 in 19g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 7/7g | 8/9g | 68% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 19g | 4/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 9/15g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 6/7g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 7 in 4g | 19/10g (0·3·3·2·3·1·0·3·2·2) | 3/2g | 4/3g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 8/9g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·3·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 2/7g | 30% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 4/16g | 17/49g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/8g | 12% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 4/11g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 22/70g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 2 in 2g | 16/10g (4·2·2·1·1·1·1·2·0·2) | 11/4g | 11/5g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 22.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 21 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.75 | 69% | 15 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 73% | 10 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 18.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 20 ✗ |
| Daniel Curtin ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 20 ✗ |
| Ben Keays | 17.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine | 17.5 | $1.76 | 58% | 16 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 16.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 19 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.74 | 59% | 23 ✗ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 78% | 19 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 22 ✗ |
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 19 ✓ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.84 | 70% | 18 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 20.5 | $1.78 | 65% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 20.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)