AI Game Review
Collingwood defied the model's 78% prediction for Western Bulldogs — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 146 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 169. Collingwood trailed 43–38 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 70–76. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
78%
Collingwood
22%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. Collingwood are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including Midfield ELO, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO — but Western Bulldogs counter with ELO Difference and Scoring Form which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 2.1 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @3.20
Lost ✗
Edge
+47.2%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +14.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+47.2%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | WWWLL | 96.6 |
Collingwood | WWWLL | 91.2 |
Avg Conceded
82.0
Western Bulldogs
74.6
Collingwood
Avg Margin
14.6
Western Bulldogs
16.6
Collingwood
Disposals
360.4
Western Bulldogs
361.6
Collingwood
Inside 50s
50.0
Western Bulldogs
50.0
Collingwood
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1619 vs 1612), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.45).
The model sides with ELO — Western Bulldogs predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
78%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +2.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
-0.17
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.