AI Game Review
Collingwood defied the model's 78% prediction for Western Bulldogs, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 146 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 169. Collingwood trailed 43–38 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 70–76. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
78%
Collingwood
22%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 58-point ELO rating advantage (1592 vs 1534). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 2.1 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @3.20
Lost ✗
Edge
+47.2%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +14.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+47.2%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W W L L | 84.5 |
Collingwood | W W W W L | 89.5 |
Avg Conceded
84.8
Western Bulldogs
97.5
Collingwood
Avg Margin
0.2
Western Bulldogs
-2.7
Collingwood
Disposals
367.3
Western Bulldogs
352.2
Collingwood
Inside 50s
45.3
Western Bulldogs
55.9
Collingwood
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1592 vs 1534), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.45).
The model sides with ELO, Western Bulldogs predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
78%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +2.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
-0.17
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.