# Western Bulldogs v Collingwood — AFL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 70 – 76 Collingwood

_Collingwood roar back to stun Western Bulldogs._

Half time: 43 – 38 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 78% / Collingwood 22% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Lachlan McNeil (12' 1st), Laitham Vandermeer (14'), Sam Darcy (36' ×3 Tipped ⚡), James Harmes (49'), Rhylee West (82' Tipped ⚡), Tom Liberatore (72'), Joel Freijah (81') · Collingwood: Daniel McStay (21' Tipped ⚡), Lachie Schultz (27' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bobby Hill (34' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Dan Houston (44'), Beau McCreery (66'), Steele Sidebottom (86' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 78% | Lost |
| Collingwood | 22% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 70–76 Collingwood in AFL Round 2 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood 76, Western Bulldogs 70 at the MCG, and for three quarters of it the scoreboard said the wrong team was going to win. The Bulldogs led at every change bar the last one. Then Collingwood turned a five-point deficit into an eight-point lead in a single term and never gave it back.

The Bulldogs opened well, up 22-16 at quarter time. They were still ahead 43-38 at half time, and on paper that made sense. They went into the game rated higher in the ruck, 1091 to 999, higher at forward, 1128 to 1076, and slightly ahead in the midfield too. The model had them favourites by 2.1 points, giving them a 78% chance of winning. Nothing in the first half argued with that.

The third quarter flipped it. Collingwood outscored the Bulldogs 21-8 in that term, turning a five-point deficit at half time into an eight-point lead at three-quarter time, 59-51. That's the score that decided the game. The Bulldogs hadn't been blown off the park before that point, they'd been in front, and then for 30 minutes Collingwood simply took over.

The Bulldogs did fight back. They outscored Collingwood 19-17 in the final quarter, a genuine push, but the hole from the third term was too deep to climb out of. Six points was the final margin, and it traced straight back to that third-quarter stretch.

The numbers underneath explain how it happened. Collingwood won contested possession 140 to 129, laid more tackles, 64 to 54, and won the intercept count 65 to 57. They went inside 50 fifty times to the Bulldogs' 43.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 22 | 21 | 8 | 19 | 70 |
| Collingwood | 16 | 22 | 21 | 17 | 76 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 352 | Disposals | **364** |
| 129 | Contested poss. | **140** |
| 35 | Clearances | **36** |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **50** |
| 69 | Marks | **77** |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 54 | Tackles | **64** |
| 37 | Hit-outs | **38** |
| 57 | Intercepts | **65** |
| **72.1%** | Disposal eff. | 67.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Collingwood defied the model's 78% prediction for Western Bulldogs, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 146 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 169. Collingwood trailed 43–38 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 70–76. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $3.20 (edge +47.2%) — model probability 78.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +47.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 2 · Predicted total: 169

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 3 in 1g | 16/10g (2·0·2·0·2·0·2·2·3·3) | 10/6g | 27/14g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 3 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·3) | 3/3g | 4/6g | 32% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/7g | 5/13g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 3/4g | 1/5g | 34% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (0·0·2·1·1·1·2·2·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/12g | 34% | — | — |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·4·2·1·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 49/81g | 34% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 17% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 1 in 1g | 16/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·7·2·1·1) | 3/1g | 5/3g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 39' 71' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 3/12g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Gallagher | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 14/36g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Oskar Baker | FWD | no games | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/7g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 0 in 1g | 12/10g (4·0·2·4·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/4g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.60 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/11g | 12/15g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Duryea | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 5/64g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 6/11g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 8/19g | 24% | — | 🏉 72' |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 5 in 2g | 20/10g (1·0·5·2·1·3·1·2·1·4) | 16/10g | 42/17g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 4 in 2g | 12/10g (1·2·1·1·1·1·0·1·2·2) | 15/6g | 190/120g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 72% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 3 in 2g | 12/10g (0·0·2·2·1·2·0·2·1·2) | 1/4g | 45/38g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' 64' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 3 in 2g | 16/10g (1·2·2·1·3·1·1·2·0·3) | 9/9g | 33/29g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/10g | 12/127g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 1 in 2g | 11/10g (4·1·0·2·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 8/8g | 25/21g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' 65' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·2·0·1) | 4/3g | 23/45g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 3/3g | 25/45g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/12g | 94/169g | 22% | — | 🏉 86' 87' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 37/47g | 42% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 3/17g | 22% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 35/56g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/11g | 39/101g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/16g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/62g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (3·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 48/140g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 56/154g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | no games | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·2·2·0·1·1·2) | 8/10g | 115/106g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 30/73g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 7/8g | 79/80g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Reef McInnes | DEF | 0 in 2g | 10/10g (1·1·1·3·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 11/14g | 59% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 79/171g | 28% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.80 | 80% | 34 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.82 | 88% | 27 ✓ |
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.77 | 76% | 31 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.77 | 88% | 23 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 20.5 | $1.77 | 61% | 21 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 16 ✓ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 19.5 | $1.85 | 58% | 8 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams | 17.5 | $1.96 | 59% | 20 ✗ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 29.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 39 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos | 26.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 25 ✓ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.78 | 73% | 15 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 22.5 | $1.79 | 54% | 22 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 21.5 | $1.77 | 61% | 21 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 20.5 | $1.77 | 50% | 26 ✗ |
| Harry Perryman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.84 | 65% | 12 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey | 19.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)