AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting St Kilda by 4.6 vs the actual margin of 7 points. The game's 189 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 172. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
66%
Geelong Cats
34%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Geelong Cats. The model sees St Kilda ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 4.6 points with a combined total of 172.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @3.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+37.1%
Line / Spread
St Kilda +20.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+37.1%
Total Points
Under 173.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | W W W L L | 74.4 |
Geelong Cats | W W W L L | 96.0 |
Avg Conceded
66.1
St Kilda
88.7
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
20.0
St Kilda
0.6
Geelong Cats
Disposals
354.8
St Kilda
379.2
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
42.9
St Kilda
43.6
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
St Kilda predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 172 · Line: +4.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.17
Team Effectiveness
+0.33
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.