# St Kilda v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 98 – 91 Geelong Cats

_St Kilda hold off a gallant Geelong Cats._

Half time: 65 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 66% / Geelong Cats 34% · Marvel Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Mitch Owens (5' ×2 1st), Jack Higgins (17' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Lance Collard (24' ×2), Jack Sinclair (26'), Mason Wood (29' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Isaac Keeler (68' Tipped ⚡), Marcus Windhager (76') · Geelong Cats: Tyson Stengle (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (33' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mark Blicavs (43'), Brad Close (59'), Max Holmes (61'), Jeremy Cameron (74' Tipped ⚡), Ted Clohesy (77' ×2), Mitch Knevitt (78'), Oliver Dempsey (68' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 66% | Won |
| Geelong Cats | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.6 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 98–91 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 2 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats did plenty of things a team usually wins with. They won the hit-outs, 43 to 36. They won the intercepts, 69 to 64. They even won the contested footy, 145 possessions to 138. None of it was enough on the day.

St Kilda got out to 37 points in the first quarter while Geelong could only manage 10, and that gap effectively decided the match. Final score: St Kilda 98, Geelong Cats 91. A seven-point margin on the board, built almost entirely in that opening term.

Because Geelong didn't just roll over. St Kilda led 65-36 at half time, then pushed the margin to 90-63 by three-quarter time. Geelong's largest single dent came in the last quarter, closing from 27 points down to 7, but by then the deficit from that first term was too much to fully claw back.

The disposal count tells you why St Kilda were never really under threat until that final push. They finished with 389 disposals to Geelong's 321, and did more with them too, hitting targets at 74.6% compared to Geelong's 69.7%. That's a big gap in a code where turnovers get punished quickly.

St Kilda also won the clearances, 44 to 37, which is usually the number that decides who's dictating terms around the contest. Geelong actually won the contested possession count, 145 to 138, and the hit-outs, 43 to 36, which suggests their engine room wasn't the problem. It was what happened after the ball got loose.

Inside 50 is where it really showed. St Kilda had 54 inside 50s to Geelong's 52, next to nothing in it, but they made theirs count. Fifteen marks inside 50 to Geelong's ten meant more clean chances in the forward line, and marks overall told a similar story: 105 to 81. St Kilda were taking the ball cleanly and controlling territory even when Geelong were finding it at the coalface.

Tackle pressure was in St Kilda's favour too, 88 to 75, which lines up with a side that were happy to sit on a lead and make Geelong work for everything in the second half. Geelong's intercept number, 69 to 64, hints at a team that was reading the ball better late and creating opportunities. It just didn't fully translate to scoreboard pressure until that final term fightback.

Positional ratings had this about as even as it gets in midfield, 925 to 924 in Geelong's favour, but St Kilda held clear edges in the forward line (993 to 920) and defence (1007 to 983). That gap in scoring craft and defensive structure looks like exactly what showed up on the day: Geelong competing hard around the ball without the finishing touch to match.

Alphr's model had St Kilda winning by 4.6 points at 66% probability, with a combined total of 172. The final margin was 7, tight enough to call the model sharp, though the actual scoring, 189 points between the two sides, ran 17 points hotter than tipped. St Kilda also covered the 20.5-point line comfortably. Geelong made a match of it in patches, especially late, but the first-quarter hole was the difference.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 37 | 28 | 25 | 8 | 98 |
| Geelong Cats | 10 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 91 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **389** | Disposals | 321 |
| 138 | Contested poss. | **145** |
| **44** | Clearances | 37 |
| **54** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| **105** | Marks | 81 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **88** | Tackles | 75 |
| 36 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| 64 | Intercepts | **69** |
| **74.6%** | Disposal eff. | 69.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting St Kilda by 4.6 vs the actual margin of 7 points. The game's 189 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 172. The model went 2/3 on this match. St Kilda covered the 20.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $3.50 (edge +37.1%) — model probability 65.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +20.5 @ $1.91 (edge +37.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 5 · Predicted total: 172

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 2 in 1g | 15/10g (1·3·0·1·2·0·1·3·2·2) | 9/10g | 71/52g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 38' 52' 70' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 2 in 1g | 12/10g (1·1·2·3·0·0·0·1·2·2) | 7/10g | 71/69g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 47' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/21g | 17/70g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 4/37g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 19/18g | 61% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/65g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 4/2g | 9/13g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 10/52g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.90 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 27/123g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 35/96g | 20% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·3·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/13g | 36/86g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 3/96g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 24' 41' |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/33g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/27g | 6% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | no games | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 3/4g | 31/31g | 54% | — | 🏉 5' 92' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 0 in 1g | 13/10g (3·2·0·0·1·2·3·1·1·0) | 5/10g | 40/66g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 4/33g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 10/43g | 16% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 4 in 1g | 35/10g (3·1·2·6·1·3·9·4·2·4) | 39/16g | 57/22g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 3 in 1g | 19/10g (1·1·2·1·1·1·4·1·4·3) | 4/4g | 7/8g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 3 in 1g | 18/10g (2·1·3·1·0·2·2·4·0·3) | 6/7g | 5/6g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 87' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 2 in 1g | 11/10g (1·1·3·0·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 4/2g | 1/1g | 61% | — | 🏉 68' 77' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 2 in 1g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 11/15g | 32/25g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 4/6g | 62% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·3·2·1) | 2/7g | 3/7g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/6g | 3/13g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 1 in 1g | 14/10g (2·2·1·1·2·1·2·2·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 81% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' 79' |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 2/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 9/29g | 30% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Knevitt | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 2/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ted Clohesy | FWD | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 77' 73' |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 91% | 35 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 25 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 29 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 24.5 | $2.00 | 56% | 22 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.85 | 49% | 19 ✗ |
| Mason Wood | 18.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.96 | 80% | 17 ✓ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.70 | 73% | 19 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart | 24.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 2 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 84% | 22 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 75% | 21 ✓ |
| Sam De Koning ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 84% | 16 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.94 | 64% | 20 ✗ |
| Jack Bowes | 18.5 | $1.79 | 56% | 10 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)