AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 99% probability. The predicted margin of 66.4 was reasonable against the actual 72-point result. Port Adelaide led 89–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 72. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
99%
Richmond
1%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide are clear favourites here at 99%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Port Adelaide carry a 80-point ELO rating advantage (1556 vs 1477). Recent form favours Richmond with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 66.4 points with a combined total of 200.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.12
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.3%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.3%
Total Points
Over 177.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W L L L | 107.2 |
Richmond | W W W L L | 78.3 |
Avg Conceded
92.4
Port Adelaide
68.8
Richmond
Avg Margin
-4.8
Port Adelaide
27.7
Richmond
Disposals
343.9
Port Adelaide
361.4
Richmond
Inside 50s
43.6
Port Adelaide
49.5
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
99%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 66 points
Predicted total: 200 · Line: +66.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.48
Team Effectiveness
+0.84
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.