# Port Adelaide v Richmond — AFL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 140 – 68 Richmond

_Port Adelaide run riot over Richmond._

Half time: 89 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 99% / Richmond 1% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 22 Mar, 04:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Ollie Wines (5' 1st), Logan Evans (8'), Willie Rioli (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Georgiades (16' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jase Burgoyne (28' ×2), Joe Berry (38'), Sam Powell-Pepper (41' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Kane Farrell (58'), Joe Richards (78'), Connor Rozee (80' ×2), Jason Horne-Francis (93'), Darcy Byrne-Jones (96') · Richmond: Seth Campbell (14' ×2), Liam Fawcett (52' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Bauer (54' Tipped ⚡), Sam Lalor (81'), Jacob Blight (84'), Kamdyn McIntosh (89'), Harry Armstrong (76' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 99% | Won |
| Richmond | 1% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 66.4 predicted → 72 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 140–68 Richmond in AFL Round 2 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Port Adelaide winning by 66.4 points before a ball was bounced. Port Adelaide won by 72, 140 to 68. Give the model a pat on the head for that one, because a 99% win probability call rarely gets backed up this emphatically.

What's odd is where that read came from. On recent form alone, Richmond looked the better side walking in. Their win rate over the last five games sat at 2.74 versus Port's 2.04, their average margin was plus 27.7 against Port's minus 4.77, and they were even outdisposing Port on average coming in, 361.4 to 343.9. None of that showed up on the day. The model leaned instead on the positional ratings, where Port held every single line: forwards 1079 to 1025, ruck 1068 to 1028, defence 1005 to 925, midfield 1026 to 922. That's the version of the story that actually turned up at Adelaide Oval.

Not that Richmond rolled over in the engine room. They won clearances 40 to 36, contested possession 120 to 114 and hit-outs 42 to 40. On paper that's a midfield performance you'd happily take into most games. It just didn't matter, because this one wasn't decided at the coalface.

It was decided everywhere else on the ground. Port finished with 478 disposals to 297, working at 78.1% efficiency against Richmond's 68.2%. They took 133 marks to 70, and inside their forward 50 the gap was embarrassing: 19 marks to 8. Richmond actually kept the inside 50 count respectable, 50 entries to Port's 56, but too many of those entries hit the turf instead of a chest. Port also brought more heat without the ball, laying 52 tackles to 39, and read the play better in defence with 57 intercepts to Richmond's 47.

The scoreboard shows this wasn't a slow burn. Port led 42 to 9 at quarter time, then blew it out to 89 to 24 by half time. By three-quarter time it was 127 to 46, and the last quarter simply confirmed what had already been established, Port adding 13 to Richmond's 22 in a stretch that mattered for the ledger but not the result. The margin never seriously wobbled once the second term was done.

So where did the model's read hold and where did it wobble? It held on the macro shape, the ratings gap across all four lines proved the more reliable signal than either side's recent form. It undercooked the final margin slightly, tipping 66.4 against an actual 72, but for a 99% probability call that's a rounding error, not a miss. Richmond's clearance and contested ball edge was real, but it turned out to be the kind of stat that wins you a quarter, not a game, when the rest of the sheet reads 478 disposals to 297 and 133 marks to 70 the other way.

Three from three for Alphr's model picks in this one. The interesting part isn't that Port won, everyone expected that. It's that they won playing almost the opposite game to what Richmond's form suggested they'd face, and did it running away from three-quarter time to the final siren.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 42 | 47 | 38 | 13 | 140 |
| Richmond | 9 | 15 | 22 | 22 | 68 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **478** | Disposals | 297 |
| 114 | Contested poss. | **120** |
| 36 | Clearances | **40** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| **133** | Marks | 70 |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| **52** | Tackles | 39 |
| 40 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| **57** | Intercepts | 47 |
| **78.1%** | Disposal eff. | 68.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 99% probability. The predicted margin of 66.4 was reasonable against the actual 72-point result. Port Adelaide led 89–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 72. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.12 (edge +9.3%) — model probability 98.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 66 · Predicted total: 200

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (1·2·1·1·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 6/15g | 30/108g | 70% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 1 in 1g | 12/10g (0·2·2·1·2·2·0·0·2·1) | 5/7g | 4/6g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (0·1·1·2·2·2·1·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 25/28g | 74% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/20g | 63/129g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 1 in 1g | 17/10g (2·1·4·0·2·3·1·2·1·1) | 8/8g | 48/27g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 26' 66' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/53g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 9/10g | 70/70g | 48% | — | 🏉 80' 86' |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/23g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 5/18g | 23% | — | 🏉 28' 40' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 22/50g | 12% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/32g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/7g | 13% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 10/46g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 0 in 1g | 22/10g (0·5·3·3·4·2·1·3·1·0) | 4/3g | 60/38g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' 56' 73' 87' |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/18g | 53/126g | 20% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Ryan Burton | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/11g | 12/62g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 0 in 1g | 13/10g (3·1·2·2·2·0·0·2·1·0) | 6/10g | 57/77g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' 61' 72' |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 9/60g | 12% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 2 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/7g | 1/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 3/2g | 44% | — | 🏉 14' 90' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/13g | 1/15g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Bauer | KF | 1 in 1g | 9/8g (0·1·2·1·2·0·2·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/7g | 5/12g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 1 in 1g | 12/10g (1·1·2·3·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 5/5g | 7/6g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.80 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' 81' |
| – | Jacob Blight | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 5/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Smith | DEF | no games | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 5/16g | 24% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Liam Fawcett | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $19.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/13g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/18g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/7g (0·0·3·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 3/13g | 44% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.87 | 85% | 39 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.94 | 71% | 33 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 17 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 75% | 31 ✗ |
| Willem Drew ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 22 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 20.5 | $1.78 | 56% | 32 ✗ |
| Travis Boak | 19.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 28 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 21 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $2.00 | 58% | 17 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.85 | 66% | 21 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 22.5 | $1.91 | 48% | 24 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 21.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 14 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 20.5 | $1.85 | 63% | 11 ✓ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 18 ✗ |
| Thomson Dow | 17.5 | $1.96 | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.85 | 44% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)