AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 99% probability. The predicted margin of 66.4 was reasonable against the actual 72-point result. Port Adelaide led 89–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 72. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
99%
Richmond
1%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide are clear favourites here at 99%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Port Adelaide carry a 150-point ELO rating advantage (1435 vs 1285). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 66.4 points with a combined total of 200.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.12
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.3%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.3%
Total Points
Over 177.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WWLLL | 64.0 |
Richmond | WLLLL | 68.8 |
Avg Conceded
101.6
Port Adelaide
96.6
Richmond
Avg Margin
-37.6
Port Adelaide
-27.8
Richmond
Disposals
318.0
Port Adelaide
358.2
Richmond
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
99%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 66 points
Predicted total: 200 · Line: +66.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.48
Team Effectiveness
+0.84
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.