AFL | Round 2

North Melbourne are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but North Melbourne counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Melbourne carry a 89-point ELO rating advantage (1515 vs 1426). Recent form favours Melbourne with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 17.8 points with a combined total of 174.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

North Melbourne to Win @3.10

Winner ✓

Edge

+52.3%

✓

Line / Spread

North Melbourne +16.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+52.3%

✓

Total Points

Under 176.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.6%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
North Melbourne	W W L L L	73.9
Melbourne	W W W L L	106.0

Avg Conceded

87.8

North Melbourne

97.6

Melbourne

Avg Margin

-8.8

North Melbourne

21.1

Melbourne

Disposals

340.8

North Melbourne

378.1

Melbourne

Inside 50s

47.8

North Melbourne

46.6

Melbourne

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NOR

1426Overall1515

MEL

ELO difference: -89 in favour of Melbourne

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

962Midfield1011

MEL +49

891Forwards1048

MEL +158

942Defence1056

MEL +114

910Ruck1050

MEL +140

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NOR

Stat

MEL

2.4

Wins (Last 5)

2.7

73.9pts

Avg Score

106.0pts

87.8pts

Avg Conceded

97.6pts

-8.8pts

Avg Margin

21.1pts

340.8

Disposals

378.1

47.8

Inside 50s

46.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Melbourne

Midfield ELO11.0%

Melbourne

Recent Win Rate10.0%

Melbourne

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Melbourne

Defensive ELO8.0%

Melbourne

Venue Advantage7.0%

Melbourne

H2H History6.0%

—

Model Confidence

85%

North Melbourne predicted to win by 18 points

Predicted total: 174 · Line: +17.8

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.27

Team Effectiveness

+0.40

Elite

Hard Worker

Efficient

Poor Game

Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

2/3 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props