# North Melbourne v Melbourne — AFL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 125 – 66 Melbourne

_North Melbourne put Melbourne to the sword._

Half time: 57 – 45 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 85% / Melbourne 15% · Marvel Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Jy Simpkin (17'), Paul Curtis (21' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Luke Parker (43' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Konstanty (45'), Tom Powell (56'), Jack Darling (58' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cameron Zurhaar (66' ×4), Colby McKercher (89'), Final quarter (31m 33s)Paul Curtis (68'), Nick Larkey (70' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Scott (91') · Melbourne: Jacob van Rooyen (7' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Henderson (15'), Kade Chandler (25' ×3), Bayley Fritsch (35' Tipped ⚡), Clayton Oliver (46'), Daniel Turner (79'), Christian Petracca (83' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 85% | Won |
| Melbourne | 15% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 17.8 predicted → 59 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 125–66 Melbourne in AFL Round 2 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne 125, Melbourne 66. Fifty-nine points is a hiding by anyone's measure, but for the first twelve minutes of this thing you'd have sworn it was the other way round. Melbourne led 29-23 at quarter time. Whatever happened after that turned a form line on its head.

Because on paper this was meant to be tight, and arguably meant to go the other way. Melbourne walked in with the stronger rating in every single position group: midfield 1011 to 962, forwards 1048 to 891, defence 1056 to 942, ruck 1050 to 910. Their recent form backed it up too, averaging 106 points a game with a plus-21 margin over their last five, against North Melbourne's minus-8.8. Alphr's model still had North Melbourne winning at 85% probability, but the projected margin was 17.8. The actual gap was 59. That's not a miss, that's a different result entirely.

So what flipped it. North Melbourne scored 34 points in the second quarter to Melbourne's 16, turning a six-point deficit into a twelve-point lead by half time, 57-45. From there Melbourne never got within touching distance again, and the final term was the killer: North Melbourne piled on 49 points to Melbourne's 8 to blow it out to 59.

The stat sheet backs up where it was actually won. North Melbourne finished with 403 disposals to 351, and did far more with them, an 80.0% efficiency rate against Melbourne's 68.7%. Clearances went 42-30 their way, contested possessions 139-120, marks 100-82. That's control of the footy, not just volume.

Oddly, Melbourne actually won a couple of the ledger items you'd expect to matter more. They had more inside 50s, 56 to 53, and more intercepts, 70 to 65. It didn't matter. Getting the ball forward is only useful if you can do something with it once it's there, and North Melbourne's efficiency edge meant their entries counted for more. Marks inside 50 were close, 12-11, but everything around it, the clean hands, the clearance dominance, the extra 52 disposals, meant North Melbourne simply had more use of it.

Melbourne's defence, rated the strongest position group on the park pre-match at 1056, leaked 125 points and conceded a 59-point margin it had no recent form to explain. Whatever was meant to travel from that form line into this game didn't show up after quarter time.

For the model, this one's a mixed bag. The winner was picked, and correctly at that, with North Melbourne covering the 16.5-point line comfortably. The margin call is the one to file away though, out by more than 41 points, and the total came in 17 points over the predicted 174. Two from three isn't nothing, but the size of this win says more about what happened after the opening quarter than anything the pre-match numbers suggested. Form lines are guides, not guarantees, and Marvel Stadium just handed out a reminder of that.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 23 | 34 | 19 | 49 | 125 |
| Melbourne | 29 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 66 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **403** | Disposals | 351 |
| **139** | Contested poss. | 120 |
| **42** | Clearances | 30 |
| 53 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| **100** | Marks | 82 |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **49** | Tackles | 47 |
| **32** | Hit-outs | 30 |
| 65 | Intercepts | **70** |
| **80.0%** | Disposal eff. | 68.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 85% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.8 but the actual margin was 59 points. The game's 191 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 174. North Melbourne led 57–45 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 59. The model went 2/3 on this match. North Melbourne covered the 16.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $3.10 (edge +52.3%) — model probability 84.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +16.5 @ $1.91 (edge +52.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 18 · Predicted total: 174

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 5 in 1g | 23/10g (0·3·3·2·3·5·1·1·0·5) | 11/7g | 111/52g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' 71' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 3 in 1g | 14/10g (2·1·0·3·1·0·3·0·1·3) | 1/4g | 34/27g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 77' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·2) | 1/5g | 21/47g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 15/42g | 30% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (2·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 11/6g | 77/55g | 70% | — | 🏉 66' 81' 75' 78' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 37/17g | 56/33g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' 85' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·3·1) | 6/9g | 27/71g | 42% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/39g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 30/89g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/14g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Darcy Tucker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 9/30g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/13g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 0 in 1g | 11/10g (2·2·1·1·0·2·1·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 8/21g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 11/95g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 12/10g (1·0·0·2·3·3·0·0·3·0) | 10/15g | 29/33g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.88 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/9g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 11/33g | 30% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 10/25g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Will Phillips | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/19g | 16% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 2 in 1g | 13/10g (1·0·1·0·5·1·2·1·0·2) | 7/9g | 24/17g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Matthew Jefferson | KF | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 78% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henderson | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 1 in 1g | 14/10g (2·4·0·2·1·0·0·3·1·1) | 4/3g | 0/1g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 7/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 0 in 1g | 13/10g (1·3·3·0·2·2·1·1·0·0) | 19/7g | 24/12g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | no games | 5/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/9g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/17g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 3/16g | 20% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | no games | 13/10g (2·1·1·3·1·0·0·0·4·1) | 2/1g | 0/1g | 57% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 7/15g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 3/3g | 4/8g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/11g | 6/23g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/17g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/3g | 0/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 25' 54' 84' |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 12/24g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Taj Woewodin | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 23/25g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/8g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 28 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 93% | 31 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 26.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 23 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 24.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 24 ✓ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 81% | 31 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher | 21.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 17 ✓ |
| Bailey Scott | 20.5 | $1.89 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri | 17.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 20 ✗ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 36 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 23 ✓ |
| Christian Salem ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 24 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 16 ✓ |
| Jack Viney | 22.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Ed Langdon | 19.5 | $1.87 | 32% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom Sparrow ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 25 ✗ |
| Max Gawn | 18.5 | $1.96 | 55% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)