# Fremantle v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 65 – 68 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans fight back to ruffle the feathers of Fremantle._

Half time: 35 – 26 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 75% / Sydney Swans 25% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 23 Mar, 06:10 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Josh Treacy (9' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Luke Jackson (21'), Patrick Voss (27'), Caleb Serong (51'), Bailey Banfield (85'), Jye Amiss (73' Tipped ⚡) · Sydney Swans: Joel Amartey (36' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Chad Warner (49'), Hayden McLean (66' ×2), Will Hayward (68' Tipped ⚡), Tom Hanily (83'), Riley Bice (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 75% | Lost |
| Sydney Swans | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.2 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 65–68 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 2 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-seven clearances to 25. That's the number that flipped Fremantle's 27-point head start into a three-point loss, and it's why Sydney Swans left Optus Stadium with a 68-65 win they had no business getting after the first quarter.

Fremantle led 27-5 at quarter time. A start like that usually buries a team. Instead Sydney Swans clawed it back to 35-26 by half time, then to just two points down at the last change, 56-54, before running past them in the final term to win by three. The scoreboard went from a rout to a heist inside three quarters.

The clearance count tells you how. Sydney Swans won the ball at the source, 37 to 25, and that kept feeding their forward line even as Fremantle held the edge everywhere else on paper. Fremantle actually won more disposals, 363 to 348, more contested possessions, 140 to 132, and more inside 50s, 59 to 55. None of it mattered as much as who was winning first use of the ball out of stoppages.

Fremantle's other calling card was accuracy inside their forward 50, 12 marks there to Sydney's 9, and that's usually the stat that wins tight games. It wasn't enough. Sydney Swans took more marks overall, 94 to 83, laid more tackles, 57 to 48, and just edged Fremantle on disposal efficiency, 69.7% to 70.9%, close enough to call it a wash. Fremantle's 74 intercepts to 69 kept them in it, but repeat entries built on stolen clearances eventually told.

The pre-match numbers explain why this looked like a mismatch on paper that wasn't one in practice. Fremantle's defence rated well ahead, 1078 to 1026, and their ruck edge, 1046 to 980, showed up in 34 hit-outs to 31. But Sydney Swans came in rated stronger at both ends that count for territory, forwards 1064 to 1009 and, crucially, a deeper form line in the midfield battle that the ratings only partly captured at 975 to 1014. Their recent form pointed to a side that scores more and travels forward more often, averaging 50.5 inside 50s a game to Fremantle's 42.8, and that gap showed up exactly where it needed to on the day.

Alphr's model had Fremantle favourites at 75 percent, expecting them to win by 8.2 in a game worth 169 combined points. The margin read was close, 8.2 projected against a three-point Sydney win in reality, and the total call landed too: 133 points, well under the predicted 169, made the under 172.5 pick a winner. The favourite just didn't turn up on the right side of the ledger, and Sydney Swans' second-half comeback is exactly the sort of scoreline that keeps a 75 percent number honest rather than automatic.

Fremantle will look at that quarter-time buffer and wonder how it evaporated. The answer sits in one column of the stat sheet. Clearances win territory, territory wins scoreboards, and on this occasion Sydney Swans won that battle by twelve.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 27 | 8 | 21 | 9 | 65 |
| Sydney Swans | 5 | 21 | 28 | 14 | 68 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| **363** | Disposals | 348 |
| **140** | Contested poss. | 132 |
| 25 | Clearances | **37** |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| 83 | Marks | **94** |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 48 | Tackles | **57** |
| **34** | Hit-outs | 31 |
| **74** | Intercepts | 69 |
| **70.9%** | Disposal eff. | 69.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Sydney Swans defied the model's 75% prediction for Fremantle, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 8.2 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 133 points came in 36 points lower than the predicted 169. Sydney Swans trailed 35–26 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 65–68. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.70 (edge +15.8%) — model probability 74.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 8 · Predicted total: 169

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 4 in 1g | 4/1g (4) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 2 in 1g | 14/10g (1·2·0·0·3·1·1·3·1·2) | 5/6g | 49/43g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 28/75g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 26/50g | 48% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 21/54g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 1 in 1g | 25/10g (3·2·2·2·5·1·3·3·3·1) | 7/5g | 37/29g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 12' 61' 73' |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/54g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Walker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/31g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·3·2·0·0) | 2/8g | 19/53g | 36% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/24g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 12/29g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 5/13g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 6/39g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 0 in 1g | 17/10g (3·1·1·4·1·4·1·1·1·0) | 6/4g | 40/25g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 5/7g | 22/29g | 58% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/76g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/20g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/12g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | no games | 7/7g (1·0·1·1·0·2·2) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 71% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | no games | 15/10g (1·0·4·2·1·0·1·2·3·1) | 6/8g | 21/9g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 4 in 2g | 11/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·2·1·2·2) | 5/6g | 7/5g | 74% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 3 in 2g | 12/10g (1·0·0·2·2·1·3·0·3·0) | 5/4g | 4/3g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' 85' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/3g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 2 in 2g | 13/10g (0·0·1·1·3·3·2·1·0·2) | 17/13g | 8/7g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 2 in 2g | 13/10g (1·1·3·3·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 16/11g | 14/9g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/16g | 2/9g | 22% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/9g | 2/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 4/8g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 1 in 2g | 16/10g (2·2·1·4·0·2·3·1·1·0) | 17/12g | 8/8g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 79% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 3/10g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | no games | 10/10g (2·1·2·2·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 3/5g | 64% | — | 🏉 66' 77' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/25g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/1g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/5g | 38% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 28.5 | $1.89 | 47% | 19 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong | 26.5 | $1.92 | 53% | 19 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.82 | 70% | 24 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 23 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.85 | 82% | 17 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 84% | 25 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 84% | 20 ✗ |
| Jeremy Sharp | 18.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 18 ✓ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 21 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.80 | 56% | 26 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey | 22.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts | 22.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 100% | 14 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 22 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 18.5 | $1.96 | 39% | 25 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent | 18.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 11 ✓ |
| James Jordon ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.94 | 78% | 24 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)