AI Game Review
Sydney Swans defied the model's 75% prediction for Fremantle, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 8.2 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 133 points came in 36 points lower than the predicted 169. Sydney Swans trailed 35–26 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 65–68. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
75%
Sydney Swans
25%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 8.2 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.70
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.8%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.8%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W L L L L | 83.4 |
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 98.0 |
Avg Conceded
68.2
Fremantle
79.2
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
24.6
Fremantle
12.2
Sydney Swans
Disposals
358.6
Fremantle
358.2
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
42.8
Fremantle
50.5
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Fremantle predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +8.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.07
Team Effectiveness
-0.04
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.