AI Game Review
Sydney Swans defied the model's 75% prediction for Fremantle — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 8.2 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 133 points came in 36 points lower than the predicted 169. Sydney Swans trailed 35–26 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 65–68. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
75%
Sydney Swans
25%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. Sydney Swans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but Fremantle counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Sydney Swans carry a 76-point ELO rating advantage (1537 vs 1461). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 8.2 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.70
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.8%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.8%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | LLLLL | 75.8 |
Sydney Swans | WWLLL | 80.2 |
Avg Conceded
99.6
Fremantle
88.6
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
-23.8
Fremantle
-8.4
Sydney Swans
Disposals
358.0
Fremantle
336.2
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
Sydney Swans
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sydney Swans hold the ELO advantage (1537 vs 1461), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.70).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Fremantle predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +8.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.07
Team Effectiveness
-0.04
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.