# Essendon v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 100 – 161 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows run riot over Essendon._

Half time: 34 – 74 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 12% / Adelaide Crows 88% · MCG · Sat, 22 Mar, 01:20 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Sam Draper (2' ×3 1st), Tom Edwards (21' ×3), Zach Merrett (45' ×3), Nic Martin (47'), Jade Gresham (66' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Kako (86' ×2), Final quarter (36m 36s)Zach Merrett (62') · Adelaide Crows: Wayne Milera (7'), Ben Keays (10' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (14' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (30' ×2), Riley Thilthorpe (38' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Hinge (51'), Izak Rankine (53' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (76' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Curtin (78'), Jake Soligo (63' ×2), Lachlan Sholl (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 88% | Won |
| Essendon | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 28.4 predicted → 61 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 100–161 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 2 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Adelaide Crows favourites at 88% and picked the right team. On margin, it wasn't close. The model landed on Adelaide by 28.4 points and a combined total of 156. The Crows won by 61, and the game produced 261 points, 105 more than forecast. Two from three isn't a bad night's work, but that margin miss is a big one, and it's worth working out why.

Start with the clock. Adelaide led 35-20 at quarter time, then 74-34 at the main break, already a 40-point buffer. By three-quarter time it was 118-61. Essendon never found a way to slow the bleeding, and the Crows kept adding to it rather than sitting on the lead, eventually running out 161-100 winners.

The disposal count tells part of it: 392 to 351 in Adelaide's favour, with the Crows finding targets at 76.9% compared to Essendon's 69.5%. That's not a huge gap in efficiency on paper, but stretched across nearly 400 disposals it compounds fast. Adelaide's forward set-up, rated 1065 to Essendon's 974 pre-match, the biggest positional gap on the sheet, showed up exactly where you'd expect: 63 inside 50s to 48, and a lopsided 20 marks inside 50 to Essendon's 7. When a team is that much cleaner entering the forward line, the scoreboard follows.

Marks overall were even more one-sided, 129 to 59. That's the number that explains a 61-point beating better than anything else. Essendon simply couldn't win the footy in the air or find a target once it went forward, and Adelaide's extra 60 tackles to 48 made sure second and third efforts weren't easy either.

Essendon actually shaded a couple of the contested measures, clearances 39 to 38 and hit-outs 38 to 34, so this wasn't a team that got smashed at every contest. The problem was what happened after the clearance. Adelaide's defensive rating (964) was lower than Essendon's (1004) coming in, yet the Bombers couldn't turn ball-winning into scoreboard pressure, managing only 7 marks inside their forward 50 all day.

Form lines pointed to a tighter contest than this. Essendon actually arrived with the better recent scoring average, 103.3 to 99.5, and a better average margin, minus 2.1 to Adelaide's minus 7.2. On paper this looked like two sides trending in similar directions. On the day, Adelaide's forward strength and disposal efficiency turned a probability edge into a percentage-wrecking margin, the kind of gap the model's 88% win read anticipated but its points spread badly underestimated.

So the read was right on the who, wrong on the how much. Adelaide Crows covered the 13.5-point line with plenty to spare, and Essendon's afternoon at the MCG never had an answer once the marks count and the inside-50 count both ran away from them.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 20 | 14 | 27 | 39 | 100 |
| Adelaide Crows | 35 | 39 | 44 | 43 | 161 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Disposals | **392** |
| 126 | Contested poss. | **127** |
| **39** | Clearances | 38 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **63** |
| 59 | Marks | **129** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **20** |
| 48 | Tackles | **60** |
| **38** | Hit-outs | 34 |
| 63 | Intercepts | **69** |
| 69.5% | Disposal eff. | **76.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 28.4 but the actual margin was 61 points. The game's 261 points came in 105 points higher than the predicted 156. Adelaide Crows led 34–74 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 61. The model went 2/3 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 13.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.47 (edge +20.4%) — model probability 88.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 28 · Predicted total: 156

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 2 in 1g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·2) | 8/9g | 7/11g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 2 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 5/10g | 30/72g | 48% | — | 🏉 45' 91' 95' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/4g | 14/26g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 5/3g | 15/16g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | — | 🏉 86' 85' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·0·2·0·3·0·0·1·1) | 8/9g | 30/23g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 12/23g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·3·1·1·1) | 2/4g | 12/23g | 58% | — | 🏉 2' 25' 81' |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/48g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 5/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 12/42g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 10/12g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 7/38g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (2·1·0·2·0·1·3·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (0·0·4·0·0·2·0·3·1·0) | 4/4g | 18/25g | 36% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 7/26g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Thomas Edwards | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 21' 68' 71' |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 4 in 1g | 22/10g (3·2·1·4·0·1·5·2·0·4) | 8/4g | 10/7g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 79' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 3 in 1g | 18/10g (0·0·2·2·2·3·2·1·3·3) | 3/3g | 1/3g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' 96' 88' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/5g | 1/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 2 in 1g | 22/10g (4·3·3·1·2·2·2·1·2·2) | 5/4g | 6/5g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' 84' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 5/10g | 4/11g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 2 in 1g | 16/10g (1·2·0·1·3·1·3·2·1·2) | 7/4g | 3/4g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 58' 82' 96' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 59/90g | 40% | — | 🏉 30' 65' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 1 in 1g | 20/10g (2·4·1·5·1·1·3·1·1·1) | 10/8g | 3/9g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 37' 68' 74' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 32% | — | 🏉 63' 93' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Matt Crouch | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 1/17g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 1 in 1g | 15/10g (2·0·2·2·0·3·2·1·2·1) | 29/11g | 44/23g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/8g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sholl | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/5g | 34% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/5g | 8% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/21g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 7' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 27.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 36 ✗ |
| Nic Martin | 25.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 20 ✓ |
| Jye Caldwell | 25.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 27 ✗ |
| Dylan Shiel | 22.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 21 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.83 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 21.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 21 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 19 ✓ |
| Elijah Tsatas ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 94% | 25 ✗ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Crouch | 29.5 | $1.98 | 56% | 32 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 27.5 | $2.00 | 57% | 23 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 82% | 27 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.92 | 65% | 33 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 82% | 15 ✓ |
| Lachlan Sholl | 20.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 19 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 20.5 | $1.94 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 18 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)