AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 28.4 but the actual margin was 61 points. The game's 261 points came in 105 points higher than the predicted 156. Adelaide Crows led 34–74 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 61. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
12%
Adelaide Crows
88%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 88%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Adelaide Crows carry a 186-point ELO rating advantage (1578 vs 1392). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 28.4 points with a combined total of 156.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.47
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.4%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +13.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.4%
Total Points
Under 179.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | WLLLL | 77.4 |
Adelaide Crows | WWLLL | 95.8 |
Avg Conceded
94.4
Essendon
87.0
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-17.0
Essendon
8.8
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
396.0
Essendon
374.2
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
Essendon
50.0
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
88%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 28 points
Predicted total: 156 · Line: -28.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.38
Team Effectiveness
-0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.