AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 84% probability. The predicted margin of 29.3 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Hawthorn trailed 40–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 60–80. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
16%
Hawthorn
84%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO, but Hawthorn counter with Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Recent form favours Carlton with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 29.3 points with a combined total of 147.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.44
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.1%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +15.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.1%
Total Points
Under 154.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W W W W L | 92.6 |
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 103.0 |
Avg Conceded
78.2
Carlton
80.7
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
28.7
Carlton
14.7
Hawthorn
Disposals
339.7
Carlton
367.1
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
48.6
Carlton
43.8
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1567 vs 1559), but the market favours Hawthorn (@1.44).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 29 points
Predicted total: 147 · Line: -29.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.17
Team Effectiveness
-0.54
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.