# Carlton v Hawthorn — AFL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 60 – 80 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn roar back to stun Carlton._

Half time: 40 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 16% / Hawthorn 84% · MCG · Thu, 20 Mar, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: George Hewett (6' 1st), Matthew Cottrell (23'), Brodie Kemp (38'), Zac Williams (40' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Silvagni (52'), Adam Cerra (57'), Jesse Motlop (93' Tipped ⚡) · Hawthorn: Dylan Moore (17' Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (34' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Blake Hardwick (65'), Jack Gunston (76' ×2), Josh Ward (80'), Mabior Chol (83' ×2 Tipped ⚡), James Sicily (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 84% | Won |
| Carlton | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 29.3 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 60–80 Hawthorn in AFL Round 2 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton won the clearance count 51 to 39. They won contested possession too, 147 to 143. On paper, that's the kind of midfield dominance that should have Carlton fans feeling good about themselves. Instead they lost by 20.

The frustrating part for Carlton is that it wasn't nothing. They actually led at half time, 40 to 35, having clawed back a 15 to 13 deficit at quarter time. For a stretch there, the clearance work was translating into scoreboard pressure. But it never really put Hawthorn away, and by three-quarter time the ledger had flipped again, Hawthorn up 61 to 56.

Where it fell apart is easy enough to spot. Carlton finished with 49 marks to Hawthorn's 74, and inside forward 50 the gap was brutal: 5 marks to 13. You can win the clearance battle all day, but if you can't hold the ball once it's inside your attacking zone, those inside 50s (Carlton actually had fewer, 53 to 55, so not even a volume issue) just turn into stoppages and turnovers rather than scores. Disposal efficiency tells the same story, Carlton at 65.0% against Hawthorn's 73.1%. Cleaner side, cleaner spoils.

Hawthorn's day was built on exactly the things the ratings suggested it would be. They came in rated stronger through the midfield, 1114 to 1094, and finished with 368 disposals to Carlton's 313, racking up the footy at a clip their recent form (367.1 disposals a game over their last five) had already flagged as normal for them. The one spot Carlton held a big edge, ruck, 1108 to 1006, with a near-even hit-out count, 46 to 47, didn't do much to blunt any of it.

From three-quarter time it was Hawthorn's game to close out, and they did exactly that, adding scoreboard pressure through the final quarter to turn a five-point lead into a 20-point win, 80 to 60. Tackle numbers were tight all day, 88 to 85 in Hawthorn's favour, and intercepts were close too, 75 to 72. It wasn't a defensive rout. It was a side that used its own ball better and made Carlton's inside 50 entries count for less.

Alphr's model had this one pegged well before the bounce. Hawthorn were rated $1559 to Carlton's $1567 on raw ELO but still installed as 84% favourites, with an expected margin of 29.3 and a combined total of 147. The final numbers landed at 80 to 60, a 20-point margin and a total of 140, close enough to the predicted shape that all three model picks for the match came in. Hawthorn trailing at the half before grinding it back was the one wrinkle the model didn't spell out explicitly, but the eventual outcome, a clear Hawthorn win off the back of cleaner ball use, was exactly the read going in.

Carlton will look at the clearance and contested possession numbers and wonder how they lost. The answer's sitting right there in the marks column.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 13 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 60 |
| Hawthorn | 15 | 20 | 26 | 19 | 80 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 313 | Disposals | **368** |
| **147** | Contested poss. | 143 |
| **51** | Clearances | 39 |
| 53 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| 49 | Marks | **74** |
| 5 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 85 | Tackles | **88** |
| 46 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| 72 | Intercepts | **75** |
| 65.0% | Disposal eff. | **73.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 84% probability. The predicted margin of 29.3 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Hawthorn trailed 40–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 60–80. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.44 (edge +14.1%) — model probability 83.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 154.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 29 · Predicted total: 147

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·1) | 6/12g | 14/33g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·4·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/17g | 16% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·4·1·1) | 7/7g | 33/47g | 54% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 10/28g | 52% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 15/41g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (3·2·0·1·3·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/7g | 7/28g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' 91' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 10/28g | 26% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/56g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | no games | 24/10g (3·2·5·2·1·3·4·3·0·1) | 9/5g | 101/48g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 90% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/11g | 10/39g | 24% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 7/66g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (2·0·3·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/16g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 93' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·0·3·0·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 2/5g | 14/28g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/19g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lucas Camporeale | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 27/36g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/23g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/15g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (2·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 38/79g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 9/61g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 14/26g | 30% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 5 in 2g | 14/10g (0·1·1·0·2·4·0·1·2·3) | 3/4g | 44/42g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' |
| – | Will Day | MID | 4 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·1) | 1/4g | 4/25g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 3 in 2g | 15/10g (2·2·2·1·1·3·0·1·1·2) | 5/4g | 24/23g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 83' 69' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 3 in 2g | 21/10g (3·2·0·0·3·3·4·3·0·3) | 0/1g | 16/9g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 84' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/9g | 8/67g | 16% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 2 in 2g | 14/10g (4·2·1·0·0·3·2·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 21/28g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.57 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 4/20g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 2 in 2g | 13/10g (2·2·0·2·0·2·1·2·0·2) | 5/4g | 53/39g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 5/15g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 6/41g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 11/31g | 46% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 28/69g | 24% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 7/18g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 10/26g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (2·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 5/16g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/18g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 9/42g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | no games | 18/10g (3·0·1·0·4·3·5·1·1·0) | 29/12g | 204/109g | 66% | — | 🏉 76' 89' |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 14/57g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/14g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/19g | 8% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | 27.5 | $2.00 | 47% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Walsh | 26.5 | $1.92 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 24.5 | $2.00 | 54% | 28 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.96 | 69% | 28 ✗ |
| Blake Acres | 21.5 | $1.99 | 47% | 10 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 20.5 | $1.75 | 61% | 13 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.96 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 17.5 | $1.82 | 56% | 11 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 24.5 | $2.00 | 45% | 32 ✗ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 76% | 26 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 22.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.75 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 21.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 19 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.97 | 73% | 19 ✓ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 18.5 | $1.94 | 50% | 9 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)