AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 99% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 69.9 but the actual margin was 19 points. Brisbane Lions trailed 27–51 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 94–75. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
99%
West Coast Eagles
1%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 99%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 519-point ELO rating advantage (1732 vs 1213). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 69.9 points with a combined total of 183.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.02
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.6%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -62.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.6%
Total Points
Over 181.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | WWWWW | 101.0 |
West Coast Eagles | WWLLL | 71.4 |
Avg Conceded
79.6
Brisbane Lions
117.4
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
21.4
Brisbane Lions
-46.0
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
353.2
Brisbane Lions
316.8
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Brisbane Lions
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
99%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 70 points
Predicted total: 183 · Line: +69.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.