AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 99% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 69.9 but the actual margin was 19 points. Brisbane Lions trailed 27–51 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 94–75. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
99%
West Coast Eagles
1%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 99%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. West Coast Eagles are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Brisbane Lions counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 69.9 points with a combined total of 183.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.02
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.6%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -62.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.6%
Total Points
Over 181.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 91.4 |
West Coast Eagles | W W W W L | 103.7 |
Avg Conceded
93.6
Brisbane Lions
85.6
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
26.5
Brisbane Lions
11.7
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
350.3
Brisbane Lions
344.7
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
51.3
Brisbane Lions
45.8
West Coast Eagles
ELO–Market Disagreement
West Coast Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1515 vs 1497), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.02).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
99%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 70 points
Predicted total: 183 · Line: +69.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.