# Brisbane Lions v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 2 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 94 – 75 West Coast Eagles

_Brisbane Lions hit back to roar past West Coast Eagles from 24 down._

Half time: 27 – 51 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 99% / West Coast Eagles 1% · Gabba · Sun, 23 Mar, 01:10 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris (27' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Lachie Neale (42'), Zac Bailey (56' Tipped ⚡), Callum Ah Chee (69' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Eric Hipwood (79' ×2), Will McLachlan (92'), Josh Dunkley (71'), Jaspa Fletcher (96') · West Coast Eagles: Tyrell Dewar (5' ×2 1st), Liam Ryan (9' ×3), Jamie Cripps (18'), Oscar Allen (21' Tipped ⚡), Clay Hall (40'), Jack Petruccelle (98'), Tyler Brockman (79' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 99% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 1% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 69.9 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 2, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm · Last updated: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 94–75 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 2 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Brisbane Lions winning by 69.9 points. What turned up was a 19-point win, and one that didn't exist until the last quarter. The model backed the right team, tipping Brisbane at 99% probability, but the margin read was well off. That gap between the pre-match number and the final one is the story of how this game actually played out.

Brisbane were behind for the best part of three quarters. West Coast led 32-8 at quarter time, stretched it to 51-27 at half-time, and were still up 63-60 at the final change. That's not a form line, that's a genuine contest Brisbane had to come from behind to win. The turnaround was a last-quarter job. Brisbane outscored West Coast 34-12 in the final term to flip a three-point deficit into a 19-point win.

Look at the stat sheet and the eventual margin makes more sense, even if the timing doesn't. Brisbane finished with 377 disposals to 323, ran up 48 clearances to 36, and went inside 50 sixty times to West Coast's 48. The efficiency numbers explain why it mattered: 71.9% disposal efficiency against 64.3%, and 13 marks inside 50 to West Coast's 7. Marks overall were lopsided too, 148 to 67. Brisbane were doing more with the ball and doing it more often. It just took three quarters for that volume to show up on the scoreboard.

Contested footy was close to even, 129 possessions to 128, and tackles were nearly identical, 58 to 57. Intercepts actually favoured West Coast, 69 to 67, which lines up with how they managed to hold the lead as long as they did. Where Brisbane pulled clear was around the stoppage: 45 hit-outs to 37 fed into that 48-36 clearance count, and that territory game eventually became scoreboard pressure.

The pre-match ratings had West Coast stronger through the midfield, 1019 to 955, with forwards dead level at 1003 apiece and defence essentially a coin flip, 1052 to 1051. Brisbane's edge was in the ruck, 1031 to 995, and that showed up in the hit-out count. Winning the ruck battle while rating behind in the midfield is an odd mix on paper, but Brisbane still came out on top of clearances, so the ruck work clearly fed something down the line.

Form coming in leaned West Coast's way too. They'd averaged close to four wins from their last five against Brisbane's one and a half, scored more heavily on average, 103.7 points to 91.4, and carried a healthier average margin. Brisbane's underlying form numbers,

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 8 | 19 | 33 | 34 | 94 |
| West Coast Eagles | 32 | 19 | 12 | 12 | 75 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **377** | Disposals | 323 |
| **129** | Contested poss. | 128 |
| **48** | Clearances | 36 |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **148** | Marks | 67 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **58** | Tackles | 57 |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 37 |
| 67 | Intercepts | **69** |
| **71.9%** | Disposal eff. | 64.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 99% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 69.9 but the actual margin was 19 points. Brisbane Lions trailed 27–51 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 94–75. The model went 2/3 on this match. Brisbane Lions covered the 62.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.02 (edge +0.6%) — model probability 98.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -62.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 70 · Predicted total: 183

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | West Coast Eagles | 69 – 93 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | R18 | West Coast Eagles | 93 – 106 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2023 | R17 | Brisbane Lions | 116 – 35 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2022 | R8 | Brisbane Lions | 105 – 30 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2021 | R23 | Brisbane Lions | 125 – 87 | West Coast Eagles |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 4 in 1g | 14/10g (1·3·0·1·1·1·1·2·0·4) | 6/7g | 65/71g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 6/12g | 129/141g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 1 in 1g | 15/10g (0·2·2·0·0·2·1·3·4·1) | 1/4g | 25/52g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 72' 96' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 6/6g | 121/89g | 76% | — | 🏉 79' 81' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 11/9g | 3/29g | 20% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (0·2·1·0·1·2·0·2·2·1) | 0/1g | 11/8g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' 76' 89' |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/7g | 37/80g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 0 in 1g | 11/10g (2·3·0·0·0·3·0·2·1·0) | 7/6g | 68/70g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/22g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/26g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/105g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 8/7g | 63/91g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/32g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/6g | 39/82g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/20g | 24% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/17g | 35/71g | 26% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/33g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 23/101g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | no games | 14/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·3·3·1·2) | 5/10g | 8/12g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 5/15g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Will McLachlan | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 92' |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 2 in 1g | 20/10g (0·4·3·2·1·2·5·0·1·2) | 7/6g | 8/8g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 1 in 1g | 14/10g (1·0·2·3·1·1·1·3·1·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 73% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $21.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $2.05 AI 73% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $26.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Petruccelle | FWD | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 50% | — | 🏉 98' |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·3·1·2·0) | 12/10g | 9/8g | 70% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 3/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McGovern | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/9g | 1/8g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·2·1·0·0) | 15/6g | 19/8g | 60% | — | 🏉 9' 48' 59' |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 79' 92' |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 0 in 1g | 5/8g (1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 5' 10' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.92 | 66% | 35 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 25.5 | $1.92 | 62% | 23 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 24 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.81 | 69% | 22 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 17 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 23 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 26 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly | 22.5 | $1.91 | 45% | 29 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| Jeremy McGovern | 20.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 20 ✓ |
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 24 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 17.5 | $1.90 | 39% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom Cole ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.78 | 72% | 13 ✓ |
| Reuben Ginbey | 16.5 | $1.96 | 56% | 11 ✓ |
| Jayden Hunt | 14.5 | $1.87 | 31% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)