# West Coast Eagles v Richmond — AFL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 56 – 105 Richmond

_Richmond put West Coast Eagles to the sword._

Half time: 30 – 39 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 26% / Richmond 74% · Optus Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Liam Ryan (5' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Jamie Cripps (18' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Williams (47'), Clay Hall (49'), Final quarter (30m 42s)Jobe Shanahan (60'), Harley Reid (67' ×2) · Richmond: Tim Taranto (22' ×3), Seth Campbell (35' Tipped ⚡), Toby Nankervis (42'), Jacob Hopper (57' ×2), Jonty Faull (70' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Sonsie (74'), Rhyan Mansell (77' ×3), Jayden Short (84'), Tom Sims (88' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 74% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.4 predicted → 49 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 56–105 Richmond in AFL Round 19 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond ran away from West Coast Eagles 105–56 at Optus Stadium. Richmond led 91–38 at three-quarter time and held on.

Richmond won the contested-possession battle 127 to 113. Richmond racked up the footy, finishing with 377 disposals to 347. Richmond used the ball more cleanly, hitting targets at 76.1%.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 15 | 15 | 8 | 18 | 56 |
| Richmond | 20 | 19 | 52 | 14 | 105 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| 347 | Disposals | **377** |
| 113 | Contested poss. | **127** |
| 36 | Clearances | 36 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **107** | Marks | 103 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| 48 | Tackles | **50** |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 37 |
| 50 | Intercepts | **57** |
| 69.7% | Disposal eff. | **76.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Richmond to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.4 but the actual margin was 49 points. Richmond led 30–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. The model went 2/3 on this match. Richmond covered the 6.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $2.30 (edge +30.4%) — model probability 73.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 159.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 13 · Predicted total: 152

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 118 · 172 | 100 · 151 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 79/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 15.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.6/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.9% | 65.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 61 | 33 · 64 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposals | 91/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.9/g | 17.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.6% | 69.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 19 | 16 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.8/g | 10.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.6% | 78.4% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.6/g (lg 3.59) +28% · Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.51) +18% · Midfielders 2.76/g (lg 2.39) +15%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.79/g (lg 0.51) +55% · Midfielders 3.46/g (lg 2.39) +45% · Key Forwards 4.59/g (lg 3.59) +28%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 16 in 12g | 13/10g (0·3·1·1·2·2·1·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 19/20g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 74% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 16 in 15g | 10/10g (1·1·2·3·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 19/13g | 96/80g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 15 in 14g | 9/10g (3·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 7/6g | 71/63g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 64' |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 11 in 14g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 8/5g | 5/14g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 11/19g | 40% | — | 🏉 67' 73' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·2·0·3·0·1·1) | 4/6g | 16/39g | 30% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 6/6g | 8/8g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 4 in 3g | 4/3g (1·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 3/12g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/36g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/17g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 9/11g | 20/58g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jack Petruccelle | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 5/4g | 32/43g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 1/61g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/78g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/29g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/22g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 21 in 17g | 10/10g (1·2·3·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 11 in 17g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/10g | 5/11g | 46% | — | 🏉 22' 27' 86' |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 10 in 14g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 2/3g | 3/4g | 54% | — | 🏉 77' 82' 85' |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 6/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 3/7g | 20% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/8g | 24% | — | 🏉 57' 66' |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/4g | 4/3g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 2/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 5/8g | 16% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 25% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Koschitzke | KF | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (2·0·2·1·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/3g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 81% | 18 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 23.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 31 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 22.5 | $1.83 | 63% | 27 ✗ |
| Liam Baker | 21.5 | $1.83 | 48% | 25 ✗ |
| Clay Hall | 18.5 | $1.93 | 56% | 19 ✗ |
| Ryan Maric | 17.5 | $1.92 | 34% | 17 ✓ |
| Brady Hough | 17.5 | $1.98 | 59% | 24 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 27.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 30 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 25.5 | $1.96 | 51% | 33 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 24.5 | $1.98 | 48% | 21 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 14 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 20.5 | $1.78 | 59% | 25 ✗ |
| Sam Banks | 20.5 | $1.78 | 47% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 18.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 25 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 17.5 | $1.98 | 60% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)