# Sydney Swans v North Melbourne — AFL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 84 – 53 North Melbourne

_Sydney Swans glide past North Melbourne._

Half time: 47 – 29 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 99% / North Melbourne 1% · SCG · Sat, 19 July, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Isaac Heeney (6' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Buller (9' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Errol Gulden (42'), Justin McInerney (61'), Final quarter (32m 0s)Isaac Heeney (65'), Chad Warner (69' Tipped ⚡), Braeden Campbell (75') · North Melbourne: Brynn Teakle (8'), Cooper Harvey (19' ×2), Harry Sheezel (48'), Jy Simpkin (77'), Colby McKercher (87')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 99% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 1% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 71.1 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 19, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 84–53 North Melbourne in AFL Round 19 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne will look at the tackle count and take some heart from it. Sixty-nine tackles to Sydney's 61 is a side that turned up to work, chasing hard and putting bodies on the contest all afternoon. Problem is, effort in defence doesn't put points on the board, and everywhere else the sheet reads ugly.

Start with the ruck. Ten hit-outs to Sydney's 80 isn't really a contest, it's a formality, and it left North's midfield starting nearly every centre bounce a step behind. That flowed straight into clearances, 37 to 52 in Sydney's favour, which is about as clean an explanation as you'll get for why the Swans kept winning first use of the ball.

Inside forward 50 it got worse. North managed just 5 marks inside the arc to Sydney's 18, which tells you the ball was either arriving in scrappy fashion or not arriving with any control at all. Add a disposal efficiency gap, 70.1% to 76.2%, and North were both getting the ball less and using it worse when they did. The one area they matched up, intercepts, 46 to 45, barely rates a mention when the rest of the ledger was running the other way.

Sydney's 84-53 win at the SCG was built steadily rather than in one hit. They led 21-15 at the first break, stretched it to 47-29 by half time, and still held a 12-point buffer at the last change, 51-39. North actually tightened things up in the third quarter, adding 10 points to Sydney's 4, the only stretch of the day where the ledger ran their way. It didn't last. Sydney answered with 33 points in the final term to North's 14, the kind of scoreboard shift that turns a contest into a rout.

The pre-match numbers had this shape coming. Sydney's midfield rated at 1067 against North's 921, their ruck 1048 to 964, and that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect: clearances and hit-outs. North's defence, rated 972 against Sydney's 982, was the one department close to even on paper, and it roughly held up, but a side can't defend its way out of losing every other battle on the day.

Form lines backed the gap too. Sydney came in averaging

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 21 | 26 | 4 | 33 | 84 |
| North Melbourne | 15 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 53 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **371** | Disposals | 325 |
| **126** | Contested poss. | 105 |
| **52** | Clearances | 37 |
| **50** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| **114** | Marks | 86 |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| 61 | Tackles | **69** |
| **80** | Hit-outs | 10 |
| 45 | Intercepts | **46** |
| **76.2%** | Disposal eff. | 70.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 99% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 71.1 but the actual margin was 31 points. The game's 137 points came in 58 points lower than the predicted 195. Sydney Swans led 47–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. The model went 2/3 on this match. Sydney Swans covered the 42.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.08 (edge +6.3%) — model probability 98.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 71 · Predicted total: 195

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 108 · 135 | 112 · 182 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 88/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.1/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 69.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 70 · 57 | 32 · 48 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.4/g | 19.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.7/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.7% | 73.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 19 | 52 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.1/g | 13.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77% | 78.1% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.51) +33% · Forwards 5.84/g (lg 4.46) +31% · Key Forwards 4.65/g (lg 3.59) +30%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Midfielders 2.42/g (lg 2.35) +3% · Forwards 4.36/g (lg 4.46) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 24 in 17g | 14/10g (1·2·1·1·1·1·3·0·1·3) | 17/11g | 93/78g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 23 in 17g | 16/10g (1·0·2·3·1·1·2·5·0·1) | 15/13g | 127/98g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 40' 78' 89' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 20 in 14g | 12/10g (1·1·1·1·2·1·1·0·3·1) | 9/6g | 43/37g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 72% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 16 in 17g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 9/5g | 45/50g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 11 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 11/41g | 36% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 10 in 17g | 9/10g (2·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·2·1) | 2/6g | 12/22g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 23/62g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·3) | 3/15g | 21/116g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 2/11g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 5 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 6/12g | 6/26g | 24% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/8g | 22/57g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 3/5g | 2/11g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 18/47g | 34% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 3 in 3g | 3/4g (0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 51' |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | FWD | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/5g | 30/42g | 48% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 11/78g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 6/115g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 17/87g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/47g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 16/32g | 24% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 32 in 17g | 21/10g (2·2·4·3·2·0·3·0·2·3) | 11/8g | 3/3g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 28 in 14g | 18/10g (2·3·3·1·3·0·2·1·1·2) | 3/4g | 0/1g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 79% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 16 in 16g | 10/10g (1·0·2·2·0·0·1·1·0·3) | 17/13g | 4/4g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 71% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 3/3g | 42% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 78/116g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | 5 in 2g | 6/5g (1·0·0·1·4) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | 🏉 19' 80' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/18g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Brynn Teakle | RUC | no games | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 52% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Callum Coleman-Jones | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Phillips | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zac Banch | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.89 | 79% | 20 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 23.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 34 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 74% | 22 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 26 ✗ |
| Callum Mills | 22.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| Justin McInerney | 20.5 | $1.92 | 49% | 22 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 75% | 19 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 64% | 29 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 26.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 27 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.83 | 75% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 26 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.83 | 54% | 27 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 23.5 | $1.82 | 58% | 14 ✓ |
| Tom Powell | 22.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 24 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 18.5 | $1.79 | 44% | 28 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens | 18.5 | $1.80 | 53% | 10 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)