AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 99% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 71.1 but the actual margin was 31 points. The game's 137 points came in 58 points lower than the predicted 195. Sydney Swans led 47–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
99%
North Melbourne
1%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 99%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Sydney Swans carry a 91-point ELO rating advantage (1527 vs 1436). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 71.1 points with a combined total of 195.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.08
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.3%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans -42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.3%
Total Points
Over 174.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W W W L | 94.1 |
North Melbourne | W L L L L | 75.0 |
Avg Conceded
67.5
Sydney Swans
70.9
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
-0.9
Sydney Swans
11.9
North Melbourne
Disposals
376.0
Sydney Swans
335.9
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.3
Sydney Swans
48.7
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
99%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 71 points
Predicted total: 195 · Line: +71.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.25
Team Effectiveness
+0.27
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.