# Hawthorn v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 87 – 49 Port Adelaide

_Hawthorn see off Port Adelaide._

Half time: 40 – 27 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 81% / Port Adelaide 19% · University of Tasmania Stadium · Sat, 19 July, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Dylan Moore (14' ×2), Calsher Dear (27' Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (46' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (48' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Macdonald (75'), Jarman Impey (80' ×3), Jack Ginnivan (88' Tipped ⚡) · Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (2' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Lukosius (3'), Will Lorenz (11'), Ollie Lord (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 81% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 31.2 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 87–49 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 19 at University of Tasmania Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty nine point seven per cent. That's how often Hawthorn hit a target with ball in hand, against 48.9% for Port Adelaide, and it's the number that explains an 87 to 49 result at University of Tasmania Stadium. Ten percentage points of disposal efficiency doesn't sound like much until you watch it compound for four quarters. Hawthorn had it.

The margin blew out to 38, but it wasn't one avalanche. Hawthorn led 20 to 20 at quarter time, so Port Adelaide were right in it early. By half time it was 40 to 27, and by three quarter time 54 to 42. Then Hawthorn scored 33 to Port Adelaide's 7 in the last quarter to turn a workable deficit into a rout. That's where the clean disposal use finally told, when Port Adelaide needed it least.

The rest of the stat sheet just backs up what the efficiency number already said. Hawthorn won contested possession 174 to 146 and doubled up on hit-outs, 58 to 44, which lines up with the pre-match ruck rating of 1098 to 1025 in their favour. First use of the ball, more often, cleaner. Fairly simple equation.

Inside 50s told the same story from another angle: 65 to 44. Marks inside 50 went 10 to 7, marks overall 54 to 30. Hawthorn weren't just getting the ball forward more, they were taking it in with control rather than just bombing it long and hoping. Intercepts, 93 to 84, show they were reading Port Adelaide's ball movement well enough to turn it straight back the other way.

Curiously, Port Adelaide actually won the clearance count, 51 to 50, and edged tackles, 100 to 99. On paper that's two of the game's grunt-work categories going their way. Didn't matter. Winning the coalface battle counts for a lot less when the side you're up against is disposing of the ball at a rate ten points cleaner and turning first use into repeat forward entries.

Port Adelaide's recent form had them winning more often over their last five and conceding fewer points on average than Hawthorn, so this wasn't a case of a form side getting rolled by another. It's more that Hawthorn's forward and defensive ratings, 1077 and 1080 against 1072 and 1046, showed up exactly where they needed to, and the ruck advantage fed everything else.

Alphr's model had Hawthorn at 81% to win and picked the margin at 31.2, not far off the actual 38. It also pegged the total at 158, which ran 22 points hot against the 136 that actually went up on the board, a low scoring shootout dressed as a high one. Two out of three calls landed, and Hawthorn covered the 32.5 point line with room to spare. Not a bad read, all up, even if the model was a touch generous with the total.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 20 | 20 | 14 | 33 | 87 |
| Port Adelaide | 20 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 49 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **389** | Disposals | 307 |
| **174** | Contested poss. | 146 |
| 50 | Clearances | **51** |
| **65** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| **54** | Marks | 30 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| 99 | Tackles | **100** |
| **58** | Hit-outs | 44 |
| **93** | Intercepts | 84 |
| **59.7%** | Disposal eff. | 48.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 81% probability. The predicted margin of 31.2 was reasonable against the actual 38-point result. The game's 136 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 158. Hawthorn led 40–27 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 2/3 on this match. Hawthorn covered the 32.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.15 (edge -6.0%) — model probability 81.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -32.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 150.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 31 · Predicted total: 158

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 157 · 122 | 127 · 137 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.1/g | 16.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.9/g | 8.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67% | 69.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 46 | 34 · 53 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.2/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 69.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 16 | 30 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.8/g | 12.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.4% | 76.2% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.47/g (lg 1.28) +15% · Forwards 4.49/g (lg 4.43) +1% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.4/g (lg 1.28) +9% · Midfielders 2.4/g (lg 2.39) +0% · Key Forwards 3.45/g (lg 3.59) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at University of Tasmania Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 39 in 14g | 26/10g (4·3·3·0·2·1·2·7·3·1) | 39/15g | 70/37g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 55' 92' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 24 in 16g | 16/10g (1·3·2·3·0·1·0·3·2·1) | 3/3g | 10/6g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 19 in 16g | 15/10g (2·1·2·1·3·2·0·2·1·1) | 6/5g | 5/6g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 15 in 15g | 10/10g (0·0·0·3·0·1·2·2·1·1) | 2/4g | 14/13g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 14 in 17g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/6g | 23/20g | 68% | — | 🏉 14' 83' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 2/33g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 8/17g | 44% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 14/27g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/9g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 4/20g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 2/7g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 3 in 2g | 17/10g (0·2·0·3·3·2·3·1·0·3) | 2/2g | 5/4g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/21g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 8/18g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 4/24g | 8% | — | 🏉 80' 85' 86' |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/18g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | no games | 17/10g (0·3·4·2·2·1·1·1·1·2) | 8/2g | 20/10g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 45 in 17g | 28/10g (1·2·1·3·1·7·1·5·4·3) | 8/6g | 0/0g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 82' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 18 in 16g | 10/10g (0·2·1·0·0·2·1·2·0·2) | 5/10g | 0/2g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 12 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·3·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.77 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 4 in 4g | 11/10g (1·2·2·0·0·2·1·0·3·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 64% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/16g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Jackson | FWD | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Williams | FWD | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Mani Liddy | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Lorenz | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 11' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 23.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 11 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 21.5 | $1.88 | 48% | 22 ✗ |
| James Worpel | 20.5 | $1.79 | 55% | 26 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 18.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 21 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.83 | 52% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 18.5 | $1.83 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey | 18.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 26 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 16.5 | $1.98 | 55% | 19 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.94 | 70% | 18 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.83 | 76% | 26 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 77% | 25 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $2.00 | 73% | 12 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 20.5 | $1.94 | 51% | 15 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 18.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 26 ✗ |
| Joe Richards ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.98 | 66% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)