AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 65.6 but the actual margin was 31 points. Total score prediction of 193 was close to the actual 195, within 2 points. Geelong Cats led 62–47 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
98%
St Kilda
2%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 65.6 points with a combined total of 193.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.12
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.7%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -36.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.7%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W W W L L | 80.3 |
St Kilda | W W W L L | 89.3 |
Avg Conceded
96.3
Geelong Cats
93.4
St Kilda
Avg Margin
9.0
Geelong Cats
2.6
St Kilda
Disposals
347.2
Geelong Cats
354.2
St Kilda
Inside 50s
43.7
Geelong Cats
55.6
St Kilda
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Kilda hold the ELO advantage (1510 vs 1490), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.12).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 66 points
Predicted total: 193 · Line: +65.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.02
Team Effectiveness
+0.30
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.