# Geelong Cats v St Kilda — AFL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 113 – 82 St Kilda

_Geelong Cats claw past St Kilda._

Half time: 62 – 47 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 98% / St Kilda 2% · GMHBA Stadium · Sun, 20 July, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Jack Martin (10' ×2 1st), Shaun Mannagh (14' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Dangerfield (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tyson Stengle (31' Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Cameron (42' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Oliver Dempsey (81' Tipped ⚡), Brad Close (88'), Jack Bowes (85') · St Kilda: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (27' ×2), Mitch Owens (33' ×2), Mason Wood (41' ×2), Jack Higgins (49' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cooper Sharman (73' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Liam Henry (94'), Rowan Marshall (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 98% | Won |
| St Kilda | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 65.6 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 113–82 St Kilda in AFL Round 19 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at GMHBA Stadium had Geelong Cats up 62-47, a 15-point buffer that felt more like a formality than a fight. It wasn't. St Kilda actually won the second term outright, and for a while there the contest had some teeth in it.

Then the third quarter happened. Geelong Cats piled on 36 points to St Kilda's 14 in that term alone, stretching the margin out to 37 by the three-quarter time siren, 98-61. That's the passage that decided it. St Kilda clawed back some respectability in the last quarter, outscoring the home side 21-15, but 21 points with the game already gone is just tidying up. Final score: Geelong Cats 113, St Kilda 82. A 31-point win, wrapped around a third term that buried the visitors.

The disposal count was tight, 359 to 352, but efficiency wasn't. Geelong Cats hit targets at 78.9 per cent against St Kilda's 69.7, and when you're going inside 50 fifty-five times to forty-five, clean hands matter more than raw volume. St Kilda actually won the ball-winning battle where it's supposed to count, 132 contested possessions to 123 and 38 clearances to 34, which lines up with their midfield rating going in at 982 against Geelong Cats's 953. They just couldn't turn that midfield edge into scoreboard pressure often enough.

Part of that comes down to what happened around the stoppages. Geelong Cats's ruck rated marginally behind St Kilda's pre-match, 949 to 953, but on the day they won hit-outs 48 to 37. Advantage at the source tends to flow forward, and it did: 96 marks to 87, 64 intercepts to 55, and 76 tackles to St Kilda's 61. That's a side taking the ball off St Kilda and not giving second use of it back, which is a fair description of how a 15-point half-time lead turned into a 37-point three-quarter-time lead.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 36 | 26 | 36 | 15 | 113 |
| St Kilda | 14 | 33 | 14 | 21 | 82 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **359** | Disposals | 352 |
| 123 | Contested poss. | **132** |
| 34 | Clearances | **38** |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **96** | Marks | 87 |
| 15 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| **76** | Tackles | 61 |
| **48** | Hit-outs | 37 |
| **64** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **78.9%** | Disposal eff. | 69.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 65.6 but the actual margin was 31 points. Total score prediction of 193 was close to the actual 195, within 2 points. Geelong Cats led 62–47 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.12 (edge +8.7%) — model probability 98.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -36.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 66 · Predicted total: 193

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 179 · 132 | 124 · 150 |
| Goal Assists | 6.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 71/g |
| Inside 50s | 22/g | 12.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.4/g | 6.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.5% | 69.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 61 · 42 | 47 · 67 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 166/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.3/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.2% | 69.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 18 | 26 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 11/g | 12.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.7% | 76.9% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.39) +4% · Key Forwards 3.42/g (lg 3.59) -5% · Forwards 4.11/g (lg 4.42) -7%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.85/g (lg 3.59) +7% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0% · Forwards 4.34/g (lg 4.42) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 53 in 17g | 36/10g (1·2·7·6·5·0·6·4·4·1) | 40/17g | 107/41g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.88 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' 51' 68' 96' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 27 in 17g | 22/10g (1·1·1·5·1·0·4·1·3·5) | 3/3g | 24/15g | 79% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 23 in 17g | 12/10g (2·2·2·1·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 6/3g | 17/20g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 21 in 15g | 10/10g (3·1·1·1·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 11/16g | 71/68g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 87' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 20 in 15g | 13/10g (0·1·0·2·1·2·2·4·1·0) | 8/8g | 62/31g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 17 in 14g | 13/10g (2·2·1·2·1·0·3·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 9/11g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 20' 84' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 14 in 17g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·1) | 6/9g | 43/41g | 70% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·2·1) | 0/7g | 9/21g | 46% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 9 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/7g | 13/35g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·0·1) | 2/8g | 40/51g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 20/93g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 25/54g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 10/49g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/30g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 1 in 5g | 8/10g (2·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 4/6g | 60% | — | 🏉 10' 46' |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/48g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 5/42g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 13/57g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/64g | 2% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 33 in 17g | 13/10g (1·2·5·0·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 13/11g | 3/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' 58' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 22 in 15g | 15/10g (4·2·1·3·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 8/6g | 3/3g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' 100' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 22 in 16g | 11/10g (3·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·1·2) | 5/5g | 0/2g | 64% | — | 🏉 33' 44' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 19 in 17g | 12/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·1·1·3·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 16 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·3·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 2/5g | 48% | — | 🏉 41' 65' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 9 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 4/3g | 2/1g | 49% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 9 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 27' 71' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 8 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 1/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 5/11g | 2/5g | 42% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/22g | 2/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/14g | 2/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/16g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Max Heath | RUC | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 28.5 | $1.93 | 57% | 23 ✓ |
| Max Holmes | 25.5 | $1.83 | 58% | 32 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 77% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 74% | 12 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 18.5 | $1.77 | 66% | 22 ✗ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 17.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Zach Guthrie ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 70% | 16 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 24 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 28.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 36 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair | 25.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 33 ✗ |
| Jack Macrae | 24.5 | $1.93 | 43% | 19 ✓ |
| Jack Steele | 22.5 | $1.85 | 52% | 21 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 21.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 22 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 20.5 | $1.90 | 44% | 23 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 16 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall | 18.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)