AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 86% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 48 points. GWS GIANTS led 14–51 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 48. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
14%
GWS GIANTS
86%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 86%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. Essendon are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO, but GWS GIANTS counter with Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO which tips the scales. Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Essendon. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 7.1 points with a combined total of 147.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.10
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.2%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.2%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | W W L L L | 88.5 |
GWS GIANTS | W W W L L | 98.3 |
Avg Conceded
68.9
Essendon
66.9
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
22.6
Essendon
27.4
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
353.2
Essendon
351.7
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
54.8
Essendon
49.3
GWS GIANTS
ELO–Market Disagreement
Essendon hold the ELO advantage (1538 vs 1529), but the market favours GWS GIANTS (@1.10).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
86%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 147 · Line: -7.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.13
Team Effectiveness
-0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.