# Essendon v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 56 – 104 GWS GIANTS

_GWS GIANTS run riot over Essendon._

Half time: 14 – 51 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 14% / GWS GIANTS 86% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 17 July, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Liam McMahon (53' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Kako (69'), Archie Perkins (80'), Peter Wright (91' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Xavier Duursma (70') · GWS GIANTS: Toby Greene (12' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Aaron Cadman (19' Tipped ⚡), Max Gruzewski (40' ×2), Jake Stringer (45' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jake Riccardi (47' Tipped ⚡), Kieren Briggs (51'), Tom Green (65'), Callum Brown (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Xavier OHalloran (67'), Darcy Jones (89')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 86% | Won |
| Essendon | 14% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.1 predicted → 48 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 56–104 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 19 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Marks: 115 to 76. That gap, forty extra uncontested and contested grabs for GWS GIANTS, tells you almost everything about how they beat Essendon 104–56 at Marvel Stadium.

It was 12–5 at quarter time, nothing alarming yet. Then the wheels came off. By half time it was 51–14, and Essendon never got within shouting distance again, going into the last change down 83–40 before the final quarter added a bit of gloss to a scoreline already decided.

The marks gap explains why. When you're taking 115 marks to 76, you're controlling territory without giving the opposition a sniff of the ball in dispute. GWS GIANTS backed that up around the contest too, winning clearances 41–31 and hit-outs 42–25. Essendon's ruck rating going in was actually the stronger one on paper, 1090 to 1054, but on the day the Giants owned that battle by seventeen hit-outs. That's not a small miss.

Essendon actually won the inside 50 count, 57 to 53, and led on tackles, 49 to 41, so it's not as if they didn't have the footy at times or work hard for it. But GWS GIANTS turned their territory into scoreboard pressure far more efficiently, helped by those extra marks inside 50, 16 to 14, and by simply having more the ball overall, 378 disposals to 324. Essendon's disposal efficiency was actually the better number, 73.1% to 71.0%, which suggests when they did have it, they used it well. There just wasn't enough of it.

The form lines pointed this way before a ball was bounced. GWS GIANTS came in having averaged 98.3 points a game across their last five to Essendon's 88.5, and their forward rating, 1072 to 983, was the biggest gap on the sheet. That forward strength showed up exactly where you'd expect, in a marking count that buried Essendon inside its own defensive fifty.

Essendon's edges, such as they were, sat in defence (1023 to 980) and midfield (1022 to 987) on the pre-match ratings. Neither showed up on the scoreboard. A defence rated above its opponent conceded 104, and a midfield rated above its opponent lost the clearance count by ten. Ratings tell you about competitiveness, not about the day itself.

Alphr's model called GWS GIANTS at 86% and got the winner right without much fuss. The margin was a different story: 7.1 points predicted, 48 delivered. A gap of that size isn't a rounding error, it's a full recalibration for next time. Still, on the big question, winner, total shape of the game, three from three landed clean.

Essendon will look at the inside 50 and tackle numbers and wonder how a game they competed for so hard in those columns got away by 48. The answer's sitting in the marking column and the ruck stats. When one side owns the air and the hit-outs like that, the rest of the sheet is just noise.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 5 | 9 | 26 | 16 | 56 |
| GWS GIANTS | 12 | 39 | 32 | 21 | 104 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 324 | Disposals | **378** |
| 128 | Contested poss. | **136** |
| 31 | Clearances | **41** |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 53 |
| 76 | Marks | **115** |
| 14 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| **49** | Tackles | 41 |
| 25 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| **75** | Intercepts | 69 |
| **73.1%** | Disposal eff. | 71.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 86% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 48 points. GWS GIANTS led 14–51 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 48. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.10 (edge -5.2%) — model probability 85.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +40.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 7 · Predicted total: 147

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 88 · 138 | 180 · 115 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 101/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.9/g | 19.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.1/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 65.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 62 · 50 | 39 · 54 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 151/g | 141/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.9/g | 21.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.7% | 71.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 27 | 4 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.1/g | 10/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 80.7% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.24/g (lg 1.28) -3% · Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.51) -4% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.43) -6%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.55/g (lg 1.28) +21% · Forwards 4.97/g (lg 4.43) +12% · Key Forwards 3.84/g (lg 3.59) +7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 20 in 12g | 12/10g (0·0·1·2·2·3·2·1·1·0) | 7/9g | 75/37g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' 73' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 12 in 14g | 8/10g (1·3·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 27/32g | 44% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 50% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 9/9g | 77/89g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 16g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 30/86g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 7 in 14g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 12/31g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/19g | 40% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Archer May | KF | 6 in 4g | 6/4g (0·2·3·1) | 0/0g | 3/1g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (3·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 8/8g | 24/36g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 12/46g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 16/45g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 8/60g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 12/52g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/27g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam McMahon | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Oskar Smartt | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Vigo Visentini | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 32 in 17g | 25/10g (2·1·1·2·2·1·5·3·2·6) | 0/1g | 3/3g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 29 in 16g | 15/10g (2·0·1·1·3·1·0·2·3·2) | 20/12g | 37/29g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' 71' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 17 in 15g | 15/10g (0·0·2·3·3·0·3·2·1·1) | 1/1g | 4/5g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 86' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 17 in 13g | 15/10g (3·1·0·3·2·2·0·2·1·1) | 2/5g | 16/10g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 15 in 10g | 15/10g (0·0·2·1·0·3·2·2·1·4) | 10/3g | 172/85g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 72' 89' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 14 in 16g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 65% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/9g | 42% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/3g | 4/6g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 2/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 10/13g | 16/23g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/8g | 14% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 2 in 3g | 5/7g (2·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 40' 43' |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/11g | 13/19g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 9/26g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 27.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 79% | 11 ✓ |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 17 ✓ |
| Dylan Shiel ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 21 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 20 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 20.5 | $1.95 | 51% | 22 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma | 19.5 | $1.88 | 56% | 20 ✗ |
| Jordan Ridley ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 71% | 23 ✗ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 32.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 30 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash | 29.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 27 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan | 29.5 | $1.85 | 60% | 33 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.93 | 64% | 29 ✗ |
| Connor Idun | 19.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 21 ✗ |
| Xavier O'Halloran ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 19 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 17.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 23 ✗ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.83 | 49% | 17 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)