AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 78% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.6 but the actual margin was 1 points. Total score prediction of 157 was close to the actual 157, within 0 points. Fremantle trailed 54–47 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 78–79. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
22%
Fremantle
78%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. Collingwood are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Fremantle counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Collingwood carry a 41-point ELO rating advantage (1544 vs 1503). Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 15.6 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @3.20
Winner ✓
Edge
+47.1%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -17.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+47.1%
Total Points
Under 163.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | W W L L L | 97.5 |
Fremantle | W W W W L | 95.3 |
Avg Conceded
86.7
Collingwood
85.9
Fremantle
Avg Margin
23.7
Collingwood
9.1
Fremantle
Disposals
341.5
Collingwood
360.9
Fremantle
Inside 50s
44.0
Collingwood
57.4
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
78%
Fremantle predicted to win by 16 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: -15.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.04
Team Effectiveness
-0.29
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.