# Collingwood v Fremantle — AFL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 78 – 79 Fremantle

_Fremantle roar back to stun Collingwood._

Half time: 54 – 47 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 22% / Fremantle 78% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Brody Mihocek (7' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Nick Daicos (17'), Jamie Elliott (40' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lachie Schultz (47'), Steele Sidebottom (60'), Final quarter (32m 48s)Will Hoskin-Elliott (67'), Edward Allan (68') · Fremantle: Patrick Voss (13' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Caleb Serong (26'), Jye Amiss (52' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sean Darcy (55'), Jaeger OMeara (71'), Luke Jackson (89')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 78% | Won |
| Collingwood | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.6 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood vs Fremantle Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 19, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 78–79 Fremantle in AFL Round 19 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle 79, Collingwood 78. One point separated them on the final siren. But rewind to three-quarter time and Collingwood led by nine, 62 to 53. That's not a game that stayed tight all day. That's a game that got away from someone in the last twenty minutes.

The arc tells the story better than the final margin does. Fremantle actually led at quarter time, 26 to 20. Collingwood hit back to lead 54 to 47 at half time and stretched that to nine points by the last change. Then the final quarter happened, and whatever Collingwood had been doing well for three quarters stopped working long enough for Fremantle to find the points they needed and steal it by a single point.

Look at the stat sheet and you'd think Collingwood won comfortably. More clearances, 43 to 39. More than fifty per cent more inside 50s, 63 to 40. More tackles, 86 to 65. More hit-outs, 49 to 39. More intercepts, 76 to 62. That's a side that had the ball more often, applied more pressure, and controlled the ruck contest. And they still lost.

The gap is in what Fremantle did with less. Their disposal efficiency was 73.1 per cent against Collingwood's 64.7, a serious difference given the two sides were level on total disposals, 352 to 350. Add marks, 83 to 59, and marks inside 50 edging Collingwood's way too, 9 to 8, and you've got a team that didn't need as much territory because they made the territory they had count. Collingwood went inside 50 63 times and managed only 8 marks in that area. Fremantle went inside 50 just 40 times and still scored more.

The pre-match positional ratings had Collingwood rated stronger everywhere: ruck 1076 to 984, defence 1041 to 961, forwards 1035 to 999, midfield 1002 to 954. That lines up neatly with the clearance, hit-out and intercept numbers. Where it doesn't line up is the scoreboard, and that comes down to conversion and clean hands under pressure, not raw dominance in the areas the ratings measure.

Form lines going in had painted a mixed picture too. Collingwood had averaged 97.5 points a game across their last five outings with a healthy average winning margin, while Fremantle had actually won more of their recent matches despite the lower scoring average. Neither trend fully explains a one-point classic decided in the last quarter, which is usually the point.

Alphr's model called Fremantle to win at 78 per cent probability, and got that right. It backed Collingwood as the higher-rated side overall, 1544 to 1503, but still favoured the Dockers to cause the upset. The margin was where the model missed badly, tipping Fremantle by 15.6 when the actual result was decided by a single point. The total score prediction fared much better: 157 points forecast, 157 points delivered, dead on.

So the ledger reads: correct winner, wrong margin, spot-on total. Three model calls, mixed results, and a match that swung on twenty minutes of football that the stat sheet barely explains. Collingwood did almost everything more often. Fremantle did enough of it better, right when it mattered.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 20 | 34 | 8 | 16 | 78 |
| Fremantle | 26 | 21 | 6 | 26 | 79 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 350 | Disposals | **352** |
| **151** | Contested poss. | 131 |
| **43** | Clearances | 39 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| 59 | Marks | **83** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **9** |
| **86** | Tackles | 65 |
| **49** | Hit-outs | 39 |
| **76** | Intercepts | 62 |
| 64.7% | Disposal eff. | **73.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 78% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.6 but the actual margin was 1 points. Total score prediction of 157 was close to the actual 157, within 0 points. Fremantle trailed 54–47 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 78–79. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $3.20 (edge +47.1%) — model probability 78.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -17.5 @ $1.91 (edge +47.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 163.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 16 · Predicted total: 157

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 177 · 101 | 131 · 130 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 77/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.5/g | 15.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.2/g | 7.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 68.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 34 · 49 | 63 · 46 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 157/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.1/g | 28.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68% | 70.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 15 | 14 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.1/g | 9.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.4% | 81.1% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.37/g (lg 2.36) +0% · Key Forwards 3.56/g (lg 3.59) -1% · Forwards 4.08/g (lg 4.46) -9%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.28) -6% · Forwards 4.02/g (lg 4.46) -10% · Midfielders 2.11/g (lg 2.36) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 44 in 17g | 29/10g (1·6·1·5·5·1·2·1·4·3) | 19/11g | 208/128g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.12 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 43' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 28 in 14g | 20/10g (2·1·4·1·2·4·1·1·2·2) | 15/8g | 146/87g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 11' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 16 in 12g | 13/10g (1·0·1·3·0·2·2·0·4·0) | 14/11g | 40/34g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 10 in 17g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 28/53g | 62% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 16/12g | 103/114g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 7 in 17g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 10/14g | 50/148g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2·0) | 4/8g | 27/52g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 100/176g | 24% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 40/54g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 6 in 8g | 8/10g (2·0·0·1·2·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 29/25g | 60% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 5/17g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 38/64g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/11g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 14/133g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/8g | 30/81g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/13g | 80/179g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 80/83g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Oleg Markov | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/33g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Dean | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 39/107g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 5% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/70g | 4% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 32 in 17g | 12/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·3·3·2·1) | 7/4g | 16/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 22 in 17g | 11/10g (0·1·3·1·1·0·2·0·1·2) | 3/4g | 7/7g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.54 AI 60% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 22 in 16g | 14/10g (0·1·3·1·3·1·2·1·0·2) | 7/7g | 91/70g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 20 in 17g | 9/10g (2·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/4g | 16/7g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' 75' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 18 in 17g | 10/10g (0·1·1·4·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 16 in 13g | 14/10g (1·2·1·1·3·3·1·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 83% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.52 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $17.50 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' 19' 27' 37' 88' 79' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 13 in 14g | 10/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·3·2·2·0) | 5/6g | 15/28g | 56% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·3) | 5/8g | 3/10g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 7/14g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 1/9g | 30% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 5/9g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 4 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 4/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/8g | 7/9g | 30% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/10g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/41g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 18/48g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 25 ✓ |
| Nick Daicos | 26.5 | $1.91 | 44% | 43 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 22.5 | $1.85 | 41% | 21 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 20.5 | $1.95 | 41% | 17 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 19 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 18.5 | $1.91 | 41% | 23 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron | 17.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 20 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 14 ✓ |
| Lachie Schultz | 13.5 | $1.79 | 53% | 10 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 21 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 37 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 24 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.91 | 49% | 25 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 19.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 14 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 13 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 18.5 | $1.74 | 58% | 14 ✓ |
| Corey Wagner | 15.5 | $1.94 | 60% | 10 ✓ |
| Sam Switkowski ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.84 | 67% | 14 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid | 13.5 | $1.83 | 51% | 14 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)