# Carlton v Melbourne — AFL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 78 – 70 Melbourne

_Carlton scrape past Melbourne in a tight one._

Half time: 40 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 57% / Melbourne 43% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Charlie Curnow (7' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ashton Moir (9' ×3), Adam Cerra (30'), Francis Evans (74'), Flynn Young (86'), Sam Docherty (68'), Matt Carroll (69') · Melbourne: Kysaiah Pickett (5' ×5 1st Tipped 🎯), Jake Melksham (11' Tipped ⚡), Bayley Fritsch (65' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Matthew Jefferson (82' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 57% | Won |
| Melbourne | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 78–70 Melbourne in AFL Round 19 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton's second quarter is where this game was actually won. Up just eight points at the first change, they slammed on fourteen points to three across the second term and turned that into a nineteen-point break at half-time. Melbourne spent the rest of the afternoon chasing it down, and while they eventually got their own purple patch, it came too late to matter.

Final score: Carlton 78, Melbourne 70. The breakdown by quarter tells the story cleanly. Quarter-time had Carlton up 26-18. Half-time was 40-21. By three-quarter time it was 59-49. Melbourne then won the last term too, 21-19, and the third quarter before that, 28-19, but starting the final stretch eight points down is a hole a strong last quarter doesn't always fill.

That third-quarter fightback wasn't nothing. Melbourne outscored Carlton by nine points in the term, clawing back some of the second-quarter damage and making the finish nervier than the raw margin suggests. But it was chasing a gap that had already been set, and Carlton had enough in the tank across the last two quarters combined to keep the ledger in their favour.

Look at the stat sheet on its own and you'd assume Melbourne won this. They out-disposed Carlton 385 to 305, won the contested possession count 145 to 124, took marks at a much higher rate, 104 to 77, and went inside 50 more often too, 58 times to 50. Their disposal efficiency was better, 68.7 per cent to 66.9, and they won the intercept count 83 to 79. By most measures of who had the ball more and used it better, Melbourne had the better night.

Carlton won the count that actually decides scoreboard pressure. They took the ball at the clearance, 37 to 34, converted it more often inside 50 with 10 marks there to Melbourne's nine, and tackled harder, 48 to 44. Winning it at the source and finishing it off in the forward line mattered more here than winning it in general play out on the wing.

The ruck battle is the strangest number of the lot. Carlton went in rated stronger in that department, 1102 to 965, yet got beaten up around the contest all day, losing hit-outs 26 to 38.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 26 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 78 |
| Melbourne | 18 | 3 | 28 | 21 | 70 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 305 | Disposals | **385** |
| 124 | Contested poss. | **145** |
| **37** | Clearances | 34 |
| 50 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 77 | Marks | **104** |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **48** | Tackles | 44 |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **38** |
| 79 | Intercepts | **83** |
| 66.9% | Disposal eff. | **68.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 8 points. Total score prediction of 150 was close to the actual 148, within 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 162.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $2.62 (edge +19.3%) — model probability 57.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 5 · Predicted total: 150

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 108 · 132 | 109 · 148 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 86/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.2/g | 19.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.7/g | 6.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.8% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 47 · 48 | 68 · 44 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 167/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.5/g | 21.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 68.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 26 | 16 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.4/g | 11.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.8% | 81.4% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.51) +29% · Defenders 1.51/g (lg 1.28) +18% · Midfielders 2.25/g (lg 2.39) -6%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Forwards 4.55/g (lg 4.42) +3% · Defenders 1.28/g (lg 1.28) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 27 in 16g | 14/10g (2·3·3·3·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/7g | 110/55g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 87' |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 18 in 13g | 15/10g (0·0·4·1·2·2·1·1·3·1) | 4/5g | 16/34g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 13 in 17g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·2·0) | 2/4g | 15/23g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 59% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (4·2·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 10/20g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 12 in 17g | 7/10g (2·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/13g | 39/86g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 9 in 15g | 8/10g (0·2·0·2·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 17/34g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Will White | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/9g (0·1·3·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 56% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 6 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 14/46g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/4g | 16/33g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/22g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 11/35g | 24% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 9/66g | 32% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2) | 2/6g | 5/30g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 3/62g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | 1 in 3g | 3/5g (1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 60% | — | 🏉 9' 58' 80' |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/8g | 35% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Harry O'Farrell | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 7/73g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/30g | 2% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 30 in 14g | 22/10g (1·2·2·5·0·3·3·3·2·1) | 8/6g | 94/59g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 17' 67' 72' 81' |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 25 in 13g | 24/10g (0·1·4·3·1·1·0·5·4·5) | 15/13g | 93/86g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 22 in 16g | 17/10g (2·0·1·2·1·3·2·2·1·3) | 12/8g | 132/80g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' 61' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 14 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 17/12g | 95/103g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 13 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/5g | 36/43g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·2·1) | 2/3g | 42/32g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 69% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/7g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 27/69g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 7 in 16g | 3/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/8g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 11/16g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 8/13g | 61/121g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 23/103g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 3 in 8g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/11g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Jefferson | KF | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 5/60g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/19g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 34/117g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/41g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 16/99g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 17/13g | 78/128g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/34g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 6/67g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.92 | 68% | 19 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.98 | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 23.5 | $1.83 | 51% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Docherty | 21.5 | $1.95 | 46% | 18 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 18.5 | $1.93 | 51% | 14 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 18.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 17 ✓ |
| Cooper Lord | 16.5 | $1.82 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes | 16.5 | $1.91 | 48% | 13 ✓ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca | 26.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 23 ✓ |
| Clayton Oliver | 23.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 26 ✗ |
| Jack Viney | 22.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 21 ✓ |
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers | 21.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 27 ✗ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 23 ✗ |
| Christian Salem | 20.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Harvey Langford | 19.5 | $1.84 | 49% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)