Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
57%
Melbourne
43%
AI Match Overview
Carlton hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 43%. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO — but Carlton counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Melbourne carry a 43-point ELO rating advantage (1380 vs 1337). The margin model predicts Melbourne by 4.8 points with a combined total of 150.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @2.62
Winner ✓
Edge
+19.3%
Line / Spread
Melbourne +11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.3%
Total Points
Under 162.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | WLLLL | 68.8 |
Melbourne | WLLLL | 84.0 |
Avg Conceded
92.8
Carlton
88.4
Melbourne
Avg Margin
-24.0
Carlton
-4.4
Melbourne
Disposals
354.2
Carlton
351.4
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Carlton predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 150 · Line: -4.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.12
Team Effectiveness
-0.29
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.