AFL | Round 19

alphr.com.au

Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
COLCOL
FREFRE
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
WCEWCE
RICRIC
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
CARCAR
MELMEL
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
ADEADE
GCSGCS
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
GEEGEE
STKSTK
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
SYDSYD
NORNOR
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
HAWHAW
PORPOR
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
ESSESS
GWSGWS
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
BRIBRI
WBDWBD
CAR
Carlton
VS
MEL
Melbourne
MCG • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

57%CarltonFavourite

Carlton

57%

Melbourne

43%

✨

AI Match Overview

Carlton hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Carlton ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Carlton carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1589 vs 1514). Recent form favours Carlton with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 4.8 points with a combined total of 150.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Carlton to Win @2.62

Winner ✓

Edge

+19.3%

✓

Line / Spread

Melbourne +11.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+19.3%

✗

Total Points

Under 162.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Carlton
W
W
W
L
L
107.9
Melbourne
W
W
L
L
L
107.4

Avg Conceded

78.7

Carlton

87.3

Melbourne

Avg Margin

26.6

Carlton

1.4

Melbourne

Disposals

339.3

Carlton

334.0

Melbourne

Inside 50s

51.0

Carlton

57.0

Melbourne

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1589 vs 1514), but the market favours Melbourne (@1.62).

The model sides with ELO, Carlton predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAR
1589Overall1514
MEL
ELO difference: +75 in favour of Carlton

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1146Midfield1031
CAR +115
1092Forwards1068
CAR +24
1095Defence1068
CAR +27
1102Ruck965
CAR +136

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAR
Stat
MEL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.1
107.9pts
Avg Score
107.4pts
78.7pts
Avg Conceded
87.3pts
26.6pts
Avg Margin
1.4pts
339.3
Disposals
334.0
51.0
Inside 50s
57.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Carlton
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Carlton
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Carlton
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Carlton
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Carlton
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
Carlton
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

57%

Carlton predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 150 · Line: -4.8

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.12

Team Effectiveness

-0.29

3
Elite
7
Hard Worker
2
Efficient
11
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

2/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props