# Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 86 – 76 Western Bulldogs

_Brisbane Lions roar past Western Bulldogs in a tight one._

Half time: 46 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 58% / Western Bulldogs 42% · Gabba · Fri, 18 July, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Levi Ashcroft (3' 1st), Charlie Cameron (10' Tipped ⚡), Kai Lohmann (42' ×2), Will Ashcroft (46' ×3), Jarrod Berry (53' ×2), Logan Morris (80' Tipped ⚡) · Western Bulldogs: Rhylee West (6' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Tim English (8'), Aaron Naughton (51' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Riley Garcia (58'), Matthew Kennedy (70'), Sam Darcy (89' Tipped ⚡), Joel Freijah (83'), Marcus Bontempelli (87' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 58% | Won |
| Western Bulldogs | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 86–76 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 19 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Western Bulldogs did the clean, clinical stuff. They shaded the midfield battle emphatically, winning clearances 46 to 36, and they used the ball better all day, hitting targets at 72.6 per cent against Brisbane's 66.0. They out-tackled the home side too, 82 to 73. On paper, most of that should add up to a winning afternoon.

It didn't. Brisbane Lions beat them 86-76 at the Gabba, and the gap opened up in the areas that don't always make the highlights reel. The Bulldogs went into the game rated stronger everywhere: midfield, forwards, defence and ruck. The ruck contest is where that got turned on its head hardest. Brisbane won hit-outs 55 to 39 despite going in rated well behind at that position, 966 to 1145. Whatever plan the Bulldogs had for that battle didn't hold up.

The bigger story was territory. Brisbane went inside 50 sixty-four times to the Bulldogs' 44, a 20-entry gap that no amount of tidy disposal use was going to fully offset. Add in Brisbane's edge in marks, 86 to 74, and intercepts, 82 to 68, and you've got a side that spent the day camped closer to goal and picking off the footy in defence when it mattered. Clean hands matter less when you're not getting the ball to the right end of the ground often enough. Marks inside 50 were even, 12 apiece, so it wasn't about who took the grab in the goal square. It was about who got there more often.

The scoreboard tells the arc plainly enough. It was a genuine contest at quarter time, 14-13, before Brisbane extended the lead to 46-33 at the main break and 71-52 at the final change. That's a 19-point buffer heading into the last quarter, and to their credit the Bulldogs made a fight of the run home, outscoring Brisbane 24 to 15 in the last term to get within 10 points at the siren. Not enough, but not nothing either.

The pre-match form lines told a different story to what unfolded. The Bulldogs arrived with the better recent record, roughly 2.9 wins from their last five compared to Brisbane's 1.5, and a healthier average margin, around 13 points against Brisbane's 9. None of that travelled to the Gabba on the day.

Alphr's model actually had this one closer to right than the underlying ratings suggested it should be. The team ratings, 1513 for Brisbane against 1591 for the Bulldogs, pointed to a Western Bulldogs win by 2 points. But the model's own prediction leaned Brisbane at 58 per cent, and that's the side that held up. Brisbane won by 10, not lost by 2, so the margin call missed but the winner was right.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 14 | 32 | 25 | 15 | 86 |
| Western Bulldogs | 13 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 76 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **364** | Disposals | 339 |
| **166** | Contested poss. | 150 |
| 36 | Clearances | **46** |
| **64** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| **86** | Marks | 74 |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| 73 | Tackles | **82** |
| **55** | Hit-outs | 39 |
| **82** | Intercepts | 68 |
| 66.0% | Disposal eff. | **72.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 58% probability. The predicted margin of 2.0 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 165 was close to the actual 162, within 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 165.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.65 (edge -2.8%) — model probability 57.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 2 · Predicted total: 165

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | OR | Brisbane Lions | 106 – 111 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R5 | Western Bulldogs | 97 – 118 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | R13 | Western Bulldogs | 71 – 114 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2023 | R3 | Western Bulldogs | 67 – 53 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2022 | R16 | Brisbane Lions | 108 – 67 | Western Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 156 · 132 | 138 · 139 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 92/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.8/g | 15.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.8/g | 7.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 48 · 39 | 98 · 49 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 6.5/g |
| Disposals | 159/g | 178/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.8/g | 31.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.2% | 72.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 21 | 32 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.9/g | 10.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.6% | 79.4% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.55/g (lg 2.38) +7% · Key Forwards 3.5/g (lg 3.6) -3% · Forwards 3.84/g (lg 4.43) -13%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.39/g (lg 4.43) -1% · Key Forwards 3.36/g (lg 3.6) -7% · Midfielders 2.06/g (lg 2.38) -13%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 33 in 16g | 22/10g (2·0·3·2·2·0·5·5·1·2) | 5/2g | 26/15g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 23 in 17g | 7/10g (0·3·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 28/11g | 129/97g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 20 in 16g | 13/10g (1·3·1·1·4·1·1·0·1·0) | 6/8g | 34/60g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 20 in 15g | 16/10g (3·1·0·3·1·2·0·0·3·3) | 20/13g | 166/87g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 19 in 17g | 14/10g (0·3·0·2·1·2·1·3·0·2) | 7/7g | 73/78g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 70% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 9/12g | 66/99g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 8 in 12g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·0·2·1·1) | 1/1g | 20/22g | 60% | — | 🏉 42' 81' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 2/8g | 48% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 7/23g | 32% | — | 🏉 46' 64' 98' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 8g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·0·4·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 10/87g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 6 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 8/15g | 38/79g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/12g | 41/89g | 28% | — | 🏉 53' 85' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 11/28g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 6/37g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 39/83g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/2g | 6/17g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/34g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 17/20g | 130/149g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/62g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 4/113g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 23/109g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 36 in 17g | 24/10g (3·0·1·3·0·3·1·3·5·5) | 15/9g | 7/5g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' 73' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 31 in 11g | 30/10g (4·2·5·2·0·3·5·3·4·2) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 89' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 25 in 17g | 15/10g (2·2·4·1·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 4/3g | 2/1g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 39' 81' 95' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 19 in 17g | 12/10g (0·3·1·3·1·2·0·2·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/8g | 54% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 15 in 17g | 12/10g (2·1·2·2·1·1·1·0·0·2) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 14 in 12g | 12/10g (3·1·2·0·0·0·3·1·2·0) | 18/15g | 6/7g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 13 in 17g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·4·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 13 in 15g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 13 in 15g | 8/10g (0·2·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 12 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 10 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 10 in 17g | 9/10g (3·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·2·0) | 4/7g | 1/4g | 42% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 6/16g | 4/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 4/12g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/8g | 2/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 4/6g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Poulter | FWD | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Liam Jones | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Garcia | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 58' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.92 | 65% | 24 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 26 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 25.5 | $2.00 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 25.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 25 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 23.5 | $1.85 | 56% | 28 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 20.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 24 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $1.77 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 18 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 18.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 17 ✓ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.96 | 69% | 27 ✗ |
| Tom Liberatore | 25.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 23 ✓ |
| Bailey Dale | 25.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 33 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 24.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 24 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 22.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders | 18.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 20 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah | 18.5 | $1.78 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams | 18.5 | $1.83 | 55% | 18 ✓ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 17.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)