AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 58% probability. The predicted margin of 2.0 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 165 was close to the actual 162, within 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 165.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
58%
Western Bulldogs
42%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Western Bulldogs are far from out of this at 42%. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Brisbane Lions counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 77-point ELO rating advantage (1591 vs 1513). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 2.0 points with a combined total of 165.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.65
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.8%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.8%
Total Points
Under 165.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W L L L L | 78.8 |
Western Bulldogs | W W W L L | 74.6 |
Avg Conceded
91.8
Brisbane Lions
88.2
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
9.2
Brisbane Lions
13.1
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
360.1
Brisbane Lions
348.4
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
53.9
Brisbane Lions
43.4
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1591 vs 1513), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.65).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 165 · Line: -2.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.17
Team Effectiveness
-0.12
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.