# Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 19 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 107 – 46 Gold Coast SUNS

_Adelaide Crows put Gold Coast SUNS to the sword._

Half time: 59 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 87% / Gold Coast SUNS 13% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 20 July, 04:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Izak Rankine (5' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (16' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Berry (43'), Ben Keays (46' Tipped ⚡), Luke Pedlar (48'), Jordan Dawson (62'), Alex Neal-Bullen (68'), Daniel Curtin (94'), Final quarter (31m 41s)Riley Thilthorpe (71'), James Peatling (76'), Jake Soligo (87') · Gold Coast SUNS: Ethan Read (73' Tipped ⚡), Joel Jeffrey (79'), Sam Flanders (84'), Ben Ainsworth (88'), Ben King (91' Tipped ⚡), Jed Walter (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 87% | Won |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 30.8 predicted → 61 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 107–46 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 19 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast spent the day going forward. Adelaide spent it going forward efficiently. That gap is basically the whole match: the Suns had 52 inside 50s to the Crows' 46, more entries, more ambition, and finished with 46 points to Adelaide's 107. Volume without control doesn't win you anything.

The Crows' 112 marks to Gold Coast's 83 tells the same story from a different angle. Adelaide were taking the simple option, holding the footy, moving it with intent. Disposal efficiency backs it up too: 73.8% to 71.5%, not a huge gap on paper, but multiply that out over 357 disposals and it compounds fast.

The scoreboard did its damage early and never really let up. Adelaide led 21-2 at quarter time and had blown it out to 59-4 by half time, a period where Gold Coast barely registered. The Suns found some polish in the third term, adding 35 points to close within 87-39 at the last change, but by then the game was long decided. A tidy final quarter, 20 points to 7, just rounded out the margin.

Contested ball is usually where you'd expect a track meet like this to be settled, and Adelaide won that too, 125 to 114, along with the intercept count, 67 to 62. Gold Coast actually shaded the clearance count 38-37, which makes their inside 50 dominance make more sense: they were winning first use plenty, they just weren't doing anything clean with it once they got there. Marks inside 50 tell that story bluntly, 9 for Adelaide against 8 for the Suns, near identical entries but Adelaide made theirs count.

Hit-outs went the Crows' way too, 48 to 42, which lines up with the pre-match ruck rating edge, 1037 to 1003. Add the forward line rating, 1067 to 1018, and the gap between the two sides was written into the numbers before a ball was bounced.

Gold Coast came in with the better recent scoring average, 96.1 points to Adelaide's 93.8, and had actually conceded less on average across their last five, 81.6 to Adelaide's 90.4. None of that showed up here. Whatever they'd been doing well lately, it didn't survive contact with an Adelaide side that controlled the footy from the opening bounce.

Alphr's model had Adelaide at 87% to win and got that half right without much fuss. The margin was the part that got away from it: 30.8 points predicted, 61 delivered, and the total came in at 153 against a projected 188, some 35 points lower than expected. Adelaide covered the 21.5-point line with room to spare. Two out of three isn't a bad return on a game that turned into a rout, but the sheer gap between projected and actual margin is a reminder that even a strong favourite tip doesn't always tell you how far the favourite is going to run away with it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 21 | 38 | 28 | 20 | 107 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 2 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 46 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **357** | Disposals | 334 |
| **125** | Contested poss. | 114 |
| 37 | Clearances | **38** |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **52** |
| **112** | Marks | 83 |
| **9** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 55 | Tackles | 55 |
| **48** | Hit-outs | 42 |
| **67** | Intercepts | 62 |
| **73.8%** | Disposal eff. | 71.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 30.8 but the actual margin was 61 points. The game's 153 points came in 35 points lower than the predicted 188. The model went 2/3 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 21.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.30 (edge +10.6%) — model probability 87.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 31 · Predicted total: 188

### H2H History (Last 5) — Gold Coast SUNS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Adelaide Crows | 128 – 49 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2025 | R4 | Gold Coast SUNS | 91 – 90 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R1 | Gold Coast SUNS | 60 – 54 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2023 | R21 | Adelaide Crows | 89 – 61 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2023 | R12 | Gold Coast SUNS | 112 – 87 | Adelaide Crows |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 176 · 117 | 166 · 120 |
| Goal Assists | 5/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.2/g | 20.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.2/g | 9.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.7% | 67.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 64 · 42 | 35 · 43 |
| Goal Assists | 5.4/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 120/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.7/g | 21.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.9/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 16 | 18 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.4/g | 14.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.5% | 79.3% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.5/g (lg 1.27) +18% · Forwards 4.45/g (lg 4.42) +1% · Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.39) -2%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.38/g (lg 1.27) +9% · Midfielders 2.37/g (lg 2.39) -1% · Forwards 4.24/g (lg 4.42) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 39 in 17g | 20/10g (1·3·0·2·2·1·0·5·0·6) | 6/4g | 49/40g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 34 in 16g | 18/10g (2·3·4·1·2·0·0·1·2·3) | 12/6g | 111/67g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.88 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 27 in 17g | 15/10g (2·2·0·1·3·3·2·0·2·0) | 8/8g | 60/70g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 26 in 16g | 12/10g (2·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·2·2) | 47/15g | 277/124g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 37' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 23 in 17g | 15/10g (2·2·1·1·1·0·1·1·5·1) | 2/3g | 61/32g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 90' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 12 in 17g | 10/10g (3·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 4/9g | 25/50g | 42% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 11 in 17g | 5/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 11/21g | 40% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 9 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 6/14g | 38% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 8 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 16/43g | 28% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 5/17g | 30% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/9g | 20% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 18/17g | 55% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/35g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 4/37g | 24% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 8/75g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 18/63g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 2 in 9g | 5/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/11g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/43g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Chayce Jones | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 15/50g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/26g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/25g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/33g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 18/134g | 4% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 44 in 16g | 21/10g (1·3·2·2·1·1·2·3·4·2) | 14/7g | 7/5g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 91' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 28 in 15g | 15/10g (1·1·4·3·1·1·1·2·0·1) | 4/7g | 1/3g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 17 in 15g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·1·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 62% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 15 in 16g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·2·2·1) | 4/4g | 1/2g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 12 in 15g | 11/10g (1·1·2·2·0·0·2·2·1·0) | 7/9g | 4/9g | 64% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 11 in 12g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 10 in 15g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 7 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 9/11g | 11/14g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·2·1) | 3/7g | 0/5g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 5/6g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 2/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | David Swallow | FWD | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 5/10g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ben Jepson | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 73% | 20 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 23 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 24 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 21 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 19.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 25 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine | 18.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Ben Keays | 17.5 | $2.00 | 57% | 18 ✗ |
| Sam Berry | 17.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Daniel Curtin | 16.5 | $1.79 | 60% | 20 ✗ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 16.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 1 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 30.5 | $1.82 | 64% | 27 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.97 | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell | 23.5 | $1.96 | 61% | 30 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 80% | 28 ✗ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 19.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 28 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli | 18.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 11 ✓ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 74% | 12 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 17.5 | $1.82 | 58% | 22 ✗ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.85 | 66% | 16 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 15.5 | $1.79 | 52% | 10 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r19-adelaide-crows-v-gold-coast-suns
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)