AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 30.8 but the actual margin was 61 points. The game's 153 points came in 35 points lower than the predicted 188. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
87%
Gold Coast SUNS
13%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Gold Coast SUNS. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 30.8 points with a combined total of 188.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.6%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -21.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.6%
Total Points
Over 175.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W W L L | 93.8 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W L L | 96.1 |
Avg Conceded
90.4
Adelaide Crows
81.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
13.0
Adelaide Crows
10.1
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
361.8
Adelaide Crows
354.7
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
44.5
Adelaide Crows
43.2
Gold Coast SUNS
ELO–Market Disagreement
Gold Coast SUNS hold the ELO advantage (1518 vs 1515), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.30).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 31 points
Predicted total: 188 · Line: +30.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.36
Team Effectiveness
+0.21
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.